Referendum in final deal

[Niamer]

In most life- changing decisions, there is a get-out clause. If you buy a house with rising damp, you can pull out before completion, you can break off an engagement if your Mr. Right turns out to be Mr. Notquite. I assume most reasonable people would like the opportunity to have a look at the brexit deal we get from the EU and decide if that's really the best way forward. If you agree, please sign and share. petition.parliament.uk/petitions/193282

What facts am I using?

Data from the NHS, data from the DWP, LSE, Oxford University Migration Observatory, Bank of England etc.

"Because UK nationals are using their own eyes."

And individual views are tainted by preconceived perceptions which is why you look at overall information.

As also said Anon, most EU nationals don't live in areas with significant EU migrant populations.

So how can they be seeing all these negative effects?

most EU nationals don't live in areas with significant EU migrant populations. So how can they be seeing all these negative effects?

Because most UK nationals (like me) have friends and family spread across the whole of the UK and they tell us what is happening in their part of the country.

The liberal elite seem to look at data and conclude we need more of the EU to move here because it advantages the rich, but the 'JAMS' or whatever want it to stop because we want UK nationals prioritised.

Who cares about the UK nationals anymore because they are not statistically significant.

Again, but the reason you use data, rather than anecdote is because people's prejudices taint how they percieve things.

Lets look at the real facts.

In London 36.8% of the population are foreign born.

In the South East its 12.8%

In every other region of the UK its under 10% of the population are foreign born. The East of England (8.6%), West Midlands (7.9) and North West (7.9) all of the other regions of the UK have 5 % or under of the population that is foreign born.

This means that in most places in the country immigration in total accounts for less than 95% of the population.

Now as about half of all immigration is EU immigration this means that the EU based population make up an extremely small percentage of the populace in any region in the UK, and are usually concentrated in the larger cities.

"Who cares about the UK nationals anymore because they are not statistically significant"

Never said that.

The point is that people are blaming the EU and FOM for things that it isn't responsible for, what people "see" and reality are often 2 different things.

Again, but the reason you use data, rather than anecdote is because people's prejudices taint how they percieve things

This is what you keep ignoring... peoples feelings matter, they aren't just prejudices, they are experiences. You keep dismissing peoples feelings as irrelevant because they are not statistically significant. But they are significant, they do matter.

Danny None of your FACTS are facts. All the research says that it is basically impossible to tell the impact of immigration on jobs because immigrants often move to areas where jobs are available.
Maybe people with low immigration have visited places with high immigration and decided they do not want that for their town, so are voting before it becomes an issue.
I will assume you are white, university educated and in a family earning above the median wage. Don't dismiss others, beacuse your life chances placed you where you are.

." peoples feelings matter, they aren't just prejudices, they are experiences. You keep dismissing peoples feelings as irrelevant because they are not statistically significant. But they are significant, they do matter."

Feelings and experiences do matter, but they are not the be all and end all, because prejudice gets in the way. When the kid down the road gets into the primary school that was your first choice and yours doesn't, its parents are EU citizens, so you blame immigration, but that's not what the problem is. When the person infront of you in the queue in A and E has a Polish accent, you blame immigration, again not what the problem is.

"Maybe people with low immigration have visited places with high immigration and decided they do not want that for their town, so are voting before it becomes an issue."

And based their opinion on what? The fact that they don't like foreign people? That's a pretty hard one to justify.

Life chances? I've seen you on other threads making statements about people who are on benefits, but now life chances matter?

I call bullshit.

Just admit it, its fine, the reason why people in the UK think FOM is has been bad is either because they are prejudiced or because they have been influenced by what the media have said about EU immigration, not because of any widely held negative experiences to do with EU immigration. In those leave strongholds North East and Wales, where the total foreign born accounts for 2% of the entire population its impossible for all of those voting leave to have been negatively impacted, virtually at all.

The reason you don't like it is that this is a significant part of the leave vote. They didn't vote out based on facts, they didn't vote out based on their own experiences.

They did so because of their preconceived prejudices and years of misleading media.

This is what you keep ignoring... peoples feelings matter, they aren't just prejudices, they are experiences. You keep dismissing peoples feelings as irrelevant because they are not statistically significant. But they are significant, they do matter.
People are supposed to use their brains to try and go beyond their first impressions. I live in a wealthy-ish area and from my point of view everything is great, so if I have bothered to put that aside and look at data to form a nuanced opinion, I'd like to know why Leavers can't do it.

It's relevant because it is happening in Brexit Britain. Disabled woman detained to be deported. anon

visited places with high immigration and decided they do not want that for their town

Yes, they must have visited places overflowing with EU migrants, and only EU migrants, and were appalled to see this evidence that the EU is a racist cabal, thus they pre-emptively voted to welcome immigration from all over the world to their town.

So your answer to my question about housing is "They don't take up much space" (with a nice appeal to a stereotype of young EU nationals in shared housing) and "There are other causes for the housing shortage too" (gosh, can social problems have more than one cause? No, really? And that means we can discount each individual cause? Oh, ok, makes sense)

which we can translate as

"Don't say there is an effect on housing because there isn't"

You keep banging on about FACTS but you are quite happy to be selective with them when you think it suits your argument.

And individual views are tainted by preconceived perceptions which is why you look at overall information

They are wrong 'uns. They shouldn't have had a vote. We should have just Asked Danny.

Danny sounds a lot like a poster ( no longer with us ) who used to go on & on & on & on about facts. it's interesting that a lot of remainers posting styles are very similar. Hmm.

This is what you keep ignoring... peoples feelings matter, they aren't just prejudices, they are experiences. You keep dismissing peoples feelings as irrelevant because they are not statistically significant. But they are significant, they do matter

Actually I don't think Danny has shown anything to be statistically insignificant. Just say saying an effect is "small" 1) doesn't make it small and b) doesn't answer whether the size is enough to be important.

Is under 10% small, under 5%?

Take Danny's post at 00.27. All Danny is saying is "Here are the numbers, and I say they are they are too small to be important". Other views are available.

This 'will of the people' that must be enacted, is a strange beast, for want of a better word. The people of the West Midlands voted by something like 2:1, not to have an elected Mayor. So on 4th May they are going to the polls to elect a Mayor.

Erdogan got re-elected in Turkey by approx. 52% to 48% - the result is described as close. We had a Referendum, the result is described as 'overwhelming' by David Davis, and others, and it absolutely must be followed.

Re these arguments about immigration - there are a lot of small towns and villages, a number of which I have lived in myself, where people do not like any 'comers'/'incomers'/'offcomers', and you are treated as an outsider until you have lived there at least 30 years.

As for housing - an issue which doesn't really seem to have featured is that in a lot of areas, people buying second homes and pricing out the locals is a big issue. Cornwall for one has been badly affected by this, and Cornwall voted Leave. I don't think Cornwall has much immigration from outside the UK. I suspect Cornwall's vote was of the two fingers to Westminster variety.

And individual views are tainted by preconceived perceptions which is why you look at overall information

I can't get past this, actually.

War is Peace
Freedom is Slavery
Ignorance is Strength

Roll on the dictatorship, eh Danny?

One of the reasons I love this country is that each adult individual gets an equal vote. Individual views in this country, are valued and protected and given an equal say in our democracy to Danny's views.

Let's keep it that way, even in the face of a small rump of the remainers who would prefer the plebs to keep out of important decisions and let the People who think they have the with Facts run the show.

Leavers.
Stop engaging with these people.
Leave won.
We've triggered A50 & are on our way to leaving the EU.
Fanatical remainers will continue to try and sabotage the will of the people & democracy, but they'll get nowhere.
Leave them to argue amongst themselves.

Surfer You are right

It was Cameron who held the referendum, not Farage. In fact Farage was (much to his chagrin) excluded from the official leave campaign. All the major players accepted that the referendum result would be binding.

The idea of a referendum on the final deal is disingenuous. What is the alternative? Have The EU offered us the status quo ante if we don't like the deal?

Of course Europe will continue to evolve and fracture. There will be new groupings and trade alliances and we may well want to join them. This would be a good point for another referendum.

Do remainers really think the eu will last forever in its current form? History is not on that side of the argument and every attempt to show that we have evolved 'post history' has been shown to be a chimera.

This is what a nation united behind Brexit looks like: more divided by ever, driven on one side by "feelings" about nationality and foreigners, and on the other by total incomprehension of how feelings with no basis in fact can become the bedrock of government policy.

Misti,

It is easy to sneerily dismiss 'feelings', but if you use the word 'values' it becomes less easy to dismiss. In fact British Values are on the national curriculum. What are EU values? I hope they don't include the antisemitism which is still too close to the surface in a lot of the EU.

This is what you keep ignoring... peoples feelings matter, they aren't just prejudices, they are experiences. You keep dismissing peoples feelings as irrelevant because they are not statistically significant. But they are significant, they do matter.

They can't matter when it comes to policy making otherwise you get mob rule. Look at the death penalty... although thinking about it, as the fundamental right to life is espoused in the European convention of human rights, perhaps that holds little ground for leavers.

I cannot get past feeling negatively about EU expats. In ALL the housing crisis threads, people bang on about South Easteners should be moving up North where houses are cheaper... and being well qualified Londoners surely they would then take be able to take the jobs, and therefore the houses away, from the locals. How local is local enough to care about?

It's like people need a common enemy to thrive, logic aside. Who will you turn on, post Brexit, when it turns out the houses are still being bought by the wealthy/BTL/2nd homes?

we dont like unlimited foreigners having a right to move to our country, take a job, a school place, a hospital place.

Larry, is it a "British value" not to like foreigners taking jobs and consuming public services to which they are net contributors (both in terms of taxes paid and work done directly for employers such as the NHS and social care providers)?

I am British and don't recognise that as a "value". It's a feeling all right, as are all prejudices.

I do understand that feelings are strong. This is a poor basis for government policy though. And no government can continue indefinitely to the ignore the feelings of the roughly half of the population that sit on the other side of the divide. Encouraging such polarisation is damaging to national life.

In fact British Values are on the national curriculum. What are EU values?

According to Ofsted, 'fundamental British values' are:
democracy
the rule of law
individual liberty
mutual respect for and tolerance of those with different faiths and beliefs and for those without faith.

You're hopefully not suggesting that these are uniquely British characteristics, and further that these are absent in our European neighbours? Also they seem to have missed out the one that says "keep foreigners from moving into your neighbourhood/town/country because it feels bad, whatever the economic cost".