Westminstenders: The Negotiations Continue - The DUP ones

[RedToothBrush]

Tomorrow is the Queen’s Speech. In honour of that the start of this thread is written in its honour:

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Immigration is bad. Except for that good immigration.
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Brexit means Brexit
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Pilot scheme.
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Money for –the DUP-- NI
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Brexit means Brexit
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The Internet is Bad. Newspapers are good.
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Brexit means Brexit.
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Britain wave your flag.
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(The Queen’s turns over the page to read the back of the A4 sheet, only to find it blank)

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/enough-is-enough-lets-stop-brexit-before-it-does-irrevocable-damage

Professor Graylings eloquent exposition of the phrase "too late"

Looks like the old trope about not knowing history might apply to May ..

www.thecanary.co/2017/06/21/queen-delivered-extraordinary-snub-theresa-may-last-time-happened-government-collapsed/

In scenes not witnessed since 1974, the Queen’s Speech has been reduced to little more than a press conference. The super-casual Queen’s speech is a snub Her Majesty has never deployed since, until now. The echoes of history are loud and clear.

(contd)

They couldn't even be bothered conjuring up a fainting pageboy this time around.

Manufacturing businesses that import or export EU components e.g car firms, can't cope with going through customs, because their parts must arrive on time

One suggestion is for UK not to impose any customs checks on EU imports
However, under WTO rules, the EU legally cannot reciprocate and allow in UK imports without customs checks that are comparable to those for imports from the rest of the world

Neither the UK nor France have the infrastructure to handle the huge increase in checking UK exports
France anyway has no interest in paying hundreds of millions to build them - the UK would have to pay.

Leavers Richard North and Christopher Booker have researched the likely consequences and they are very bleak:
chaos at our ports
Operation Stack

Marking place , although returning to lurking as meds have made me come over all Father Jack

Arse!
Feck!
Drink!

Quite apt for this shitshow tbh....

I am fascinated by the semiotics of the Queen's robes.

Following her sombre birthday message I'd imagine she feels it's inappropriate to be ostentatious in turbulent times like these. We have lost many lives in a short timespan due to terrorism and unsafe housing. The Finsbury attack must have been influenced by the appalling xenophobic public rhetoric the government have brought about. The scaling down of royal attire is very appropriate imho.

Also it is incredibly hot and HRH is quite elderly. I am not surprised she was driven in a car with air con rather than rocking up in a carriage.

I wonder when May will go and what will replace her.

Important fact to remember is that the EU has been very good at negotiating a good deal for themselves and outsmarting the other side - ask Canada and their disappointed meat industry, now CETA is in action.

In contrast, even the DUP sneers at the pathetic negotiating ability of the Tory party.
Unfortunately, the Tories are in charge and have kicked out any civil servants who dare "tell truth to power"

We have seen already how DD made a massive climb down and accept Barnier's talks scheduling:
No "row of the summer" just a damp squib and DD claiming it doesn't matter
A portent of future climbdowns ? He received much less criticism than expected for that.

Now, trade will not be discussed until the Barnier is satisfied that a basic agreement has been reached on the EU priorities:
Expats, bills and Ireland (the border will affect the type of trade arrangement)

These complex topics would take a long time even if DD knew what he was doing.
There is a growing possibility that as October 2018 approaches - the last date by which a deal must be submitted to the 38 national and regional parliaments for approval - trade talks won't even have started.
And / or the UK hasn't progressed beyond "cake and eat it"

With that deadline, the UK govt - whichever party is then in power - has to decide:
Remain
or crash out with no trade deal.

Even at that stage, the UK might get a time extension to negotiate EEA / EFTA - or Barnier & the E27 may be too fed up to want this to drag on.

That's the issue I think
For the Tories their choices appear to be David Davies, liam fox, bojo or [spit] gove
Better the devil you know?
One wonders who they are hoping will swing in and save the day?...
Hammond is very present again all of a.sudden

My understanding is that they could negotiate an extension now. But the more time we leave to do it the weaker we are

Negotiation doesnt really seem to be their strong point tbh...

How very dare you. I'm sure they've ensured they get the correct tea and biscuits at the right time.

That's enough for the first month. Next month agreement on what's for dinner. We are winners don't forget that.

Brexiters keep saying the UK holds the power ...
but then say that if the govt decided to revoke A50 and ask to Remain, then the UK would have to suddenly accept conditions like the Euro and the (invented) Euro army.
Rubbish

The E27 would be exasperated, but even DD should be able to get an agreement that we return on the same terms as before, with all optouts and rebates.
The Uk does have sufficient clout for that, if the govt has a clue how to use it - and doesn't go into headless chicken mode.

The danger is that one of the 27 could veto the revocation.
However, with the threat of this going to the ECJ, this is a case where Germany and France could indeed muscle any awkward small country to acquiesce.
It's not certain, but it is probable.

BUT they would probably require a written guarantee that the UK won't try a Brexit for at least say 15 years. Maybe add a ridiculous penalty on, to head off a future govt breaking this deal.
If they suspect A50 could happen every GE, then the UK will be out on its arse.

View from Germany is that an extension is NOT acceptable atm, because:

+the delay is entirely the fault of the UK govt arsing around
+there is no reason to believe one is needed, because the EU only offers in / out (where "out" could be EEA / EFTA, but not a unicorn)

If Barnier reports at a later date that the UK govt has changed policy and is committed to negotiating the best EDA / EFTA, then that is when an extension is likely.

+the delay is entirely the fault of the UK govt arising around
Costs money, delays. "Money talks, bullshit walks" Spinal Tap.
If I had a better Father Ted quote, I'd use it.

The 2 year deadline is one of several reasons why the Uk position is much weaker than most in the UK seems to realise
There is no time to negotiate a unicorn, even if the E27 were prepared to do so - they won't

The A50 was literally defined to only settle the mechanics of leaving, not what comes after, wrt trade.
I don't know if this was deliberate sabotage, or the authors were too hoity-toity to think of trade, or just assumed leaving meant EEA / EFTA, at least as step 1.

Enjoyed (in a fairly bleak way) reading the selection of DD's tweets from this time last year, posted up thread.

Someone should run a regular 'on this day' column, extracting what the most prominent leavers were tweeting 12 months ago and comparing it with the sad reality that is rolling out. It's mind blowing that they can have been (and continue to be) so incompetent and delusional.

Tom Newton Dunn‏***@tnewtondunn*

Huge concession by PM: Scottish Parliament could well have to vote to authorise Great Repeal Bill. So, Scots have power to block Brexit.

Huh what?? No only the Great Repeal Act.

Tom Newton Dunn‏***@tnewtondunn*
This means: Holyrood could vote down GRB for Scotland only, which UK Govt respects by convention but can override. So constitutional havoc.

Steve Peers‏*@StevePeers*

Triggering Article 50 leads to Brexit as a matterof EU law. If no Repeal Bill EU law still applies as a matter of domestic law.

Tom Newton Dunn‏***@tnewtondunn*
Theresa May cracks a bad joke about Scotland and pandas, greeted by a very visible yawn by Boris Johnson on front bench. Risky etiquette.

Paul Waugh‏*@paulwaugh*
I asked No.10 earlier if Salisbury Convention applies to minority govt manifesto. Now got answer: 'View of Govt lawyers is it does apply'.

Good luck with that one... (remembers the a50 High Court case and May's track record with courts).

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/21/at-least-750-whitehall-policy-experts-to-relocate-to-brexit-departments-jeremy-heywood
At least 750 Whitehall policy experts to relocate to Brexit departments
Memos indicate no extra resources for process, with head of civil service asking senior staff to prepare for quick move

Shouldn't we have already done this????

Biscuits are important!
And probably the only thing we will have left by 2019....

Also it is incredibly hot and HRH is quite elderly. I am not surprised she was driven in a car with air con rather than rocking up in a carriage.

She was wearing a dress with an large overcoat. I'm not sure the 'too hot' argument works with that.

Biscuits are important!
And probably the only thing we will have left by 2019....

I thought we were selling those.

...though that was jam?....

Jam, biscuits, scones, cheddar cheese...

...all high market price items...
🤔
Hardly a merc is it?

"She was wearing a dress with an large overcoat. I'm not sure the 'too hot' argument works with that." Yes that did look warm and uncomfortable. I'd like to believe the EU coloured hat was a snub. Being driven by car was probably because of the terror risk.