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Brexit

Westministenders: Tell Boris it should be more Stokenders and Copenders

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 22/02/2017 16:17

FINALLY this is the thread of the Copeland and Stoke By-Elections.
In the next few days we will be subjected to a whole pile of analysis from the media most of which will completely miss the point, and will waffle on about Brexit as if it’s the only issue ever and this is what matters to everyone.

Its bollocks.

This is the ‘Westminster Bubble’ that doesn’t report what is on the ground. It includes the media and the politicians who ran into town for the election, never to set foot there ever again. In one case pulling faces at the local children. In another desperately trying to prove how local he is.
Is it any wonder some think that all politicians are all the same?

You can learn far more about what really matters by reading the Stoke Sentinel and The Whitehaven News than reading The Sun or The Mail, those great champions of Leave. (Fancy that local papers being more relevant to a community than a national ones).

The by-election in Stoke has been a particular display of pond life style campaigning. We’ve had Hillsborough, ‘dodgy addresses’, arrest of a candidate, text messages saying you’ll go to hell for voting ‘wrong’, letters that say that MPs voted differently to the way they did, an activist being hunted by the police for trying to enter someone’s house and then pissing on her property, crying candidates, faked photos on twitter, dodgy sexist tweets from candidates dragged up, photographs with known far right activists, egg throwing and vandalism.

The word that keep coming out? Not ‘Brexit’. But ‘Change’.

What have the main parties in either election really added in terms of positive change?

Tomorrow’s weather will not help matters. The chances are that it will keep turnout down, making those postal votes more important. It will drive out the angry to vote whilst the apathetic and hopelessly disillusioned will stay home. The result will not be decided by the 60%+ of the electorate who voted to leave the EU. It will be decided by a fraction of that.

Someone has to lose. There will be political blood shed. Friday will see the political blame and finger pointing I doubt anyone will get it.
The real story is about how few people will vote and how few people think their vote counts for anything.

Immigrants and ‘benefit scroungers’ are not to blame for this. Nor is it even the ‘cultural elite’. Politicians have a duty to the whole country, to do the best for them all. Not to merely do the ‘will of the people’. Popularism does not help people. It merely starts a runaway train of the tyranny of the majority. You don’t give children sweets because they demand them. You educate children, and nurture them. If they are unaware of real issues, you make sure they learn and you explain why you are making unpopular decisions honestly, rather than feeding them a crock of shit. Because that’s your job as a PM, as MP, as a MEP, as an elected mayor, as a county councillor, as a borough councillor, as a parish councillor. To step up.

We need politicians with the back bone to do the right thing for all, rather than just worrying about their electoral strategy and how to con people to vote for you this time. We need politicians to actually take the responsibility of office rather than see it as a career opportunity.

The issues that matter most to people ultimately are not about the EU. They are not about immigration. It’s too easy to blame on immigration rather than tackle the infrastructure problems of the country and admit where you have gone wrong in the past. It’s easier to drive an hysterical fear of terrorism and cultural values being in danger from an enemy far away rather than look at who is really responsible.

If people don’t think that others are unaware of the problem, and don’t care about them and how they are being thrown under the bus, they are wrong. Plenty of people on both sides of the EU referendum debate get it.

Plenty on both sides don’t and are indulging the fantasy land excuses for domestic political failure.

The question is how do you get that message out, in a way that makes a difference and does change things? How do you break the stereotypes of the stupid and the patronising? How do you get people like the Nathan from Stoke to be heard and to believe in politics. Not believe in Brexit. Believe that politics can help them.

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Thread gallery
11
SwedishEdith · 24/02/2017 00:10

I know postal votes are meant to favour the Tories but in the referendum, "postal voters appear narrowly more likely to have backed Remain than those who voted in a polling station". Are traditional Labour voters in Copeland older or younger? We'll find out soon enough, I suppose.

RedToothBrush · 24/02/2017 00:12

Alex Wickham ‏*@WikiGuido*
Prediction from the LibDems...

Copeland - Tory win

Stoke - Lab 1st, UKIP 2nd, Tories 3rd

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woman12345 · 24/02/2017 00:13

@NCPoliticsUK
.@faisalislam suggesting #stokebyelection turnout is more like 25-30
12:04 AM - 24 Feb 2017

prettybird · 24/02/2017 00:14

I think in a referendum, postal votes tend to favour the status quo - the "conservative" (small c) choice if you like. Hence No in the Indyref and Remain in the EU Ref.

RedToothBrush · 24/02/2017 00:20

Stoke-on-Trent CC ‏*@SoTCityCouncil*
The voter turnout for the #StokeCentral by-election is confirmed at 38.16% total votes 21,200, postal 4,335 & poll 16,865 votes

Significant. Much higher than expected.

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RedToothBrush · 24/02/2017 00:27

Turnout in Copeland is 51.35%

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Cailleach1 · 24/02/2017 00:29

Oakeshott uses the same ploy all the time. When she wants to appear the bearer of some insight she attacks whoever she wants to diminish by saying "you're 'banging' on about.... ". Anyone who she wants to contradict or dismiss doesn't give an opinion, they 'bang' on about something.

RedToothBrush · 24/02/2017 00:38

IF Stoke is similar to the Sleaford pattern, then this would be roughly where you would expect the result to come out as:

LAB: 9330 (42.5%)
UKIP: 5375 (24.5%)
CON: 5350 (24.4%)
LD: 990 (4.5%)

Now I don't think it will be this (plus the numbers don't quite at up to the actual number of votes cast), but I do think its an interesting comparison to look at when the result does come in. It slightly surprises me as it does interestingly put LAB close to 5000 ahead and its also consistent with the UKIP / CON battle for third too.

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SinisterBumFacedCat · 24/02/2017 00:43

I reckon UKIP will win Stoke. Curse of 2016 continues Sad

BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2017 00:45

UKIP's only MP Douglas Carswell on QT:

"most likely outcome is Labour will win".
"although we fought a good campaign... we do need to accept we have a problem and that is that we are not given the benefit of the doubt."

"We need to ask ourselves what is it about our values that means people aren't giving us the benefit of the doubt." Hmm

Carswell is a relatively sane Kipper, who often seems embarassed / disgusted by what he has joined:
He defected to UKIP in 2014 from the Tories, but has never got on with the UKIP org or leaders - especially bad relations with Farage.

So UKIP have managed to have a party split while only having one MP Grin

Imo, shows they are a squabbling, disorganised shower
They can organise a massive protest vote, but that's different to creating an effective voice in Parliament, very different to managing to take power - Corbyn take note.

BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2017 00:47

So their only MP thinks they haven't won Stoke.

BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2017 00:51

The Monster Raving Loony party have arrived at the Stoke count.
They'll fit right in with Nuttall

RedToothBrush · 24/02/2017 00:52

John Woodhouse ‏*@jwoody67*
Two horse race Brereton out of it. Count looks like going the way of Snell. #Stoke Central

Stoke Sentinel journalist^

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RedToothBrush · 24/02/2017 00:57

Matt Hancock MP for CONs is on This Week with Andrew Neil.

He couldn't remember the name of the Conservative candidate's name in Stoke.

He's been campaigning there for this by-election.

Next time someone tells me how smart the government is and how much more well informed they are than randoms on the internet, remember this.

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BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2017 00:57

For UKIP, the question may be: will they come 2nd or 3rd in Stoke
For Labour: have they lost Copeland

Tories don't have anything much at stake, but winning Copeland would be a real morale boost for them. If they also manage even a squeezed in 2nd in Stoke, then they'll be cock-a-hoop.

RedToothBrush · 24/02/2017 01:01

Eve Keith‏*@EveK1979*

Seriously? #ukip blaming the @guardian and @Channel4 for potential loss in the #stoke by-election? ?

Stoke Central, that hotbed of Guardian readers.

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BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2017 01:02

red Grin
MPs are clever at getting selected for winnable seats, then managing to win more votes than their opponents - (but still usually getting well under half of votes cast)

These talents for self-promotion are not related to any knowledge of science, business, trade, economics, foreign or military affairs.

RedToothBrush · 24/02/2017 01:06

These talents for self-promotion are not related to any knowledge of science, business, trade, economics, foreign or military affairs.

Isn't that type of knowledge a strategic disadvantage because you might have to give a complex answer that doesn't fit into 140 characters?

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BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2017 01:07

joncraigSKYY @joncraig*
So tense at Copeland count you could hear a pin drop. Silence! Result now expected earlier, between 2am & 2.30, informed source tells me.

joncraigSKYY @joncraig*
One Tory source at Copeland predicts victory by 1,000. Others think less than that. "LibDems doing well", "Ukip have bombed," it's claimed.

Cailleach1 · 24/02/2017 01:09

"These talents for self-promotion are not related to any knowledge of ............. military affairs."

They are big on fighting, though. Infighting and Steven Woolfe ended up in hospital.

RedToothBrush · 24/02/2017 01:18

WriteYou‏*@WriteYouMedia*

00:12 update: Labour will win #StokeCentral by 3k+ and lose #CopelandByElection by 1k+

Labour source^

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BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2017 01:18

Breitbart London Article - just saw the headline in Google, I refuse to link there

"46 mins ago - EXCLUSIVE: Paul Nuttall Slams 'Disgusting' Left Wing and 'Anti-Fascist' Attacks in Stoke By-Election .."

Ah, diddums thinks he's lost
Anti-fascists would upset him too

Breitbart support shows the kind of party UKIP really are - alt right

RedToothBrush · 24/02/2017 01:20

Few people still counting in Stoke. Declaration within the hour I suspect.

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RedToothBrush · 24/02/2017 01:27

George Makin‏*@hackedoffphoto* 4m
@politicalhackuk no big Ukip names out tonight. On the BBC, a London asembly member no one has ever heard of before. Where's Nigel? #stoke

Interesting observation....

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BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2017 01:27

Ukip chairman Paul Oakden - when asked what would happen if Nuttall did not win, said:

"He has a well-earned rest and then he comes back and leads our party, I suspect.
The whole narrative of Paul’s leadership depends on winning in Stoke is a nonsense.
The membership are behind Paul, they want him to be leader of the party, he wants to be leader of the party and whatever the result here is, that’s not going to change."

Labour are very pleased about the 38% Stoke turn-out: “Our huge final hours ‘get out the vote’ operation in Stoke appears to have made all the difference,” one source said.

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