Westminstenders: Beano or Bust

[RedToothBrush]

The last week has seemingly been eventful but not in the way that's on the surface.

It's what's going on behind the scenes and the little comments in less high profile speeches that's more telling.

On the one hand the Norths think the May speech is a laying down "an offer" that the EU can not accept, in order to set up a no deal situation.

On the other hand Telegraph Journalist Peter Foster thinks there things going on in Brussels with the EU set to compromise in someway and help May present a deal acceptable to the British. You have to wonder whether the "presentational" stuff is about a deal to essentially be in the EU but not in the EU. A Brexit Existing in A Name Only. Beano.

It's difficult to tell, and it will come down to brinkmanship over timing. For both a deal and for the Repel Bill as the two sides in parliament try to push things to their limit for their own ends.

In this vacuum of uncertainty CBI and their "arch enemies" the TUC have put out a joint statement saying no deal is nuts and will screw every one and the way EU cits have been treated has been dreadful.

As it stands it does look like May is serious about a deal and Davis is also acting in this way. Johnson and Hannan have launched their Institute for Free Trade (at the foreign office breaking ministerial code, but hell there's no consequences these days anyway cos May dare not let Johnson off the Brexit hook) in retaliation to try and retell the Brexit story as always being about free trade rather than racist. Unfortunately leavers seem to have bust that by admitting they are considerably more racist than Remainers by their own admission.

Then there's Trump and Bombardier. Just as Brexiteers are pushing for this closer relationship with the US in trade, despite May personally lobbying Trump he fucks her over slapping 220% tariff on Bombardier and putting the future of 4000 jobs at risk. This was inevitable as Trump fucks everyone for his own gain. The US won't ride to the aid of the British capitalists. They'll just eat them alive.

This week sees an important vote by the European Parliament on Brexit red lines. One of the votes states that the UK has to either stay in the customs union and internal market or NI has to have a special arrangement and stay in the customs union and the internal market in order to protect the EUs border integrity. Neither is compatible with what the Cons and the DUP have said they want.

It's also the Tory Party conference.May's big speech, in which she must throw red meat to the swivel eyed loons on right, is on Weds. There are of course, no debates at ConParty because, well, they can't behave like good little children without supervision. Instead the conference is to, erm... yeah we'll find out next week.

Sorry bold failure on phone.Trying to persuade LH against a non voting stance.

LH it is really no good thinking like that! People not voting was partially responsible for creating this mess in the first place.

I have never not voted. I may be a lot of things, but you can't accuse me of that.

If a JC-led Labour feels it has to do what the Tories say, then I guess it's time to brush off my LibDem coat of many colours.

I don't know if this is an apocryphal tale or not, but in a local by election there were more spoilt ballots than legitimate votes cast, and the election had to be declared void and re-run.

I just came across this chart showing really clearly the damage brexit will do to the EU. It is particularly interesting as it shows the impact of different types of brexit. I believe it was originally published as part of a report in the Lancet. I saw it on twitter: twitter.com/HealthierIn/status/916572977092878344

Horrendous reports from MrsH, like something from the 1930s

• where some wish to return: the poor starved and were truly punished for being poor.

Whenever there are foodbank threads on here, the hard right Brexit crew always jump in and post the standard bot lines:

"of course food bank use increases when you offer free food"
"I know someone personally who has 2 cars, 5 foreign holidays a year, never does a stroke of work. I know they'd use foodbanks"

Well some very wealthy trustafarians do choose not to work, but they don't use food banks - or donate to them

but they don't use food banks - or donate to them
But probably would if they could get away with it; they never pass up anything free.

It's very hard to change the narrative though, and when you have a PM who says there is no magic money tree, (for certain groups of people), it's an uphill struggle to make people see that being compassionate benefits us all.

bigly I think you mean damage to medicine and healthcare in the Uk, not EU ?

btw, I've posted analyses carried out for the Swedish and German govts and neither raise healthcare for E27 as the slightest concern

• mainly just consequences of a major trade partner being screwed up

You are right bigchoc. Excuse my typos

There's always a magic money tree when it comes to tax cuts though
Since these have to be accompanied by raising personal allowance for all - to make it politically acceptable - the argument of a net gain to the Exchequer looks a lot less convincing

Tory govt always cherrypick figures for a certain group at the top, to claim lowering the top tax rate increased income,
conveniently ignoring that they also had to reduce tax on everyone, which will be politically toxic to raise in the future, when there is a Brexit-shaped hole in govt finances

Bigly With my visual handicap, my typos are rampant
I should probably leave the frequent autocorrect of "Gories" for Tories (- is this a common iPad thing ?)

I've just ordered another £750 pair (mostly cost of lenses) to cope with MN small font on my new iPad Pro 12.9"

• LH will probably now post a fix for this - which I couldn't find because I can hardly see the effing thing

Molly scott cato mep @ mollymep
It's EU27 governments that are being firmest on #Brexit talks, not the Big Bad Commission

One EU Ambassador: 'Not our job to save the Tory party'

Laurent pech @ profpech
One EU Ambassador: 'Not our job to save the Tory party'

amp.ft.com/content/9229c870-aab3-11e7-93c5-648314d2c72c
Germany rejects May’s Brexit transition hopes

Eeeeeowwwfftz, I tried to summarise my (5th Sept) reply from Labour Head Office, but it seems better to copy it all. Basically they reject the 'no-deal option:

^'Labour accept the referendum result and recognise that Britain is leaving the EU. But unlike the Conservatives, we believe
that jobs and the economy must come first in the negotiations. That means rejecting ‘no deal’ as a viable option, negotiating strong transitional arrangements to ensure there is no cliff-edge for the economy and putting much greater emphasis on retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union.

Labour will not accept any watering down of workers’ rights and environmental standards as a result of Brexit. We will seek significant improvements to the Government’s Repeal Bill to ensure there is proper oversight of the use of new powers and no drop in EU rights and protections.

We are also clear that we would unilaterally guarantee rights for EU nationals living in the UK and seek reciprocal rights for UK nationals living in the EU. The Prime Minister’s limited and conditional offer is too little, too late.

We will seek a strong, collaborative new relationship with the EU – not as members but as partners. This means changing the tone of the negotiations, and seeking to remain a member of common European agencies that benefit the UK such as Europol, Eurojust and the Erasmus scheme.

The Prime Minister has no mandate or parliamentary majority for her Brexit strategy. Her belligerent approach has left Britain without allies or good will across Europe. As a result, Britain enters negotiations in the worst possible position.

The Prime Minister must now change her approach. She must drop ‘no deal’ as a viable option and put much stronger emphasis on jobs, the economy and retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union. She must also bring Parliament back into the Brexit process – it is vital that Parliament is involved throughout the negotiations, including through a truly meaningful vote on the final deal.

Only a Labour Government can prevent a reckless Tory Brexit, build a close and collaborative future relationship with the EU and deliver a Brexit deal that protects jobs, the economy, rights and living standards. As we hold this weak and unstable Tory administration to account on Brexit, we stand ready to take over the negotiations and to secure the best deal for Britain.'^

So..... a lot of sense here, although I still don't want to leave the EU! You can write a policy enquiry to Labour Head Office using this link if you want. It's important we let them know the opinions of potential Labour voters.

www.labour.org.uk/pages/contact

I'd prefer adding more graduated tax rates at the top end
We need more public spending, which means more tax or more borrowing

Thanks for that Hester that's useful. Labour's position will be as nimble as necessary, hopefully.

I've just ordered another £750 pair (mostly cost of lenses) to cope with MN small font

Yikes, you have my sympathy. I am horrendously short-sighted and spent £400 on my last pair of glasses. I now live in fear of breaking them.

I wouldn't expect JC - or any later Labour leader - to accept a WTO Brexit

I suspect that, even if the Tories deliberately & cynically time the GE so that Labour only have a month or two before Brexit,

a Labour PM could still appeal to the E27 for an emergency stop and reset the A50 clock, to give time for a much more sensible Brexit negotiation.
That should be doable

It is true that the E27 really do want a reasonable deal with the UK; it's just they are not prepared to wreck the Single Market, on which their prosperity depends, to do so.

They'd leap an opportunity to negotiate with a govt that actually wants a non-destructive deal
which would probably be EEA`/EFTA with bells on - it would give JC & co the freedom they (wrongly) think they wouldn't have in the EU

'...being compassionate benefits us all'. Yes Peregrina I agree.
I reckon one day they'll realise that the UK's low and decreasing productivity is a result of working people not feeling happy, respected, properly rewarded or well-treated.

being compassionate benefits us all'. Yes Peregrina I agree

In 2012 1,046,398 sanctions were applied to people who were claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance

The failure to make as many job applications as their nominated advisor demanded in a week receives a harsher punishment for the benefits claimant than shoplifting. It then results in shoplifting as people have to eat. Even taking out-of-date food from supermarket waste-bins counts as shoplifting today

blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/creating-a-more-equal-society-through-kindness/?
utmcontent=buffer4b8df&utmmedium=social&utmsource=twitter.com&utmcampaign=buffer

^And laudable plea for compassion and kindness. I'd vote for a 'kind' party in an instant right now.

Some one mentioned up thread meetings Labour have been having with EU officials for over a year.

One wonders what has been agreed behind the scenes, and how far the the version labour is presenting to its lexity supporters is for their consumption only?

As with everything in politics, timing is all. Catalonia could be critical to what EU27 is prepared to put up with from this island.

Tom Boadle @ tomboadle
NEW: Sky News has contacted 285 Tory MPs, of the 103 who replied, just 3 called for the PM to go imminently

news.sky.com/story/amp/only-three-mps-call-for-theresa-may-to-resign-imminently-sky-poll-finds-11069763

Charles Grant @ CER_Grant
I hear UK has given in on almost everything on citizens rights - which is good

Good PR if there is no chance of a deal. We have been generous without intent and real commitment.

Remember this includes ECJ commitment...

Oh theres a second tweet

Charles Grant @ CER_Grant
EU will take compromise May proposed e.g. Direct effect of withdrawal agreement plus consultations of ECJ

BBC news:
“Theresa May has said she has the “full support of her cabinet” after a former party chairman said there should be a leadership contest.”

That's usually a deathknell

If she sacks Bojo, she's gone before Christmas
If she doesn't sack him - she's gone before Christmas

Thats one analysis. There is another... shes hostage of the right who have staged a coup detat and will prop her up, using Corbyn as the thing to hold it together.

This is a depressing view of Brexit from a Dutch resident, which contains many home truths. Says the UK should leave the EU, and it's hard to disagree with his reasons:

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/how-i-learnt-to-loathe-england

Property Spotter @ propertspotter
Are you hearing the UK is shifting on Ireland?

Charles Grant @ CER_Grant
I see no solution to Ireland problem. So I expect border controls

And no deal.