Tick tock, tick tock goes the Brexit Clock.
Don’t panic, just don’t turn up to debates because you have talks starting on the 19th June and have to perfect the 100 page document relating to at least 750 international agreements that need renegotiating before then. Anyone who turns up for their job interview for that, is just wasting time.
If only someone hadn’t called a distracting election.
This election was dubbed to be about Brexit. Yet it is remarkable that we have barely had debate over it. No one wants to admit it really. We nearly got a consensus between Barry Gardiner, Nick Clegg and David Davis over it being a political not economic decision on Question Time on Thursday 1st June, but we are not quite there yet with the admission that the economy is toast. This means the addition money the Conservatives have promised for the NHS won’t be available but we can’t have this discussion. Its properly the fault of purdah. Instead the subject rapidly got skipped over. Instead Davis said that the target May had just set for immigration to be at tens of thousands by 2022 was unrealistic.
In post-election rumour has it that Davis is about to get a promotion to the FCO, whilst Johnson gets the boot. On the other hand Gove is also rumoured for NI and May loyal Gummer gets Brexit.
Meanwhile the 1922 Committee of Tory Backbenchers are said to be plotting the downfall of at least one of May’s guard dogs, Nick Timothy following the decision about the Dementia Tax and subsequent U-Turn. Farage also mentioned Timothy in his statement over the breaking news that the CPS are pressing charges on the Conservative Candidate for South Thanet (the former MP there), his agent and a Tory Party official over election expenses. It seems almost inconceivable that Timothy can survive a traditional Tory Knifing.
This is all as May’s leadership approval ratings are in freefall as the honeymoon is firmly ends, after the public finally got to see her create an army of strawmen as answers, in a barely concealed contempt for the public’s concerns. May’s reaction to a negative reaction? Go back into hiding from media accountability and get the Mail to do her dirty work.
Elsewhere the EU have lined up to criticise Trump over his hard ball attempt to renegotiate the Paris Climate Deal. May was noticeable by her absence as she’s trying the same trick over Brexit and is desperate to keep Trump onside. What is Trump offering us in return? Apart from a Brexit Opportunity to get stiffed.
As for the polls? Despite them, it’s difficult to see the Tories not making a net seat gain. For Labour to do well it relies on widespread tactical voting, young who haven’t previously voted turning out in levels not seen since the 1970s and this being spread across the country and not concentrated in University areas. This will be tough to achieve to simply stop a Tory Landslide, never mind a hung parliament. Labour winning a majority is the stuff of pure fantasy (needs Lab to be 12points ahead of Cons). That said, if the result isn’t much different to the 2015 result, it will beg major questions over May’s leadership and her ability to read the public mood. It will say something about her refusal to engage with ‘the saboteurs’.
Expect an increased Tory Majority but not of the epic scale of 470 they originally were aiming for.