Westministenders – 10 days to go

[RedToothBrush]

The Maynifesto is out (lets be honest here; other Manifestos are just exercises in dreaming). The rumours of what will happen post Election are in full swing.

The Conservatives are ‘relaunching’ their campaign after Theresa May’s single handed attempt at throwing the election, has needed an intervention.

Yet the reality is that May will win. And win comfortably, increasing her majority. Talk of a Corbyn surge is just that. Talk. He still is more than 5% behind and the excitement about how the gap has closed is getting carried away. Indeed it only helps the Conservatives to get their vote out. Corbyn also started from such a dreadful position, it just makes the effect look more dramatic than it really is and May was always going to struggle to get much more support after the local election peak.

The thing is none of the political parties are covering themselves in glory. No one is offering what people want. In terms of voters not being impressed by their leadership, I don’t think many are really happy and are just going for the best available option out of a particular bad crop. It does not bode well for the future regardless of who wins. We should be worried about the quality of debate and our representatives regardless of who we end up voting for.

Come election night there are going to be some particularly shocking results. The idea that there is a national trend is not right. This election is highly localised in nature. Which will result in these surprises to outsiders but perhaps not locals.

June 9th will make for a lot of soul searching I suspect. For all three parties. There will be leadership questions that remain unanswered and need to be resolved. There are still massive political divides in parties. Heads will roll and need to be replaced. Expectations and the reality have been out of line for all three in one way or another.

Yet all of this is a side show to an extent. Whilst we all scrabble around trying to work it out amongst ourselves, the rest of the world moves forward without us. And the clock ticks.

Merkel has set the tone for the next round of Brexit. It is regarded by the German political elite as ‘Trumpandbrexit’. We are part of the same phenomenon even though many see it through different eyes in this country. This lack of awareness of how we are perceived outside our own walls is something we will face head on at some point and it won’t be good.

Trump himself is up to his neck in scandal. And has risked our safety as a direct result. May might have held her hand but that relationship does not seem to be going well for us. We are between a rock and a hard place and are drifting out to see.

Global Britain has never seemed so lonely and isolated. The rosy future we were promised, becomes ever more a distant dream rather than a dawn of a new age.

Reality will get us in the end.

Ah, I will probably miss it then. I am on half term child duties, so no useful lunch break to spend on MN.

This is an interesting little article about some of the issues with the polls and why they are all over the place at the moment.

What’s really happening with Labour in the polls?
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/whats-really-happening-with-labour-in-the-polls

In other news, the nasty EU looks to kill off geo-blocking of digital content.

www.theregister.co.uk/2017/05/29/eu_axes_geo_blocking_upsets_studios_delights_consumers/

Will the UK thumb it's nose at this ? Of course Murdoch would desperately want the UK out of any such arrangement. Otherwise UK consumers might have to pay less Sky Tax than the rest of the EU, and that would never do.

Lurking on holiday

The EU seem to be ready for when the UK decide to come to the table for 'negotiations'. They have been preparing for the 11 months.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/30/painstaking-detail-brexit-process-revealed-eu-documents

This election is like a diversion. It is important to talk about the NHS, education, defence etc. . However, Brexit will really have an effect on everything. From many different perspectives. Yet it is talked about as if it will be a discrete event. And the other things are talked about as if they are in a bubble.

The UK has 100 pages, just ready to go:

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p054cvjy

Davis: We have 'over 100 pages' of Brexit detail
The secretary of state for exiting the European Union has said the Conservative Party has a detailed plan for Brexit.

David Davis said they had been very clear that they would seek "a free trade agreement with an associated customs agreement" from the European Union.

These EU positions papers cover:

• citizens rights - expats resident from date of Brexit should have the same rights as citizens of their country of residence, with protection by ECJ < May bitterly opposes date, rights, ECJ >
• financial settlement - this could be resolved with goodwill, but only if conditions for a transition period for trade can be agreed

ec.europa.eu/commission/publications/draft-eu-position-papers-article-50-negotiations_en

Nothing about the EU 3rd prerequisite: NI & border
I'm concerned after R North's reports that both the RoI and Barnier seem not to understand the possible Brexits & consequences.

I hope DD is allowing the 5-10 years to negotiate and approve that deal

Survation:
Survation "certain to vote"
18-24 81.7% (+14.1%)

Really?! Somehow I think that high

Election data @ Election_data
Turnout for 18-24s:
2015: 44%
2010: 52
2005: 38
2001: 40
1997: 54
1992: 67
1987: 67
1983: 64
1979: 63
1974: 63
1974: 70
1970: 65
1966: 61

Election data @ Election_data

Is that from canvassing 18-24 year olds, or actual analysis of real votes cast ?

I know the latter is possible, but surely requires a court order ?

If the former, then what's the margin of error ?

I'd be astonished - and delighted - if 80% of 18-24 yr olds were to vote
However, maybe Corbyn has inspired them to return to the levels of the 1970s

Zero hours, exploitative work practices and extortionate tuition costs have politicised the 18-24 demographic in a way no other political indoctrination programme could have.
Being young is to be politicised, as is being disabled, older or female.
I think there will be a very high 18-24 turnout.

I know quite a few of them. Friends' and family members' kids and my own, have had to study to a much higher level to get anywhere these days. Bringing up thoughtful kids, is not in the tories' interests. They know what's going on, they're living it.
maybe Corbyn has inspired them
I don't think they're naive about Corbyn anymore, but they have certainly been on a steep learning curve about what the tories and brexit are.

My thoughts on TrumpandBrexit:

These 2 events are because the US & UK have some things in common that E27 countries don't, hence why the alt-right revolution stalled there.

The US & UK have:

• Much higher levels of income & wealth inequality than iirc any other Western countries
• The economic policies of the "left" are (US) / were (UK) very similar to those of the right. So, those left behind and wanting a radical change had to go outside mainstream politics for this. Corbyn's unexpected success looks a gamechanger, so I hope his successor is a safe pair of hands presenting a clear left alternative to go give voters a choice at the next GE after 2017.
• English language - the alt right online storm troopers from the US & UK were hindered in trying to communicate
• The E27 were warned by TrumpandBrexit and the mainstream parties prepared better to combat this movement winning in their countries too

sorry don't know if this has been posted before but

The Naylor Review and The NHS

Basically, NHS assests (i.e. land) to be sold off and
if hospitals refuse to sell off their assets at cut price to private sector, then they will not be provided public money for basic hospital equipment.

The Naylor review is fully supported by the Tories

Survation poll has SNP share of the UK vote down at 2 rather than 4 / 5 previously. If accurate this is significant coupled with increase in Labour as starts to put a lot of SNP / Labour seats into play. In 2010 and prior SNP GE vote share was only 20%ish and so the 50%ish in 2015 is soft and could switch.

Also significant that this is post NSs' AN interview. SNP need a good Manifesto launch and I am not sure how they look more Left than JC. Also smart move by JC yesterday to equivocate a bit on Indyref2. In Tory areas this galvanises their vote and hurts the SNP, but in Labour areas it gives a wedge to discuss the Labour Federal solution which again hurts the SNP.

Young voter turnout higher in Scotland post Indyref and lowering voting age, but I don't think it will be this time as there is less of a buzz around voting SNP. The water is very muddy on other issues - Scotland already has devolved free tuition and free personal care for the elderly.

Any Westministenders put any questions to JC ?

Webchat 12:00 is on
https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/mumsnetlivee_events/2939320-Webchat-with-Jeremy-Corbyn-leader-of-the-Labour-Party-Tuesday-30-May-at-midday?msgid=69401879

Can't rely on UK polls to give results for the 3 smaller countries, because the sample size is too small.
We need specific Welsh / Scottish / Ni polls with sample size 1000+

Even when the sample is representative of the population, polling orgs say
Margin of Error (+/-)
MOE Sample Size
2% 2000
3% 1000
4% 500
5% 400
6% 300
7% 200
10% 100

The last Scottish poll I saw had the SNP around 47%, which was almost exactly the sum of Lab+Con.
(If FTPT didn't distort votes so badly, that would give them under 30 of the Scottish seats !)
Estimates vary within 40-50 SNO seats, BUT last I saw was that it would still be the Tories who would win seats from the SNP.
So SLab unionists voting Tory are likely to increase the Tory majority.

Oh I'm laughing. All you Tory and Brexit haters in your metropolitan enclaves.
Shitting it. Wishing you could vote Labour but get a nice champagne socialist like good old Tony instead of Comrade Corbyn.

Shift must have started.

Maybe you will all have to move abroad, like you threatened. Good market for renting your house out here though, turn it into a HMO. Oh! I forgot about the new tax regime. Best vote for Tim.

Brexiters still think 48% of the population see an elite

were

(Times paywall) Attacks on Corbyn do the Tories no favours

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/attacks-on-corbyn-do-the-tories-no-favours-rrhz6vpl8?CMP=TNLEmail1189188_1908108

"If the opposite of the audacity of hope is the cowardice of fear then that has become the Conservatives Party’s campaign of choice.

Whether they are blowing the dog whistle of immigration under Michael Howard or waving the bludgeon of the “tax bombshell” poster under John Major, the Tories cling to scare tactics like a safety blanket."

"Now the party — with Sir Lynton Crosby, the high priest of negativity, back in charge — is running an election campaign based on vicious personal attacks on Jeremy Corbyn.

It’s old politics and, as the Tories should have learnt from London and the EU referendum, it doesn’t work any more. "

"The over-reliance on the prime minister has exposed her as brittle and indecisive rather than strong and stable.

The about-turn on social care revealed wider flaws in the Tory leader and her team.

It also appears that the Conservatives’ brutal assaults on the Labour leader are backfiring.
Wavering former Labour supporters, who were flirting with voting Tory for the first time, are being pushed back into the Labour fold.

Voters — who actually rather like the populist policies in Mr Corbyn’s manifesto — feel insulted.
The Tories are starting to look like bullies.

By attempting to highlight Labour’s failings they are simply reinforcing their own flaws."

"Mrs May belittles herself and her office by stooping to this level of personal vitriol.

Curiously, the shriller she becomes, the more Mr Corbyn seems to have relaxed, shrugging off criticisms with a nothing-to-lose nonchalance.

As the veteran political historian Lord Hennessy of Nympsfield observes, politics is divided into herbivores and carnivores.

For all his left-wing views, the jam-making, courgette-growing, bearded Labour leader looks like a herbivore

while the Tory one increasingly appears red in tooth and claw, not only carnivorous but cannibalistic in her mauling of her rival.

There is, as she herself might say, something distinctly “nasty” about the Conservative strategy."

"The Tories had assumed that a landslide victory would be theirs because the Labour leader is hopeless and his party is not trusted on the economy or security, all of which are true.

But there are two other political fundamentals at work
— the first is that the voters do not trust politicians,

and the second is that
the Conservatives have still not lost their “nasty party” reputation."