Westministenders: Tell Boris it should be more Stokenders and Copenders

[RedToothBrush]

FINALLY this is the thread of the Copeland and Stoke By-Elections.
In the next few days we will be subjected to a whole pile of analysis from the media most of which will completely miss the point, and will waffle on about Brexit as if it’s the only issue ever and this is what matters to everyone.

Its bollocks.

This is the ‘Westminster Bubble’ that doesn’t report what is on the ground. It includes the media and the politicians who ran into town for the election, never to set foot there ever again. In one case pulling faces at the local children. In another desperately trying to prove how local he is.
Is it any wonder some think that all politicians are all the same?

You can learn far more about what really matters by reading the Stoke Sentinel and The Whitehaven News than reading The Sun or The Mail, those great champions of Leave. (Fancy that local papers being more relevant to a community than a national ones).

The by-election in Stoke has been a particular display of pond life style campaigning. We’ve had Hillsborough, ‘dodgy addresses’, arrest of a candidate, text messages saying you’ll go to hell for voting ‘wrong’, letters that say that MPs voted differently to the way they did, an activist being hunted by the police for trying to enter someone’s house and then pissing on her property, crying candidates, faked photos on twitter, dodgy sexist tweets from candidates dragged up, photographs with known far right activists, egg throwing and vandalism.

The word that keep coming out? Not ‘Brexit’. But ‘Change’.

What have the main parties in either election really added in terms of positive change?

Tomorrow’s weather will not help matters. The chances are that it will keep turnout down, making those postal votes more important. It will drive out the angry to vote whilst the apathetic and hopelessly disillusioned will stay home. The result will not be decided by the 60%+ of the electorate who voted to leave the EU. It will be decided by a fraction of that.

Someone has to lose. There will be political blood shed. Friday will see the political blame and finger pointing I doubt anyone will get it.
The real story is about how few people will vote and how few people think their vote counts for anything.

Immigrants and ‘benefit scroungers’ are not to blame for this. Nor is it even the ‘cultural elite’. Politicians have a duty to the whole country, to do the best for them all. Not to merely do the ‘will of the people’. Popularism does not help people. It merely starts a runaway train of the tyranny of the majority. You don’t give children sweets because they demand them. You educate children, and nurture them. If they are unaware of real issues, you make sure they learn and you explain why you are making unpopular decisions honestly, rather than feeding them a crock of shit. Because that’s your job as a PM, as MP, as a MEP, as an elected mayor, as a county councillor, as a borough councillor, as a parish councillor. To step up.

We need politicians with the back bone to do the right thing for all, rather than just worrying about their electoral strategy and how to con people to vote for you this time. We need politicians to actually take the responsibility of office rather than see it as a career opportunity.

The issues that matter most to people ultimately are not about the EU. They are not about immigration. It’s too easy to blame on immigration rather than tackle the infrastructure problems of the country and admit where you have gone wrong in the past. It’s easier to drive an hysterical fear of terrorism and cultural values being in danger from an enemy far away rather than look at who is really responsible.

If people don’t think that others are unaware of the problem, and don’t care about them and how they are being thrown under the bus, they are wrong. Plenty of people on both sides of the EU referendum debate get it.

Plenty on both sides don’t and are indulging the fantasy land excuses for domestic political failure.

The question is how do you get that message out, in a way that makes a difference and does change things? How do you break the stereotypes of the stupid and the patronising? How do you get people like the Nathan from Stoke to be heard and to believe in politics. Not believe in Brexit. Believe that politics can help them.

And education is distinct from intelligence or even wisdom.

And intelligence is a human facet equally distributed across the world.

But critical intelligence is not facilitated by the cultural and political soma that some westerners have been seduced by over the last few decades.

Use it or lose it as they say.

RedToothBrush

Just because the majority of people in an area don't vote for something, doesn't mean minorities should be ignored.

If we did that, you would ignore the poor in 'rich areas' and the rich in 'poor areas' would be even more privileged. (Change rich/poor for any other minorities in areas that they live)

MPs are supposed to represent the interests and fight the causes of ALL their constituents regardless of whether they voted for them or not.

I'm afraid this is a pretty naive view of how democracy functions in practice as opposed to principle, especially in a winner-takes-all system like we have in the UK or US. When a party wins power and gets, say, 55% of the seats, they don't say "well, let's pass only 55% of our programme and 45% of what our defeated opponents wanted". If Labour had done that in 1945, you'd never have had an NHS at all. Elected parties push for 100% of their agenda, and since the elected governement in this case has full responsibility for carrying out Brexit, of course they're going to do it in a way that suits themselves and the majority of their supporters.

they're going to do it in a way that suits themselves and the majority of their supporters.

You don't know it suits the majority of their supporters because the question was simply in or out. As has been stated up thread Brexit is not a single issue. How do you know leaving the single market or the treatment of EU citizens in the UK is supported by the majority?

MPs are supposed to represent the interests and fight the causes of ALL their constituents regardless of whether they voted for them or not.

MPs are not delegates, otherwise we'd be living in authoritarian free child care states. ,

"And winner takes all",(or constitutional democracy) as you call it usually prevents right and left wing nutters holding the ruling party to ransom, unless you've already got one leading the opposition.

I certainly don't want the nutter party in power whichever colour, but looks like that's what we've got now.

Brexit is irrelevant to the issue that keeps worsening the lives of ordinary people:

the OBSCENE increase in inequality of wealth, income & opportunity over the last 40 years or so.

The UK has 120 billionaires with a combined wealth of £344billion.
The Uk has nearly 1 million "dollar-millionaires", excluding their homes. Only China, the USA and Japan have more - and they have much bigger populations.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/07/a-million-british-households-are-now-millionaires--even-excludin/

Inequality around the world is dreadful too:
The world's 8 richest individuals have as much wealth as the 3.6bn people in the poorest half of the world.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-38613488

In the US, just 4 families have trousered as much wealth as the entire bottom 40% of the population, 130 million people !

The Economic Policy Institute reports that since the 1970s:
. Real wages for most U.S. workers stagnated
. For the top 1 % increased 156 %
. For the top 0.1 % increased 362 %

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/max-galka/americas-4-richest-families-own-as-much-as-the-bottom-40bb_9259942.html

You don't know it suits the majority of their supporters because the question was simply in or out. As has been stated up thread Brexit is not a single issue. How do you know leaving the single market or the treatment of EU citizens in the UK is supported by the majority?

Let me rephrase: of course they're going to do it in a way that in their political judgement suits themselves and the majority of their supporters.

May is using her political judgement to follow a strategy that she believes will carry most of her traditional supporter plus quite a few new ones. Now, the current Tory lead with ICM (18%) is one of the biggest in the pollster's history:

The Conservatives have extended their lead over Labour to 18 points, according an ICM poll for the Guardian. It shows that the Tories are on 44% nationwide – up two points since a similar survey two weeks ago – while Labour have moved down one to 26%.

The Tories have enjoyed a larger lead in just three polls in this series, which dates back to 1983, said ICM. Two of these came shortly before the 1983 general election, when Michael Foot went down to a crushing defeat at the hands of Margaret Thatcher, and the other at a low-point in Gordon Brown’s premiership in 2008.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/20/jeremy-corbyn-urges-labour-mps-to-rally-behind-partys-campaign-efforts

By any objective measure, her approach has enough popular support to win a general election, which is the only yardstick of popularity British politicians have ever used.

The Conservative lead has nothing to do with May's popularity, and everything to do with the catastrophe that is Corbyn's leadership.

The referendum campaign was certainly conducted as if voters were children: vote my way and I'll give you sweets (bendy bananas, blue passports), and the remain campaign wasn't much better.

That political judgement does not tally with the arguments given for leaving the EU as most have been debunked. That political judgement does not include any coherent plan in how to leave the EU.

Yes people agree Brexit means Brexit but Brexit means Brexit means sod all.

Kaija

"The Conservative lead has nothing to do with May's popularity, and everything to do with the catastrophe that is Corbyn's leadership."

Now who doesn't like facts? Sure, Corbyn is a major contributor to their lead, but to say that the policy of the PM and her governing party has nothing to do with their historic poll leads is pure fantasy.

I remember many years ago listening to a politician can't for the life of me remember who on the Brian Hayes R2 lunchtime show (shows how long ago it was ), saying that democracy was "the rule of the majority with the consent of the minority". He also went on to talk about ensuring an informed electorate so that they understood the choices in front of them. It was a really interesting and thought provoking discussion. (Thinking back, this must have been some time between 94 and 98, as we were in our flat in Shawlands at the time)

I think by that definition, we are now losing the definition of a functioning democracy . From my perspective, it is because May and the her band of Brexiteers have SFA intention of getting the consent of the minority or addressing their legitimate concerns beyond havering about everlasting cake.

historic poll leads is pure fantasy
Look at who has paid for it re BCF post.

AC Grayling here on who benefits from Brexit.

http://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/brexitissabouttheerichreessmoggsoffbritainnottanyoneelsee14896702?utmmsource=Twitter&utmmedium=SociallIcon&utmcampaign=innarticlesociallicons

Couldn't keep up with last thead. Have a feeling this may get even busier by tomorrow.

“Democracy Dies In Darkness” is Washington Post's new slogan.
Could use it for May's manifesto.

woman12345

Look at who has paid for it re BCF post.

Oh, I see - the polls must be fake news, even when it's an ICM poll for the Guardian, the leftiest, most anti-Brexit paper in the UK.

I'll say it again - denying the political reality is pure fantasy.

It is pure fantasy to regard May's lead in the polls as independent of Corbyn's unprecedented unpopularity as an opposition leader.

Kaija

It is pure fantasy to regard May's lead in the polls as independent of Corbyn's unprecedented unpopularity as an opposition leader.

Is that what I said? No. What you said is "The Conservative lead has nothing to do with May's popularity, and everything to do with the catastrophe that is Corbyn's leadership."

That's a completely different statement from claiming that May's poll lead is independent of Corbyn's unpopularity. Of course Corbyn's unpopularity contributes to the lead, but not the full 18%!

Even I would probably say May was a better leader than Corbyn if asked, and I am certain that this government is pursuing the most destructive course of action seen in this country in my lifetime.

Want some polling that's more directly relevant? Here's www.politico.eu/article/support-for-theresa-mays-brexit-strategy-increasing-poll-article-50/

The number of British citizens who agree with Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit strategy has risen sharply in the past month, according to an opinion poll published Monday.

In the poll, in which just over 2,000 people were questioned online, 53 percent said they agreed with the government’s plans for Brexit, Reuters reported. The figure was 38 percent last month.

Another 47 percent said they believed May would get the right deal for the U.K., whereas 29 percent said she would fail. In January, respondents were evenly split, with 35 percent agreeing and 35 percent disagreeing that she would make a success of Brexit.

Kaija

Even I would probably say May was a better leader than Corbyn if asked, and I am certain that this government is pursuing the most destructive course of action seen in this country in my lifetime.

That's fine, but it still doesn't back up your point that record Tory poll leads are based on nothing other than the unpopularity of the opposition leader. Which would be a fantastical claim without any obvious historical precedent.

The Big ‘Brexit’ Winner - NYT

"“I suspect the government is racking up phenomenal costs,” he said. “I am sure that the people who voted to leave, who had genuine grievances about the lack of job opportunities, did not envisage that one of the side effects of Brexit would be many jobs for highly powered legal and consulting firms.”"

Didn't think, in other words.

Thee is no obvious historical precedent for this situation, comfort.

Swedish and otoh fewer jobs on the EU gravy train - always is heads I win, tails you lose for lawyers, consultants and politicians.