Westminstenders: The wheels on bus start to fall off, start to fall off…

[RedToothBrush]

The wheels on bus start to fall off, start to fall off…

Since Article 50 has been triggered – 8 days ago:

1. A week after a terror attack in London, the government threatened to stop co-operation over security issues with the EU. This was quickly retracted as ‘not being a threat’. Except it was.

2. The ‘Great’ Repeal Act White Paper was published. Its vague, lacks detail, does not have a draft bill and there is no plan for a public consultation over it. It proposes sweeping powers for the government without parliamentary scrutiny using Henry VIII powers.

3. HMRC have said the new computer system planned for launch in 2019, won’t be able to cope with the additional work which leaving the Customs Union would produce. It would be five times the work load which sounds like a lot more red tape.

4. Spain have said they would not oppose an Independent Scotland being in the EU.

5. May’s article 50 letter did not mention Gibraltar and after the publication of the EU draft document on how the Brexit process would be handled, this looks like a massive error and oversight. One of the clauses was that any future arrangements with regard to Gibraltar had to be settled with Spain bi-laterally rather than by the EU and the UK’s agreement with the EU would not apply to Gibraltar, unless Spain agreed. This has been taken as an affront to Gibraltar’s sovereignty, although the document says nothing about sovereignty. Michael Howard, however, decided this was sufficient grounds to threaten our ally Spain with war.

May has not condemned his comments, and laughed it off. Though she was happy to get worked up about the word ‘Easter’ a couple of days later.

Of course, this situation was entirely predictable and was predicted yet this situation seems to have taken the government by surprise. Our reaction, in the context of everything else, has made the UK look like a basket case.

6. The government’s plan to run talks on the UK’s settlement on leaving the EU in parallel with talks on the UK’s future relationship with the EU has been rejected by the EU. Instead we must do things in stages, with advancement to the next stage only possible after completing the last: Stage 1 – Exit, Stage 2 – Preliminary agreement on future relation, Stage 3 – Exit/Transition Deal, Stage 4 – As third country status enter a new deal.

The effect of this also means that deals we currently have with counties like South Korea through the EU need to be revisited. There is no guarantee these countries will want to continue trading with us on the same terms, if they do not want to.

7. The EU has set out its own red lines. Our deal 'must encompass safeguards against...fiscal, social & environmental dumping'. Our transition deal must not last longer than three years and individual sectors, like banking, should not get special treatment.

Donald Tusk has said we don’t need a punishment deal as we are doing a good job of shooting ourselves in the foot, whilst Guy Verhofstadt said Brexit is Brexit is a 'catfight in Conservative party that got out of hand” and hoped future generations would reverse it.

8. May has admitted that we might well have no deal in place by the time we leave the EU. Until now we have been told we would have a deal in two years. She has also admitted an extension of free movement of people beyond Brexit.

9. The Brexit Select Committee published their report which warned about the dangers of exit without any deal, as well as talking about problems relating to the ‘Great’ Repeal Act, Gibraltar and NI. This is sensible and you’d think uncontroversial, but the Brexiteers threw the toys out of their pram saying it was too pessimistic. The government’s job is, of course, to plan for problems no matter how unlikely – such as disasters – and to hope that never happens. It seems that these Brexiteers don’t want to act responsibility or do their job.

10. Questions at the WTO have been asked about how Brexit will affect them. Interest in the subject came initially from Indonesia about Tariff Rate Quotas, but other parties who were watching closely were Argentina, China, Russia and the United States.

11. Phillip Hammond has openly said that there are a number of Tory MPs who want us to not make any agreement with the EU and to crash out in a chaotic exit.

12. Polling has suggested that people want Brexit to be quick and cheap. Not only that, but the word ‘Brexit’ has started to poll badly. Instead the Brexit department are advising officials to use the phrase “new partnership with Europe”. Lynton Crosby, the mastermind behind 2015’s Conservative victory has also warned that the Tories would probably lose 30 seats they gained from the LDs at an early election.

Of course, even a 2020 election might prove challenging with a transition deal still likely to be unresolved as Brexit drags on. Government strategy is, apparently, to hope that Remainer's anger will have dissolved by 2020.

Eight days in, and the Brexit Bus looks like it strayed into 1980's Toxeth and got torched, its wheels nicked, and graffitied with obscenities over its £350million pledge.

that he is hoping that the media will portray this as a spiteful move on the part of the EU. Because the fact that we are leaving the EU and want to stop giving it any money still entitles us to have the EU make a major contribution to our local economy rather than that of an EU country. Naturally.

I haven't clicked on their link, and won't on principle, but the Express is already grumbling. I can't think why. If they don't like the EU then surely they don't think their regulatory bodies are necessary. The cost of us losing them should be a small price to pay, surely?

I reckon the people who are complaining, and hoping it won't happen are either nationals of another EU country living here or people who have a relative who is from EU.

I find this post either:
a normalised racism
or
b racism

In my ethical venn diagram

And I am nervous to call out racism now, so I guess now's the time to do it while I can. Here goes.

Its also worth pointing out that the EU workers on the lowest rung, don't stay there for long if they do stay for more than a year or two, and of course hospitality, farm work etc are predominantly done by young people is going to be low paid, one of the reasons many of these young people are here is to work, but also see the world a bit.

Yes. EU immigrants from the EU8/EU2 will typically be younger than the general population, and (if they stay) have more career progression opportunities because they are on average much more over-qualified for their jobs than UK workers.

This doesn't seem to be behind a paywall

www.ft.com/content/72ead180-229a-11e7-8691-d5f7e0cd0a16

If it does disappear it basically details how other countries are fighting to get hold of EU agencies because of the huge benefits. The benefits that we have decided to give up.

There is a slight change in the wind around pro-Brexit social media. There is much less attempt to convince us that it will bring any benefits and more portraying it as something that has to be done, rather like a root canal. The obvious point that a root canal actually HAS to be done and this is something voluntary escapes them. Maybe it'll be an Emperor's New Clothes and suddenly people realise "Hey, we DON'T have to do this."

There is a slight change in the wind around pro-Brexit social media
And it has to be noted that alleged trolls in another place are becoming pretty psychotic even by recent standards, alway a sign of something hitting a fan.

HPFA Brexit as something that has to be done sounds like larrygrylls' "leap of faith".

Where you end up splattered on the hard ground below.

The obvious point that a root canal actually HAS to be done and this is something voluntary escapes them.

The alternative to root canal treatment is that you just have the tooth taken out, which is cheaper but it leaves a gap. This is what the hard line Brexiters want the the equivalent of. They, of course will be able to pay for the expensive reconstructive work.

Have been fortunate so far to avoid a root canal! Of course I can't claim any scientific evidence here. Nevertheless I sense a slight change - I'm trying to maintain my faith that in the end reality will defeat all attempts to subvert it. Few Brexiteers have attempted to defend Steve Hilton after the demolition job in the Guardian - there is a point when fakery becomes too big to be obscured.

I'd be surprised if the average salary - maybe income (WTC ?) - is lower in Germany than in the UK.
'd assumed that the high number of ZHC workers - and E27 barristas ! - would drag down the UK average.

Also, scientists and other professionals normally come to Germany for higher pay in comparable jobs, not just the much larger number of jobs available in most science & engineering sectors.

There seem to be different calculation method, because the OECD has the average German salary being higher:
https://data.oecd.org/earnwage/average-wages.htm

Germany also has a higher number of its workforce that are EU migrants.

I reckon the people who are complaining, and hoping it won't happen are either nationals of another EU country living here or people who have a relative who is from EU.

This is a familiar sentiment I've seen expressed before .

Cost / standard of living also needs to be considerd, not just income.
It is why many pensioners have move to the continent, not just the sunshine:

. Housing in particular isn't the same horrendous problem as in the UK
. My Council tax in the Uk was £260 per month, whereas my Grundsteuer for a similar property is €130 per YEAR - more services are paid via income tax, which is fairer, imo and much easier for pensioners, whose income has fallen.

Work/ life balance too:
. A German or French worker has to do fewer hours for their pay; presenteeism is not something I've seen, having had several different jobs here over the years. I don't know about France.

. Much higher job security too - which of course is partly why the UK has more jobs, as employers can much more easily make redundancies on cost grounds.

The probationary period, during which people can be let go on performance grounds, is 6 months, not the 2 years in the UK.
After that, it is damn near impossible unless the worker commits a crime, or the firm closes down completely.

It is also illegal to make a worker redundant if they are aged 55+
That's a great help for older workers and people here often still spend their 40-45 years working in the same place.
I've attended several celebrations for 40-year work anniversaries.
It's regarded as a praiseworthy achievement, whereas a UK or US firm would probably be horrified that they can't get rid of "dead wood"

I assume that copper doesnt mean everyone who voted remain

Cos thats quite a few people

Bigchoc the figures also surprised me. It is net income per head rather than salary. I thought it was interesting as it goes some way to factoring in the distortions caused by different tax rates and things like tax credits.

I still wonder why anyone comes to the UK rather than Germany given that I fully accept what you are saying about preferable working conditions in Germany. After lots of digging all I could find was an article projecting the effects of an inexorable decline and ageing of the German population even after accounting for immigration.

qz.com/394456/the-numbers-behind-germanys-demographic-nightmare/

Hard to make income comparisons unless you know what's being measured and what exchange rate is being used.

If the chosen average is a mean (eg average income per capita) this will be less representative in the UK economy, where income inequality is larger, than in Germany. The mean will be extremely distorted by a small number of individuals with extremely high incomes. That's why you would usually use the median for average salary numbers.

Never take anything from a graph unless it's clearly labelled and annotated and if possible after checking the underlying data.

I still wonder why anyone comes to the UK rather than Germany

Language, culture and availability of jobs. A quick Google says that more EU migrants go to Germany than the UK though, so it's not as if migrants choose the UK ahead of Germany. Different people make different choices; you might just as well ask why my German horse-farming friend and my Geman plumber are in France, or why my son's Romanian-origin French teacher came here rather than Germany or Italy (whose languages she also speaks).

And yes, re BCF's post, cost of living makes a huge difference (I've just bought a 4 bed house for less than 1x our joint income).

That's why you often see income comparisons in terms of how long it takes to earn a Big Mac ;)

howabout Aha, "net" presumably means after tax - noone would come to Germany, France or Sweden etc if they want lower tax !

Personally, I happily pay more for good public services, including cheap & reliable public transport - I am visually handicapped and can no longer drive.
Also, to pay for a more comprehensive welfare state. It's fair that the better off pay more to help the less well off, imo.

I know many German doctors and HCPs went to the UK, because more doctors are produced here than there are jobs for - the opposite to the UK, hence mutually beneficial immigration.
Some UK unis are in the world top 20 for research, so there is prestige to be gained to have a few years there on your CV. Some of the best & brightest from Germany went, so again of mutual benefit.

However, German scientists at least - probably others from the wealthier E27 - are leaving the UK.
This is because of the lower pound and the more hostile environment to foreigners causing concern, especially about future NHs access and Home Office rules wrt DC and SAHP.

Agreed Misti on interpreting graphs etc. That brings us back to my original point that the "productivity gap" may not be quite as it appears.

On German EU migration I could only find a gross number but given the net figure for all migration for Germany 2014-2015 was about 600k and the majority of the gross migration for last year at least was non-EU it looks like the net EU figure is low. Also worth noting German population is about 20% higher than UK to start with so would expect proportionately higher figures.

The German statistics bureau link in the article I posted quaintly defines the population as Germans and foreigners. I would tend to find that marginally more offensive than the ONS but that may well be just because the SNP have got me brainwashed with all their "Civic Nationalism".

"Foreigners" is just the translation of the word "Aus­länder" used by the statistics office. Those with a better grasp of the nuances of language and society in Germany will be able to say whether "Aus­länder" is merely a neutral description of "people from outside the country" or whether it has negative connotations.

The productivity gap is genuine and it has been documented for over a century that Britain has been falling behind in particular Germany and the US, but generally behind nearly all industrialised countries that aren't at war or occupied.

"Foreigner" and "Auslander" are merely words, descriptions, , really only insulting in the context or intention.

Asking if someone comes from "abroad" is offensive if there is a subtext like "and when are you going back"
Or if the person being questioned has experience of hostility, or reason to feel insecure.

It can be tiresome if that is always the first question a native Brit asks anyone with an accent, or darker skin.
Especially if the subject is 2nd or 3rd generation Brit

Translations can often fail in nuance.
What is produced by Google translate, or even what someone learned at school, or by immersion, can sometimes be hilarious, or rude.

e.g. Many Germans say "failure" for "error" because the German word for error is "Fehler" but telling someone they are "in failure" can sound unintentionally harsh.

or "bekommen" meaning "receive"
"when do I become a cup of coffee ?" Hopefully never !

This is one reason why international orgs like the UN or EU employ so many translators.
And why leading fugures from the EU or UN are sometimes quoted by UK tabloids as being insulting / agressive when it is their command of English nuance that is lacking, not their manners.

I don't think foreigner has a negative connotation any more than I thought my use of ONS terminology earlier did. I have just spent a fruitless 5 minutes trying to reconcile it to any semblance of an ONS equivalent of EU / non EU Nationals.

Commenting on what part of Glasgow a person hails from let alone whether they might ever have been abroad is usually more than enough to cause offence here. Nobody I know does it in the way you suggest. I accept that the South of England, including London, is different in this respect. As a Scot with an accent I have often been on the receiving end of it. In the US it was different again. People always asked so that they could claim kinship, however remote.

My worst lost in translation social faux pas was telling an Algerian friend of mine he had a wicked grin. I meant mischievous and he reacted as if I had just accused him of being evil. Thankfully we were on close enough terms that the misunderstanding was swiftly resolved.