Westministenders: Strong and Stable Theresa Date with Destiny

[RedToothBrush]

WELLLLL

Its just before 2.00am.

So far its the YouGov model all the way. Still a long way to go but, the Cons are not getting the top of their target list and Labour are doing very well in seats they just 'shouldn't be'.

Corbyn is now favourite to take the poison chalice of Brexit, but they may not be the largest party yet.

This is looking right now like 1974 not 1983.

May's potted regardless. I look forward to her resignation speech. Its still entirely possible that our next government is a Tory Minority under another leader.

The LDs are having a rough night so far. They are loosing deposits all over the place as they are squeezed out. But they still might hold the balance of power yet. Though they are pledged not to go into coalition.

Another election in the autumn? Brexit delayed and going soft and squishy?

And thanks too for spreading the word across the Atlantic bigly they need to know, we are kicking back and winning here, like they will. Telling US friends too. They are confused by the British parliamentary system but when it comes down to it, it's the same old shit with Trump and May and the DUP. (and CRC etc)
www.opendemocracy.net/uk/peter-geoghegan-adam-ramsay/mysterious-dup-brexit-donation-plot-thickens
Onwards and so forth.

HP becoming less elite - another positive reported on the BBC:

"For the first time, more than half of MPs elected to the House of Commons were educated in state comprehensive schools, according to a round-up of MPs educational backgrounds published by the Sutton Trust.
The new parliament will have 51% of MPs educated at comprehensives, compared with less than half in 2015, while the proportion of MPs who were privately educated falls to 29%.
Two-thirds of Labour MPs went to comprehensives, along with 38% of Tory MPs. Of the latest intake of 98 MPs - not including the undeclared Kensington constituency - 67% went to comprehensives, while 18% went to state grammar schools.
The shift comes as the Conservative party struggles with its manifesto commitment to open new grammar schools in England." Richard Adams reported on BBC

Anyone who works in the public sector will enjoy this advice for May from the police community forum after dealing with years of Tory cuts

Minority Governments and whether the Salisbury Convention applies.

Mark Elliott‏*@ProfMarkElliott*
Will Salisbury Convention (limiting House of Lords' influence) apply to new minority Govt's manifesto commitments? Some thoughts here.
A constitutional practice is a convention only if there is a good constitutional/normative reason for it. 2/x
So says the "Jennings test" — which was endorsed by the Upper Tribunal in Evans v Information Commissioner. 3/x
What, then, is the good constitutional reason for the Salisbury Convention? 4/x
The answer, surely, is that it institutionalises the democratic principle. 5/x
It does that by ensuring that manifesto commitments with majority support are immunised against the unelected House of Lords. 6/x
Majority support must mean majority support as refracted through our electoral system: i.e. majority of seats in Commons. 7/x
I say that because governments almost never have a majority in terms of the popular vote. 8/x
On that view, a government without a majority in the Commons cannot claim majority support for its manifesto commitments. 9/x
And if minority govt can't claim majority support for its manifesto commitments, the norm underlying Salisbury does not obviously bite. 10/x
It's therefore arguable that the Salisbury Convention does not protect the manifesto commitments of a minority Government. 11/x
This is all subject to point that conventions are not legal rules, so their meaning is ultimately curated by the political community. 12/x
An external observer (like me) can therefore offer an analysis, but it will be ultimately for political actors to decide this issue. 13/13

May has to get the Great Repeal Act through parliament as a minority government. That's insane enough without considering how she usually goes about forcing through Bills.

The Lords are going to be busy and can scupper pretty much anything they see fit from my understanding of this.

citreon yes and I think 45 openly LGBT MPs!

fleetstreetfox‏*@fleetstreetfox*

I'm going to throw this at the wall and see if it sticks. Anna Soubry for PM.

I could go with that. She'll never get it.

Donald Tusk @eucopresident
·
10h
We don't know when Brexit talks start. We know when they must end. Do your best to avoid a "no deal" as result of "no negotiations". #GE2017

The DUP are not a good fit to the Tory party of 2017 (they were barely tolerable to the Major govt of the 1990s)

They are extremely & absurdly socially conservative - probably just Philip Davies, Nadine Dorris & a few other Tory wing nuts would like those policies

• but not economically conservative:

. They want more public spending and an end to cuts
. They want a soft border with NI
. They want to stay in the EU customs union
==> only EEA / EFTA Brexit would give them that.

www.ft.com/content/e5dcebc0-4d14-11e7-919a-1e14ce4af89b
May clings to power as Tories threaten to split over Brexit
Prime minister decides not to reshuffle top team in sign of new weakness

Greg Clark, the pro-Remain business secretary, summoned leading business groups to co-ordinate a push for a softer Brexit, according to those at the meeting.

Meanwhile, Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Tory leader celebrating a 12-seat gain for the Conservatives north of the border, called on Mrs May to pursue “an open Brexit” that “puts our country’s economic growth first”.

Post Election QT with Alastair Campbell, Chris Grayling, Shami Chakrabarti, Isabel Oakenshott and Armando Iannucci on now.

I too wonder how the DUP will go down in civilised society. If the combination crosses the first hurdle, and survives as far as the end of the month, then we are launched into NI's marching season, always a spectacle. It will be interesting to see if the usual effigy burning, enormous bonfires, provocative and intimidating marching in close proximity to RC churches, schools, etc will be toned down this year on an effort to make DUP supporters appear reasonable.

Thanks to SF's increased vote, it can now claim a mandate for it's positions, and the DUP and Tories ignore SF and nationalist concerns over the GFA, ECHR and ECJ at their peril. For Ireland, the prospect of the DUP having a day in government I'm WM is as palatable as a bucket of cold sick, so I can see support for SF developing in Dublin.

I'd bloody love Soubry for pm

Cheers red , I'll have a look.

Blimey. Dimbleby is coming out strong tonight. Little sleep grumpiness or thankful for lack of 'fairness' rules I wonder.

Day in govt should be 'say' in govt. Sorry for typos, phone making up its own post...

Haha Oakenshot taking a pop shot at Soubry for being bitter for 'losing her seat'. She didn't.

It was very late/early...but did anyone else notice that he kept swearing?
😀
I heard a couple of bloody hells off camera and of course Laura dropped the c bomb 😂

The journalists are pissed off. Gloves off with May after the campaign and the way she treats journalists.

It will be interesting to see if the usual effigy burning, enormous bonfires, provocative and intimidating marching in close proximity to RC churches, schools, etc will be toned down this year on an effort to make DUP supporters appear reasonable.

You're assuming there the DUP give a shit about appearing reasonable. Clearly you're not used to NI politics, where being reasonable is seen as a sign of terminal weakness....

Until now the DUP has been invisible to the mainland UK electorate. We have to be honest dismissed NI as its too complicated or too distant. Now they will possibly be influencing or meddling with Mao land politics. If they do not tread very carefully they may feel the wrath of the disconcerted non Tory voters and the little c Tory voters. You know what happens to those who fly too close to the sun

I'd like TM to be interviewed again and asked what the naughtiest thing she's ever done is and say 'Wasting millions of pounds of taxpayers' money on a pointless election and fucking up the country'. It's a bit more interesting than running through wheat fields.

Not Mao...mainland. Faustian slip

Dimbleby reads comments May made about Labour and SNP and how people have concerns about this because the head of the SNP isn't elected to Westminster.

Grayling refuses to comment on May doing the same with Arlene Phillips!

Love em. We've bought our little humanists up well but generally they are also not racist or homophobic or sexist either. The Toryboy Lad culture has suffered a huge blow recently as feminism and equality generally has stopped not being cool and their generation has taken ownership...

Sarah Wollaston‏*@sarahwollaston*

1. The precipitous fall from predicted 'landslide' to minority Govt was wholly avoidable; the result of hubris & a failure to listen
2. That inevitably has consequences for our negotiating position given the need for Parliamentary agreement to the final deal on Brexit
3. There will now need to be greater debate & involvement of the Commons during the course of negotiations.
4. How far will all Parties be prepared to work constructively in the national interest? A key test for our elected representatives.
5. PM simply cannot carry on as if this is 'business as usual' with a small inner circle of mostly unelected & discredited special advisers
6. Public needs to see more evidence of Parties working constructively in national interest rather than divisive point scoring

Heidi Allen‏*@heidiallen75*

Hear hear Sarah

Echoes of Yvette Cooper.