Westministenders: Brexit Britain = Gridlock Britain ?

[BigChocFrenzy]

We keep getting told the Uk can get a deal like Canada, Turkey or other non-EU countries have, without FOM.
Those deals do not provide the same privileges as EU members:
They have quotas, restrictions and must obey EU regulations

e.g. After CETA, Ron Davidson, head of international trade for the Canadian Meat Council stated:
"We do not have what we would call commercially viable access to the European market".

The deal with Turkey abolished tariffs, but did not give free acess. This is what that means:

www.ft.com/content/b4458652-f42d-11e6-8758-6876151821a6

"On a recent Saturday at the Kapikule border crossing, about 30 minutes drive from the Turkish city of Edirne, a line of trucks 4km long stretched along the highway, inching along glacially towards the Bulgarian checkpoints.
"Today is a good day", said Ibrahim Kurtukcu, a 42-year trucker who had been waiting 14 hours.
"Last week the line was 7km long".
The record is 17km. It can take up to 30 hours to get through to the other side."

Of course, UK ports (and French ports) do not have the capacity, facilities, storage space or trained staff to handle customs processing of the vast amount of British exports & imports.

Building this additional capacity - where ? - would take several years and there are no signs that even the planning stage has started.

www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/paris-gourtsoyannis-sturgeon-still-relying-on-brexit-talks-1-4391407

I'm genuinely baffled by May's attitude. She has refused so many chances to get this right.

If Scotland didn't want another independence referendum, why on earth would they keep voting Scottish nationalists in everywhere they can ?

As Bored said a few posts back - the SNP give Scotland a very loud voice in WM.

Labour took Scotland for granted, Tories were non existent, the Lib Dems got into bed with the Tories.

SNP are Scotland in WM.

Remember this when people claim its the EU who won't negotiate or give us a good deal. This is what we sent in there.

But it's already being spun as "nasty EU won't give us what we want."

True elements how dare the EU act in a compromising way when we want war. Bloody peace loving forriners

Sadiq Khan is speaking to the select committee now, I don't have time to stick with it but just in the few minutes I watched he highlighted that 20% of all employment in the UK is by companies with their HQs in London (not many people realise this includes the financial sector, not just in high street operations but the back office processing of global trading operations that will move in the event of a hard Brexit, and which provide significant employment in places like Colchester, Leeds, Edinburgh and Newcastle). London provides more employment than Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland put together . You do not make the country more equal by making London poorer, you make the whole UK poorer.

Immigration is crucial to the London economy. May's target would not provide enough of a workforce for the construction sector alone where a high proportion of the British born workers will retire in five years. Even if you put all the necessary training in place for young people it will not make up for anything like that wastage quickly enough.

The Tory response was for some puffed up lump of a man to question if the experts quoted in Khan's report of the impact of Brexit on London voted Remain, and were therefore blind to the benefits of leaving! As Mayor Khan should be talking up the opportunities. A full house of Tory Bingo, don't listen to experts, don't give those who voted remain a voice or even a job , all we need is to be optimistic and not talk the country down.

(Khan responded that 96% of people working in our creative industries voted Remain so it would be hard to find anyone who knew what they were talking about it who didn't. That you do need to talk to people who know what they are talking about to understand the risks, and you do need to understand the risks as well as opportunities.

I mean I know the SNP keep blathering on about wanting independence but I never expected them to take a shot at it when given the opportunity

A bit of good news: that mad misogynist Polish MEP has been sanctioned by the European Parliament (not for the first time: he's been fined for racism in the past).

A reminder that this someone who has close links to UKIP and hence to the leave campaign: www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/08/nigel-farage-ukip-europe-janusz-korwin-mikke

The Tory response was for some puffed up lump of a man to question if the experts quoted in Khan's report of the impact of Brexit on London voted Remain, and were therefore blind to the benefits of leaving! As Mayor Khan should be talking up the opportunities. A full house of Tory Bingo, don't listen to experts, don't give those who voted remain a voice or even a job , all we need is to be optimistic and not talk the country down.

I want to say I'm surprised ron but nope, this is the level of discourse and the quality of people steering us through the stormy seas ahead. Still, it's all about the Positive Thinking and the Feelz now, right?

I now can't get the image of Khan mansplainging experts to a spitting image Roy spattersly

Khan responded that 96% of people working in our creative industries voted Remain so it would be hard to find anyone who knew what they were talking about it who didn't. That you do need to talk to people who know what they are talking about to understand the risks, and you do need to understand the risks as well as opportunities.

Khan's response OTOH was very good. I think he is turning into quite an impressive and effective politician.

Sorry MO4D, I thought you meant WM

SNP lost their majority in the last election, but still loads of them voted in (think it's 3 short). A lot of folk are getting pissed off with the SNP being so all consumed by independence and neglecting the other stuff that is far more pressing - I wonder if they'll do so well in the next Scottish parliament election tbh.

NS & NI might be the official excuse for TM to go for v soft Brexit tbh.

(I personally want to end up with full Brexit eventually, but am fully aware that to do it properly is a long process).

Re Khan. Yes he does look better and better every day. However the thing to note is that the Mayor of London role is very hard to fuck up and is a massive publicity generator especially if you're an opposition politician. This is how Johnson built himself up into lovable buffoon territory before coming crashing back down to earth.

red, just got where your last post was pointing!

The comments on the Jack of Kent blog are interesting. This one in particular

The-winner-takes-all Westminster system is mostly unused to multi-lateral processes which explains both its disdain for EU as well as its blindness to the Scottish/NI risk. In EU power is multifaceted & depends on facilitating “your favored plausible option” via “consensus building” rather than simply amassing power & grandstanding.

In other words May looks like she is playing a “Westminster strategy” that simply doesn’t apply to negotiations with both devolved nations and the EU – if she continues, UK is likely to come out worse with respect to both.

Khan's response OTOH was very good. I think he is turning into quite an impressive and effective politician.

Too late to tempt me into ever voting Labour, but if he were leader ....

Hypothetically:

If UK came out of EU with no deal, & if Scotland then voted for independence & were able to be an independent member of the EU.

Would that then mean that Scotland were not allowed to have a trade deal with rUK?

"Would that then mean that Scotland were not allowed to have a trade deal with rUK?"

It wouldn't matter (to Scotland). They would get a big chunk of the rUK industry and financial services, and could still trade with the rUK under WTO rules.

Isn't it a little late to start clarifying possible trade arrangements with rEU if we go under wto now?

Yesterday, I was mischievously wondering what Donald Trumps view on Scottish independence was... given his oft-hailed Scottish ancestry, and business ventures.

It would cheer me up no end to learn that he was supportive of Scottish independence especially if he gets what he wants for his golf course. And I make no apologies in post-fact 2017 to admit that the core of the feelgood would come from imagining Theresa May learning that her new bestie isn't ....

How fleet of foot is Sturgeon ? Has she already factored the Dumpster into Braveheart2 ??

I'm genuinely baffled by May's attitude. She has refused so many chances to get this right.

Mistigri read this fascinating take on Theresa May by David Runciman. Lots of clues in here.

www.lrb.co.uk/v39/n06/david-runciman/do-your-homework

Re Khan, there was a piece about Stephen Kinnock in last night's Evening Standard - a big fan of Khan. My fantasy Labour front bench has them both on it.