Westministenders: Strong and Stable Theresa Date with Destiny

[RedToothBrush]

WELLLLL

Its just before 2.00am.

So far its the YouGov model all the way. Still a long way to go but, the Cons are not getting the top of their target list and Labour are doing very well in seats they just 'shouldn't be'.

Corbyn is now favourite to take the poison chalice of Brexit, but they may not be the largest party yet.

This is looking right now like 1974 not 1983.

May's potted regardless. I look forward to her resignation speech. Its still entirely possible that our next government is a Tory Minority under another leader.

The LDs are having a rough night so far. They are loosing deposits all over the place as they are squeezed out. But they still might hold the balance of power yet. Though they are pledged not to go into coalition.

Another election in the autumn? Brexit delayed and going soft and squishy?

I was taking about the democratic services council staff who organise the elections peregrina. They have had a crazy hard job.

prettybird I'm afraid I thought exactly the same thing. Ditto 'strong and stable' haircut.

I don't want to feel the hate against individuals but May whips that up so this is tough (but true) from Owen Jones in The Guardian about her: "a wretched dishonest excuse of a politician, don’t pity her".

May is going to piss off journalists AGAIN with this. Now the honeymoon is over the journalists will be after the story. The story is 'May in trouble and crisis at no 10'. Silence only seems to emphasis, so they chase harder. If May thinks she can lie low and let it blow over, she's wrong. Unlike other crisis Brexit has no end in sight and it is the policy of the moment.

She's crackers. We will do what the US are doing and lurch from crisis to crisis now. With it getting every more ugly from the press.

MPs have lost their respect and she has lose her authority to slap them down. Saying that they can't force her out just prolongs the inevitable. They know it. But they want Brexit through first. A car crash is also inevitable as it will be the only way she can do it and the hard right put it above all reason.

Agreed. I can't see her having sleepless nights about anything apart from herself. Ditto most of the Tory cabinet

they are recruited by the councils organising the election I may write to thank. It's felt so precious, the democracy, this time.

I am also so looking forward to a time when we don't have to think about politics. Might not be for a little while yet. I like your suggestion of how DD etc could take a day off LH

prettybird I share your DH's worry (from a million posts back on last night's thread) about the re igniting of sectarianism in Scotland, I knew it well a while ago, and it doesn't take much to flare up. Class and religion.

The election of so many women and more MPs with disabilities is a cheery aspect of this new intake.

Right now I think JC's job is to act the statesman while the tories do what they've always done to each other.

I want the eu to reach out to our young. Offer them individual membership- why should they suffer like the rest of us?

I floated this as a possibility last year. I also suggested it could be frustrated by the sheer spite of extreme Brexiteers ... I'm not sure of the mechanics of it all, but given their media trope that anyone who isn't a Brexiter is a traitor, it could be very nasty.

Bigchoc They were saying that the big guns of the conservative party evaporated after the exit poll. Not one commented through the night....

woman In the absence of the above we had the Labour party MPs like Chuka and Yvette 'Why I loved Jeremy all along and would be prepared to serve if asked" show, all evading the question, apart from Lammy who stuck to his anti Brexit guns, about why they had changed their mind I may be being bitter that Chuka evaded the question with some story about his wife

Guy V floated the idea of an EU passport for quite a while. It's beyond his remit but it had a popular response even if totally ruled out for now. It's blindingly obvious that there was a 48% Remain vote and a lot of lies in the campaign that persuaded the leavers (and the EU know ALL about Nigel Farage - are trying to get some of their money back). They can argue that a lot of Britons want a soft Brexit and they are more interested in citizen rights than TM et al.

Anyone reminded of Les Dawson playing the piano? I'm now thinking that campaign was bad accidentally-on-purpose.

I was hopeful about the EU citizenship suggestion last year, but EU experts have apparently found it would be very complicated legally and practically to do this if the UK becomes a "third country"

I was hopeful about the EU citizenship suggestion last year, but EU experts have apparently found it would be very complicated legally and practically to do this if the UK becomes a "third country"

The very fair argument being "well, if EU citizenship was that important to you, you should have stayed in the EU". Especially when a lot of EU citizens (like myself) believe that one of the cornerstones of the EU is the FOM/EU citizenship. Why should the UK be able to cherry pick that ?

ron it is Chuka's loss.

RhythmAndStealth I love Les Dawson, he was a renaissance man, . To play the piano 'badly' he had to have skill and intelligence, whereas May..........

it could be very nasty
I am sure I am being completely naive, but, following the heroism of Manchester, London, the One Love concert, and JC's party in the park in Birmingham, I wonder if 'nasty' is just a bit uncool now. It didn't win many votes last night....... 10% Labour swing in my tory cabinet minister, *bag's constituency.

Nasty just looks vulgar to the EU27.

^Sam Freedman‏*@Samfr*
Another significant ramification of last night's results is the SNP have no safe seats left which makes a Labour majority viable next time.^

Only thing that saved the SNP last night was that there was some concern about best tactical vote. Even so they have several seats on majorities of 100 - 2. If Labour sticks to current manifesto Scotland is back to being the brains of the Operations for the Conservatives and Labour and the LibDems.

(Anyone accusing the 60%+ of the Scottish population who voted anti-SNP last night of all being sectarian bigots really needs to give their head a wobble. Have they never read Struth's backstory for a start?)

I expect May will find her authority seriously diminished once the new parliament starts.

Every bill will have to be discussed beforehand, at least with the DUP.
An outbreak of flu among Tory MPs could cause delays
A serious illness could cause panic, in case it results in a byelections.
Maybe a Tory or two will jump ship to better jobs outside parliament
Even small majorities are difficult - and she doesn't have one, just a dubious alliance

A jubilant opposition too, that will enjoy asking embarrassing questions, maybe about her ally's associations with terrorist murderers.

Cameron will be quietly pleased that her continued incompetence makes him look good.
And Osbourne is so blatant !

Well a lot of people who DO want to stay in the EU (all of Scotland) are at the mercy of May, Davis and Fox (yuk). Guy V was talking to those who didn't want to be in this shitstorm. We understand you didn't want this, we're going to try and come up with something. Damn site more than the UK government is doing for its British citizens in the EU.

Trump Supporters Have Discovered The DUP And It’s Just The Absolute Worst
Theresa May says she plans to work with the anti-gay and anti-abortion DUP, and America's far-right trolls are thrilled.
www.buzzfeed.com/jamesball/trump-supporters-have-discovered-the-dup-and-its-just-the?utm_term=.nd0PP378nm#.dnAjjDo3Ma

howabout Was that just a negative anti-SNP vote, or a positive vote for the other parties ?
I thought Corbyn's policies would be much liked in Scotland and Ruth is looking like the most popular and dynamic politician in the country.
Two great positives.

If Labour dumps policies and / or the next leader is another Miliband clone; if Ruth is parachuted into England... how safe are the new Labour and especially Tory votes ?
Also, the Leave part of the SNP may return, as may those who just want DevoMax and not another referendum

Just a thought - reading some Tory comments and they seem to be criticising May and the campaign.

After last night should they not be questioning policy? Wouldn't that be logical for any losing party?

I'm still putting money on Ruth Davidson being parachuted into a by-election in safe English Conservative seat or maybe not even a by election if the government fails to survive

She has form for this: she was jumped to the top of the Tory list in Glasgow in 2011 (only the 1st Conservative was likely to get in) after some bitter in-fighting which resulted in the No 1 on the Tory list being de-selected. Our local Tory councillor was quite bitter about it.

Lazybastet there's been a lot of Tory criticism about the manifesto, the lack of costings, the u-turning - that's all policy related. But fundamentally, there was hardly any policy to discuss! No detail on Brexit, for example, that's one of the problems and May refused to engage with either the electorate or the media.

Labour are going to produce an alternative Queen's speech. Hurray.

And the anger against May is starting. As per the referendum last year there are 5 stages of the grieving process and this one has just started...its going to get ugly

www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2017/06/result-objectively-hilarious-we-should-still-be-angry-tories-screwing

Given they won seats, Labour now regretting they didn't put more effort in Scotland and the confidence to go after other seats like Rudd's, according to The Guardian. The exit poll was such a shock...easy to be wise after the event. Some of the swings were huge and unexpected.

Bigchoc I think the Labour vote in Scotland is entirely dependent on them staying Left but not necessarily under Corbyn. Even Red Ed was viewed as a Red Tory by many. The SNP support base grew out of frustration that Holyrood under Labour acted as Blair's poodle.

The Conservative vote is much softer and much of it was tactical. Prior to 2015 the LibDems had 11 Scottish seats and lots of these would be in play against the new Conservatives. One of the reasons the Conservatives did so well against the SNP in the North and Borders is that the SNP was a protest vote against Labour / Glasgow dominance and the SNP are now seen as a worse evil than the Conservatives. That said a lot of the new Tory seats were natural Tory prior to Thatcher and RD has successfully dumped her legacy. 20% ish is the natural Scottish Tory base but higher than that in most places outside the Glasgow conurbation.

Labour may be bitterly regretting KD's advice there to vote Tory against the SNP - I wonder if that increased the number of Tory seats ?