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Brexit

Westministenders: Tell Boris it should be more Stokenders and Copenders

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 22/02/2017 16:17

FINALLY this is the thread of the Copeland and Stoke By-Elections.
In the next few days we will be subjected to a whole pile of analysis from the media most of which will completely miss the point, and will waffle on about Brexit as if it’s the only issue ever and this is what matters to everyone.

Its bollocks.

This is the ‘Westminster Bubble’ that doesn’t report what is on the ground. It includes the media and the politicians who ran into town for the election, never to set foot there ever again. In one case pulling faces at the local children. In another desperately trying to prove how local he is.
Is it any wonder some think that all politicians are all the same?

You can learn far more about what really matters by reading the Stoke Sentinel and The Whitehaven News than reading The Sun or The Mail, those great champions of Leave. (Fancy that local papers being more relevant to a community than a national ones).

The by-election in Stoke has been a particular display of pond life style campaigning. We’ve had Hillsborough, ‘dodgy addresses’, arrest of a candidate, text messages saying you’ll go to hell for voting ‘wrong’, letters that say that MPs voted differently to the way they did, an activist being hunted by the police for trying to enter someone’s house and then pissing on her property, crying candidates, faked photos on twitter, dodgy sexist tweets from candidates dragged up, photographs with known far right activists, egg throwing and vandalism.

The word that keep coming out? Not ‘Brexit’. But ‘Change’.

What have the main parties in either election really added in terms of positive change?

Tomorrow’s weather will not help matters. The chances are that it will keep turnout down, making those postal votes more important. It will drive out the angry to vote whilst the apathetic and hopelessly disillusioned will stay home. The result will not be decided by the 60%+ of the electorate who voted to leave the EU. It will be decided by a fraction of that.

Someone has to lose. There will be political blood shed. Friday will see the political blame and finger pointing I doubt anyone will get it.
The real story is about how few people will vote and how few people think their vote counts for anything.

Immigrants and ‘benefit scroungers’ are not to blame for this. Nor is it even the ‘cultural elite’. Politicians have a duty to the whole country, to do the best for them all. Not to merely do the ‘will of the people’. Popularism does not help people. It merely starts a runaway train of the tyranny of the majority. You don’t give children sweets because they demand them. You educate children, and nurture them. If they are unaware of real issues, you make sure they learn and you explain why you are making unpopular decisions honestly, rather than feeding them a crock of shit. Because that’s your job as a PM, as MP, as a MEP, as an elected mayor, as a county councillor, as a borough councillor, as a parish councillor. To step up.

We need politicians with the back bone to do the right thing for all, rather than just worrying about their electoral strategy and how to con people to vote for you this time. We need politicians to actually take the responsibility of office rather than see it as a career opportunity.

The issues that matter most to people ultimately are not about the EU. They are not about immigration. It’s too easy to blame on immigration rather than tackle the infrastructure problems of the country and admit where you have gone wrong in the past. It’s easier to drive an hysterical fear of terrorism and cultural values being in danger from an enemy far away rather than look at who is really responsible.

If people don’t think that others are unaware of the problem, and don’t care about them and how they are being thrown under the bus, they are wrong. Plenty of people on both sides of the EU referendum debate get it.

Plenty on both sides don’t and are indulging the fantasy land excuses for domestic political failure.

The question is how do you get that message out, in a way that makes a difference and does change things? How do you break the stereotypes of the stupid and the patronising? How do you get people like the Nathan from Stoke to be heard and to believe in politics. Not believe in Brexit. Believe that politics can help them.

OP posts:
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RedAndYellowPeppers · 28/02/2017 11:24

Badder Flowers
I'm in the middle of finishing to put together all the docs I need for the permanent residence card.
And of course I'm realising that I'm missing ONE but very important document. From 6 years ago.

This stuff is stressful beying belief.

And isn't helped by the latest decision form the government.

So, like probably a hell of of other EU citizens I'm scared. Not scared to go back 'to my home country' (we'll forget I have lived longer in the U.K. Than in said country).

But Scared to go back and leave my dcs here.

I hate the fact that TM is moving before anything has even started, putting in place all that needs to be to deport people ASAP. That she has (very silently) already set up the rules of who can and who can't stay.
There is no negociations there. :(:(
And all the while, there is supposed to be discussions with the Lords and what not on the right tonstay for EU citizens.
She doesn't care.

RedAndYellowPeppers · 28/02/2017 11:37

It's like half the population has had an empathy amputation.

Nope it's like the population has been brainwashed with propaganda and there was no one to oppose it.

I know there are plenty of people on here who are saying they are horrified. But I maintain that the English population as a whole does not really want to keep eu citizens here and will not fight for us. Nor will they fight for all the British citizens that will be affected in the process (the spouses, children, parents etc).
Because we are not them.

LurkingHusband · 28/02/2017 11:47

It's like half the population has had an empathy amputation.

or

I know there are plenty of people on here who are saying they are horrified. But I maintain that the English population as a whole does not really want to keep eu citizens here and will not fight for us.

I agree with the first point of view. There are a few threads running on MN about welfare cuts - and disability cuts in particular, and there is a general tone - maybe not a majority but certainly not hidden - of fuck the poor

unicornsIlovethem · 28/02/2017 12:08

There is a new Jack of Kent blog about Brexit and the WTO schedules. The article is in the FT and can be googled, but there is a synopsis here jackofkent.com/2017/02/brexit-and-the-wto-schedules/. In short, time-consuming, tedious and painful but should be resolvable eventually.

DorothyL · 28/02/2017 12:09

Certainly on facebook if I share stuff related to #righttostay the only likes I get are from a Dutch friend Sad

missmoon · 28/02/2017 12:13

"There is a new Jack of Kent blog about Brexit and the WTO schedules. The article is in the FT and can be googled, but there is a synopsis here jackofkent.com/2017/02/brexit-and-the-wto-schedules/. In short, time-consuming, tedious and painful but should be resolvable eventually."

He does also say that sector-based agreements are not possible under WTO rules, which seems to be the government's main policy for dealing with single market / customs union membership.

Peregrina · 28/02/2017 13:02

From the FT article:

If this is the case then the WTO renegotiation is undoubtedly fiddly and tiresome – about as complex a technical readjustment as one can imagine – but it is ultimately not a predicament but a chore.

So far, so good. Boring and time consuming but doable.

But taking a step back for a moment, the matter of Brexit takes place at an interesting moment in the history of the WTO. Since the organisation was established in 1995, as a permanent successor to the GATT rounds of negotiations, it has not been able to point to many discreet successes. The Singapore issues of 1996 were (and remain) divisive; the proposed “millennium” round of 1999 ended in disarray; and the Doha “development” round which started in 2001 has still not concluded. The WTO did not even bother to have any of its supposedly regular meetings between 2005 and 2009.

Why does this not fill me with confidence?

So far as I can see, a settlement with any organisation can be agreed with goodwill on both/all sides. So far, the UK Government is hell bent on destroying any goodwill with the rest of the EU. As far as the US is concerned it seems to be any deal will be good enough. Even if the US grinds the UK's face into the dust, that will be just fine.

Cailleach1 · 28/02/2017 13:11

It is interesting about the right of abode for Irish citizens. Taking into account the Good Friday Agreement.

People from Northern Ireland can identify as Irish, British, or both. Take for example someone from Northern Ireland who identifies as Irish. Only Irish. Has Irish passport, etc.Where would you even deport them to? Their identity is from Northern Ireland. It would also be very odd to try to deport someone from the indigenous population whose ancestors are there for millennia.

Mind you, authorities might just look at birth cert, see part of the UK and ignore the other bit.

There is separate legislation giving Irish Citizens from Ireland the right of abode. This is conditional as well, though.

'special status comes from section 1(3) of the Immigration Act 1971, the legislative basis for the Common Travel Area.

It is not publicised by the Home Office, but reference can be found in the Home Office Nationality Instructions, EEA and Swiss citizens (pdf)

"5.3 ... Citizens of the Irish Republic, whether exercising EEA free movement rights or not, are not normally subject to any form of immigration control on arrival in the UK because of the Republic's inclusion in the Common Travel Area (s.1(3), Immigration Act 1971)" '

Who knows what will happen?

ElenaGreco123 · 28/02/2017 13:17

Brexit: EU nationals express panic after Government alters residency rules

EU citizens living in the UK have expressed panic and confusion after it emerged new regulations brought in by the Government allow the Home Office to remove some of them from the country if they do not have a comprehensive sickness insurance (CSI).

A briefing published by a barrister revealed that the Home Office acquired controversial new enforcement powers against EU citizens from 1 February.

It warns those EU citizens who are not considered to have a "right of residence", including some students and spouses of UK citizens, and who do not have CSI, could be deported or refused entry back into the UK if they leave.

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/brexit-latest-eu-national-right-to-live-uk-theresa-may-panic-a7602191.html

The briefing: www.freemovement.org.uk/briefing-legal-status-eu-citizens-uk/

Cailleach1 · 28/02/2017 13:23

Peregrina, it does not seem to matter what the facts about the WTO are. Even when there in correction or clarification, it is like the facts were never uttered.

People act like you can still cherry pick and treat countries differently irrespective of whether there is a trade agreement in place or not.

Farage on A.Neil was corrected when he said the UK can just slap higher tariffs on German cars in certain scenarios. He must have gone with this bs a few times as some researcher had a paper for Neil which said, under WTO, you cannot give different treatment to countries when you don't have a trade agreement with them. Did Farage say fair cop, I'm just making it up and bull shi**ing as I go along"? Did he heck. He just breezed on and gave another thing 'we' could do. I don't know if that was legal either.

Motheroffourdragons · 28/02/2017 13:27

This reply has been deleted

This has been deleted by MNHQ to protect the privacy of the user.

Mistigri · 28/02/2017 13:28

Re Irish citizens, I confidently expect a deal. Low hanging fruit for May, plus she doesn't want a return to bombs in the city. Trade will be a much harder nut to crack of course.

Mistigri · 28/02/2017 13:32

Reading that 'free movement' article, Elena, it is very confusing

If I am not mistaken the confusion is between the criteria for ordinary residence and for permanent residence. An EEA citizen who is for eg a spouse of a UK citizen can legally use the NHS, but bizarrely they can't rely on the NHS as evidence of comprehensive health insurance.

I believe the EU is taking the UK to court over this definition of what constitutes comprehensive healthcare, though it doesn't help with the uncertainty now.

(I'd have thought the UK would lose this one, as the french tried a similar thing with EU migrants a while back and were made to row it back).

Peregrina · 28/02/2017 13:33

People act like you can still cherry pick and treat countries differently irrespective of whether there is a trade agreement in place or not.

This reminds me of a couple of lines in Frankopan's The Silk Roads - someone in Britain saying - "we may grant you Independence" and the other party laughing and saying "we will take Independence" with the implication that you won't be able to stop us.

So it will be with Treaties - the UK will find that it hasn't got the might of the Empire behind it anymore. It won't be able to send the gunboats in to get co-operation.

RedToothBrush · 28/02/2017 13:48

Faisal Islam‏ @faisalislam 40m
hour before Johnson speech, Nissan VP told Commons Trade committee that company would re-examine its investment strategy post brexit terms..

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
Handlesblatt on BMW pondering new mini production moving to Germany or Holland from Oxford... decision this year:
global.handelsblatt.com/companies-markets/britain-could-lose-electric-mini-to-germany-713882

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/28/douglas-carswell-suggests-ukip-basket-case-nigel-farage-calls/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw
Ukip donor Arron Banks says he will run against Douglas Carswell in next election afterMP describes his own party as a 'basket case'

OP posts:
Cailleach1 · 28/02/2017 13:55

I wonder in what constituency Arron Banks would stand for election? It would be interesting to have the spotlight on him. I imagine any bodies would be buried well in advance.

Farage is spitting feathers about his knighthood!

woman12345 · 28/02/2017 13:57

He represents himself and no one else. A terrible individual that's done his best to destroy UKIP. twitter.com/markreckless/status/836337232114028544

Arron, watch your language; "whose" rather than "that's" unless Carswell is an object.

Learn to write in the language, matey.

Yeah, I'm elitist and proud of it! Guess what I had for lunch Grin

Peregrina · 28/02/2017 14:04

Banks, Carswell plus an official Tory candidate standing in the next election in Clacton? Bring it on, let's see the vote split three ways. Who knows, the Monster Raving Loony party might be in with a chance then, and quite honestly, they wouldn't do any worse.

woman12345 · 28/02/2017 14:07

If Banks is serious about his 'party' he is going to have to look for some excellent candidates, any whispers about any more tories about to jump?

Cailleach1 · 28/02/2017 14:17

I dunno Sushi? booze

Cailleach1 · 28/02/2017 14:18

Oh, he is not just putting himself up for election as a kipper, then.

woman12345 · 28/02/2017 14:21

He's going to start his own party, to destroy the tories.

Cailleach1 · 28/02/2017 14:23

The MR Loonies are quite homely in comparison to these kipper guys. I was amazed the first question to the UKIP meps (or any kipper) at the moment is not about the investigation into their misuse of funds. Is that corruption or fraud? Not a dickie bird on Andrew Neil.

Cailleach1 · 28/02/2017 14:24

Is he going to be the shadowy figure behind the scenes again? Mind you, the ones in front of the scenes are just as shady.

Cailleach1 · 28/02/2017 14:25

That should be in the scenes.