Westministenders: Brexit Britain = Gridlock Britain ?

[BigChocFrenzy]

We keep getting told the Uk can get a deal like Canada, Turkey or other non-EU countries have, without FOM.
Those deals do not provide the same privileges as EU members:
They have quotas, restrictions and must obey EU regulations

e.g. After CETA, Ron Davidson, head of international trade for the Canadian Meat Council stated:
"We do not have what we would call commercially viable access to the European market".

The deal with Turkey abolished tariffs, but did not give free acess. This is what that means:

www.ft.com/content/b4458652-f42d-11e6-8758-6876151821a6

"On a recent Saturday at the Kapikule border crossing, about 30 minutes drive from the Turkish city of Edirne, a line of trucks 4km long stretched along the highway, inching along glacially towards the Bulgarian checkpoints.
"Today is a good day", said Ibrahim Kurtukcu, a 42-year trucker who had been waiting 14 hours.
"Last week the line was 7km long".
The record is 17km. It can take up to 30 hours to get through to the other side."

Of course, UK ports (and French ports) do not have the capacity, facilities, storage space or trained staff to handle customs processing of the vast amount of British exports & imports.

Building this additional capacity - where ? - would take several years and there are no signs that even the planning stage has started.

surely if she walks away with no deal that will be the end of her political life

To lazily invoke Godwin's Law, if Hitler didn't know that invading Europe, turning against Russia, and implementing the final solution would be the end of his political actual life - then I think it's quite possible May doesn't realise.

I think she thinks the country will applaud her for not taking EU shit, and I think if she really grasped the consequences of hard Brexit she wouldn't be advocating it. Ivan Rogers was told by No 10 to 'stop being such a pessimist'. One can only infer that No 10 itself is optimistic... however macabre that may be.

Thanks bigchoc. It could be very miserable for kent indeed, especially if there needs to be some refugee provision.

I was self employed as a barrister and despite being constantly busy and in work, I had a 50% salary increase when I moved to being a solicitor... same type of work as well!

Sorry!

Perhaps this should be the new Tory party slogan?

*Ba/idders", I am so stealing that.

Mother...I've also been called bladders which amuses me due to the state of my pelvic floor 😖😂

😀

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/britain-decade-growth-lost-austerity-institute-fiscal-studies-a7621411.html

Sorry!
Hang on....

Seems appropriate...

There's an impact of Brexit doc on BBC 2 at 9 tonight (except for viewers in Scotland, who can find it on HD). It probably won't cover anything we already know, and it's fronted by Kuennsberg whom, alas, I don't rate as a journalist but it might be worth a watch nonetheless.

Tx for the nuThread btw, and remember - don't get sucked in!

We don't already know.

Laura Kuennsberg is good at putting words into people's mouths

For the last two days Reporting Scotland/the news has been running with "Nicola Sturgeon says the next independence referendum will be in Autumn 2018" But if you see the actual interview, Nicola talks about still reviewing all the options and it is Laura who says, "So you wouldn't rule out Autumn 2018?" to which the politician Nicola replies, "I'm not ruling anything out"

Hashi'There is no requirement for either the UK or EU to negotiate a trade deal - in fact it was otiginally thought trade had to be negotiated after A50.

2 years after A50 invocation, the Uk would automatically be outside the EU and would have to make its own arrangements to rejoin the WTO
i.e. the EU would treat the UK like any of the other approx 160 non-EU and non-EEA / EFTA countries .

What is required during the 2 years "notice period" is to negotiate to settle all the non-trade issues, most importantly:

• What happens to each others' expats
• Settling any costs for which the UK is liable: MEP & EU civil service pensions, any capital expenditure ot grants etc to which the UK had agreed jointly before A50

Due to the vagueness of the original A50 Lisbon clause, it is theoretically possible the UK can avoid any exit bill and even leave the E27 to pay Farage's pension
However that would so piss off the E27 that it would pretty much guarantee no trade deal in the distant future either, until the debt is settled

A messy Brexit walkout would make non-EU countries wary about signing future deals with the UK

Big Choc's current expectations of May's "Brexit Meanz Brexit"

I lowered my expectations until they hit the ground, then I dug a hole.

When I hit bedrock, I got a big drill and punched down as far as I could.

When the drill ran out I jumped up and down on my expectations to squish them some more.

Finally I took a big steaming dump on my expectations and filled in the hole.

She did at least take Trump on in a way that must have really put May in a bad mood, for that i can forgive a lot. Plus I gave up on the BBC coverage of Brexit long ago, pitiful hiding under a rock journalism in the hope that the Tories don't come for them. Even Evan Davies trying to take on Trumpites comes over as desperately out of his depth......

Thanks bigchoc. You've sort of confirmed what I thought and also where I was coming cross purposed. I thought walking away from a deal meant literally waking off from the exit table not just walking away afterwards without trying to get a deal. Important nuancing I guess