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Brexit

Westminstenders: Beano or Bust

978 replies

RedToothBrush · 29/09/2017 21:33

The last week has seemingly been eventful but not in the way that's on the surface.

It's what's going on behind the scenes and the little comments in less high profile speeches that's more telling.

On the one hand the Norths think the May speech is a laying down "an offer" that the EU can not accept, in order to set up a no deal situation.

On the other hand Telegraph Journalist Peter Foster thinks there things going on in Brussels with the EU set to compromise in someway and help May present a deal acceptable to the British. You have to wonder whether the "presentational" stuff is about a deal to essentially be in the EU but not in the EU. A Brexit Existing in A Name Only. Beano.

It's difficult to tell, and it will come down to brinkmanship over timing. For both a deal and for the Repel Bill as the two sides in parliament try to push things to their limit for their own ends.

In this vacuum of uncertainty CBI and their "arch enemies" the TUC have put out a joint statement saying no deal is nuts and will screw every one and the way EU cits have been treated has been dreadful.

As it stands it does look like May is serious about a deal and Davis is also acting in this way. Johnson and Hannan have launched their Institute for Free Trade (at the foreign office breaking ministerial code, but hell there's no consequences these days anyway cos May dare not let Johnson off the Brexit hook) in retaliation to try and retell the Brexit story as always being about free trade rather than racist. Unfortunately leavers seem to have bust that by admitting they are considerably more racist than Remainers by their own admission.

Then there's Trump and Bombardier. Just as Brexiteers are pushing for this closer relationship with the US in trade, despite May personally lobbying Trump he fucks her over slapping 220% tariff on Bombardier and putting the future of 4000 jobs at risk. This was inevitable as Trump fucks everyone for his own gain. The US won't ride to the aid of the British capitalists. They'll just eat them alive.

This week sees an important vote by the European Parliament on Brexit red lines. One of the votes states that the UK has to either stay in the customs union and internal market or NI has to have a special arrangement and stay in the customs union and the internal market in order to protect the EUs border integrity. Neither is compatible with what the Cons and the DUP have said they want.

It's also the Tory Party conference.May's big speech, in which she must throw red meat to the swivel eyed loons on right, is on Weds. There are of course, no debates at ConParty because, well, they can't behave like good little children without supervision. Instead the conference is to, erm... yeah we'll find out next week.

OP posts:
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BigChocFrenzy · 07/10/2017 10:56

Reportedly both Leavers & Remainers are pushing for her to go
Several reasons:

+She's a dead women walking
+All Tories fear a 1997-style Labour landslide with the bogeyman JC as PM - some of them think swapping their figurehead will help
+Some on both sides see a Brexit coming on terms they can't accept - or fear it's not coming at all.
+It's the last chance for some older Tories - DD, Bojo - to become PM, even if only for a couple of years until a GE

It depends how many still want to "keep tight hold of nurse, for fear of finding something worse"
However, it only takes 48 MPs to call for her to go and then their rules state there has to be a vote

BigChocFrenzy · 07/10/2017 10:58

Tory leadership rules:

If there are 48 letters to the 1922 Committee calling for a leader to go - these can come in dribs & drabs, it's the total that matters -
then there is a straight vote of MPs
There is no way to avoid a vote if that happens

"Leader to go: Yes / No"

If she gets anything but a large majority of Yeses, she's politically finished and would probably have to step down

  • Mrs T actually won her vote, but not by enough

If the Nos win, then the leader is barred from standing again
So, May cannot do as John Major did when his leadership was in trouble and engineer a leadership contest, then win

i.e. there would definitely be a new PM
.... who would inevitably be in a weak position until they call a GE
.... which would probably result in another hung parliament - most of the public still thinks Brexit is simple and fairly painless without a trade deal.

BigChocFrenzy · 07/10/2017 10:59

< MrsT won a vote under the old rules, not a Yes/No, but still couldn't continue >

HesterThrale · 07/10/2017 11:08

Bigchoc I'm not sure there'd be another hung parliament. Even if people still think Brexit would be simple and painless, surely they can't believe May's mantra: 'a country that works for everyone'? We're in such a mess.

BigChocFrenzy · 07/10/2017 11:28

Hester I'm looking at the latest opinion poll

YouGov

Fieldwork 4-5 October, so after That Speech
but maybe things will change after it sinks in

CON 42 (up 1 - just the usual variation though)
LAB 40
LDEM 7

Best PM Hmm
May 36
JC 33
DK 32 (so some opportunity for change)

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/10/06/voting-intention-conservatives-40-labour-42-4-5-oc/

I think Leavers are grimly clinging to their vote and
almost all will continue to do so until they personally are clearly damaged by Brexit

  • even then rather than climbing down and admit their vote was a mistake,
most will probably blame the EU for punishment or a post-Brexit Labour govt, if there is one, for cocking up their glorious Brexit

The authoritarian preferences of most Leave voters were the most defining characteristic, more than age, education, income etc
and that demographic is the most difficult to convince that they have made mistake - or at least to admit to it and to change

BigChocFrenzy · 07/10/2017 11:39

(paywall) The terrible truth is that May’s advert for Strepsils is as good as she gets

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-terrible-truth-is-that-may-s-advert-for-strepsils-is-as-good-as-she-gets-89nsj6f00
....
No one wants Mrs May to be leader, but faced with the alternatives few want her to resign either.
Most Tories just want the PM to be better.
I’d like to be better at football, French and humility, but life’s not like that.

No amount of crossed fingers or rubbing of lamps is going to make true the dream that a better May is coming.
The woman who lacked dynamism, imagination and quick-wittedness in the Home Office,
or when she first became PM, or during the election, or after it,
is not going to change now.

Some hope that she will find someone else to be her new Nick Timothy, to write her speeches and think her thoughts.
This empty vessel theory does us all a disservice.

< it does seem like she is a puppet, who has lost her puppet-masters
- but Imo the problem is that an unruly gang of puppet-masters are squabbling over her, so her string are jerking in all directions >

woman11017 · 07/10/2017 11:46

hester this article makes an interesting book end with that one in Prospect.
This one, in Spanish (reposting with the right link Blush)
The opinion of a Dutch entrepreneur in Catalonia Why we will leave Catalonia
Writer speaks of weariness at nationalism and a new intolerance in Catalonia. Very reminiscent of brexit britain.

www.expansion.com/opinion/2017/10/06/59d7672ee2704e625e8b4587.html

I agree with red earlier.
They won't let May go. They can't.

HesterThrale · 07/10/2017 11:56

Thanks for the Yougov link Bigchoc.
Depressing that the Tories' support is STILL holding up.

Eeeeeowwwfftz · 07/10/2017 12:00

Hester - thanks. BigChoc - I'm hoping that in the event (possibly unlikely) that Labour did get to take over exit negotiations they would stay true to their public position and immediately guarantee eu citizen rights which I think would go a long way to buying a lot of goodwill with the negotiators and possibly an extension to the deadline.... but there's a lot of ifs in there. However I'm slightly reassured by this being a fairly unequivocal public statement.

Interesting how public opinion is being so stubborn though. Despite the calamities going on in the Tory party still 40% of people are happy to vote for them...

woman11017 · 07/10/2017 12:02

I imagine that recent poll was a sympathy vote for a law breaking child deporter and racist with a cold.

lonelyplanetmum · 07/10/2017 12:17

BigChoc

I don't believe that poll. 42% still would vote for this government.Unbelievable.There are lots of people out there though who just aren't really interested. A school Mum I was talking to yesterday, highly educated and apparently a remain voter but sort of casually indifferent to what is going on.

BigChocFrenzy · 07/10/2017 12:24

I think the EU are anxious that the progress on citizens rights and the bill would be kept, so that they don't have to go back to the beginning
(v little progress on NI afaik)
Trade is another matter, because talks on that haven't started and probably won't progress much if ever they do start - under this govt.

However, if a Labour gov took over - BEFORE Brexit - but after a WTO or no-deal, the EU would probably agree to reset the A50 clock wrt trade, especially if a Labour govt wanted to explore EEA / EFTA options

AFTER Brexit, the only option would be to accelerate application to EEA / EFTA.
Negotiations for that would take years, but a transition for EFTA accession could be fairly quick if there was agreement on a basic framework
(It's the transition for leaving a trade bloc that takes time - afaik noone in the world, except for the one superpower, has seriously considered doing so)

woman11017 · 07/10/2017 12:29

@britainelects Oct 6

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 42% (-1)
CON: 40% (+1)
LDEM: 7% (-)
UKIP: 4% (-)
GRN: 2% (-)

Worth remembering that the 45th is on 39% right now.

There's nowt so queer as folk.

BigChocFrenzy · 07/10/2017 12:31

Let's wait for polls taken after May's weakness and the leadership chaos has sunk in

  • most people won't pay much attention until it's been repeated umpteen times

However, as I think Jim Callahan said:
Sometimes there are turning points when politics shifts in the country at large
Once this happens, a govt or leader loses any power to stop this and their power haemorrages away

A party is trundling along, seemingly immune to all the problems, them suddenly the public mood changes
and the govt is plummeting down an ever steeper slope, until they crash over the cliff edge and are out of power for 10-20 years.

We haven't reached that critical load yet
and it may not even happen until after Brexit

RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 12:35

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3053813-Westminstenders-Zombies-dont-have-friends-Is-Johnson-the-de-facto-PM-now?watched=1

New thread, with my assessment of the current status quo.

I don't think that May will go yet. I did a couple of days ago. Look at who has got what to gain / lose and what they fear most. There is nothing for the Tory Right to gain from a leadership contest and the Liberal section of the party still think they can control / contain the right.

OP posts:
LurkingHusband · 07/10/2017 13:21

I've just ordered another £750 pair (mostly cost of lenses) to cope with MN small font on my new iPad Pro 12.9"

Have you tried playing with the accessibility settings ? Treble tapping with 3 fingers to selectively zoom. Plus letting it read things out for you?

MrsLH attends a local low-vision resource centre, and the volunteers there have been very helpful in getting the max out of her iPad Pro.

Google assistant is slowly starting to be a little bit useful too.

BigChocFrenzy · 07/10/2017 14:34

Yes, LH all the accessibility settings
Safari can magnify, but for MN, the App is much handier and that won't magnify at all

The Mumsnet App doesn't allow zooming in, at keast not on my iPad Pro 12,9" - which I chose thinking I would be able to read more easily (after my Air 2 had incurable St Vtus Dance)
If anything, the font size on MN is smaller

It is a particular problem when posting, where font size is tiny

I also noticed that on iPad Pro it is near impossible to add photos - the photo library is now listed in a stream of single photos at the side, instead of in several rows (my library has 1600 photos; hence impractical to scroll down a single column)

GRRRR
Never mind, the new specs with all my special features should arrive about a week after ordering - German opticians / manufacturers are incredibly quick

OlennasWimple · 07/10/2017 14:34

I want to get rid of food banks altogether, because I want work to pay a decent wage and benefits not just to pay a decent amount but be administered in a timely and joined up manner (my understanding is that many foodbank users have found themselves in a short term fix because they have had an over-payment that is suddenly being clawed back, or their benefits have been stopped for an obscure reason but they will start again shortly)

BigChocFrenzy · 07/10/2017 14:41

Or they have to wait 6 weeks without any money, while being switched to Universal Credit
And benefits have been cut back so sharply that many people can't build up a little emergency reserve.

Mind you, apparently most of the country would be in terrible difficulties in they had to miss more than 2 months pay

There are still posters who demand why those in difficulties didn't have savings. I particularly remember on poster who said she didn't know anyone without 3 months savings and implied didn't believe it could happen without gross fecklessness.

There used to be emergency council loans, but they were abolished along time ago.
I appreciate loans are tricky for those who can't manage their money, but many others are very capable financially - they just have far too little money available to manage,

woman11017 · 07/10/2017 15:50

Ashamed to say this one was in the Daily Heil. But a school where children are 'debtors', gives them bread and fruit for lunch, rather than a meal.
What a very peculiar country this is.

Westminstenders: Beano or Bust
Somerville · 07/10/2017 16:00

Fucking hell. The letter even references it as an embarrassment for the children.

A voluntary aided Catholic school, too. Shock The church should be stepping in before it comes to half-starving and shaming children.

RhiannonOHara · 07/10/2017 16:05

I dimly remember a similar story a while ago, in an academy I think. It boggles the mind.

BigChocFrenzy · 07/10/2017 16:55

Yes, there was an academy run by a Tory favourite,
a former teacher who blogged about how she was forced out of her school - teaching methods / enforcing discipline - and spoke at the Tory conference a few years ago.

She now heads an academy which charges in advance for the term’s meals.
Vegetarian, no packed lunches allowed
Parents who are late paying, keep getting letters demanding payment
The kids receive a simpler meal, so they are easily identifiable.

Her name begins with B, iirc.

lalalonglegs · 07/10/2017 17:02

It was the Michaela School which seems, imo, to operate a bit like a cult. The headteacher is Katherine Birbalsingh - so well remembered BigChoc Star.

pointythings · 07/10/2017 17:13

Ah yes, the Michaela school. On which an Academy in Great Yarmouth is now modelled. And if that were my catchment school, I would home educate even if that meant living in a ditch with my kids. These are schools designed by people who hate children.