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Brexit

Westministenders: Tell Boris it should be more Stokenders and Copenders

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 22/02/2017 16:17

FINALLY this is the thread of the Copeland and Stoke By-Elections.
In the next few days we will be subjected to a whole pile of analysis from the media most of which will completely miss the point, and will waffle on about Brexit as if it’s the only issue ever and this is what matters to everyone.

Its bollocks.

This is the ‘Westminster Bubble’ that doesn’t report what is on the ground. It includes the media and the politicians who ran into town for the election, never to set foot there ever again. In one case pulling faces at the local children. In another desperately trying to prove how local he is.
Is it any wonder some think that all politicians are all the same?

You can learn far more about what really matters by reading the Stoke Sentinel and The Whitehaven News than reading The Sun or The Mail, those great champions of Leave. (Fancy that local papers being more relevant to a community than a national ones).

The by-election in Stoke has been a particular display of pond life style campaigning. We’ve had Hillsborough, ‘dodgy addresses’, arrest of a candidate, text messages saying you’ll go to hell for voting ‘wrong’, letters that say that MPs voted differently to the way they did, an activist being hunted by the police for trying to enter someone’s house and then pissing on her property, crying candidates, faked photos on twitter, dodgy sexist tweets from candidates dragged up, photographs with known far right activists, egg throwing and vandalism.

The word that keep coming out? Not ‘Brexit’. But ‘Change’.

What have the main parties in either election really added in terms of positive change?

Tomorrow’s weather will not help matters. The chances are that it will keep turnout down, making those postal votes more important. It will drive out the angry to vote whilst the apathetic and hopelessly disillusioned will stay home. The result will not be decided by the 60%+ of the electorate who voted to leave the EU. It will be decided by a fraction of that.

Someone has to lose. There will be political blood shed. Friday will see the political blame and finger pointing I doubt anyone will get it.
The real story is about how few people will vote and how few people think their vote counts for anything.

Immigrants and ‘benefit scroungers’ are not to blame for this. Nor is it even the ‘cultural elite’. Politicians have a duty to the whole country, to do the best for them all. Not to merely do the ‘will of the people’. Popularism does not help people. It merely starts a runaway train of the tyranny of the majority. You don’t give children sweets because they demand them. You educate children, and nurture them. If they are unaware of real issues, you make sure they learn and you explain why you are making unpopular decisions honestly, rather than feeding them a crock of shit. Because that’s your job as a PM, as MP, as a MEP, as an elected mayor, as a county councillor, as a borough councillor, as a parish councillor. To step up.

We need politicians with the back bone to do the right thing for all, rather than just worrying about their electoral strategy and how to con people to vote for you this time. We need politicians to actually take the responsibility of office rather than see it as a career opportunity.

The issues that matter most to people ultimately are not about the EU. They are not about immigration. It’s too easy to blame on immigration rather than tackle the infrastructure problems of the country and admit where you have gone wrong in the past. It’s easier to drive an hysterical fear of terrorism and cultural values being in danger from an enemy far away rather than look at who is really responsible.

If people don’t think that others are unaware of the problem, and don’t care about them and how they are being thrown under the bus, they are wrong. Plenty of people on both sides of the EU referendum debate get it.

Plenty on both sides don’t and are indulging the fantasy land excuses for domestic political failure.

The question is how do you get that message out, in a way that makes a difference and does change things? How do you break the stereotypes of the stupid and the patronising? How do you get people like the Nathan from Stoke to be heard and to believe in politics. Not believe in Brexit. Believe that politics can help them.

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Thread gallery
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RedToothBrush · 24/02/2017 01:30

Paul Nuttall just arrived at Stoke Count. Declaration can't be too far off then.

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RedToothBrush · 24/02/2017 01:37

Britain Elects‏*@britainelects* 4m
Source: Paul Nuttall tells UKIP activists he will "absolutely not" resign as leader in the morning if he does not win Stoke Central.

With declaration imminent, does that sound like a UKIP victory on the cards???

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RedToothBrush · 24/02/2017 01:42

Matt Hancock MP is dreadful

Guido Fawkes ‏*@GuidoFawkes*
After forgetting Tory candidate's name, now Hancock calls the Copeland nuclear power station "Moorfield". @afneil corrects him: "Moorside".

No wonder the was given a safe seat rather than a marginal...

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RedToothBrush · 24/02/2017 01:44

Faisal Islam ‏*@faisalislam*
Overheard Ukip's Nuttall "if I haven't won it's because i haven't got enough votes"

Confused
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RedToothBrush · 24/02/2017 01:46

Edward Hardy ‏*@EdwardTHardy*

Labour sources blaming a potential lose in Copeland on Jeremy Corbyn: "If we lose Copeland, it's not down to our campaign but our leader"

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RedToothBrush · 24/02/2017 01:57

Even Andrew Neil is saying that the Labour representative is owning Matt Hancock over his answers!!!

He is the worst Tory MP rep I've ever seen doing media show. He's not even managing to brazen it out with crap. He's just useless!

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Butterymuffin · 24/02/2017 01:57

Nuttall yet again showing his intellectual powers 'not enough votes' Grin

All the tweets I can see think it's nail-bitingly close in Copeland.

RedToothBrush · 24/02/2017 02:09

Snell smiling.
Labour have it. Just waiting for the declaration. Lots of photos being taken of him.

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RedToothBrush · 24/02/2017 02:11

LAB 7853
UKIP 5233
CON 5154
LD 2083
GREEN 294

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RedToothBrush · 24/02/2017 02:14

Stoke result.

LAB not doing anywhere as well as they should. UKIP not doing well. They only just scraped 2nd by the skin of their teeth. CON holding vote that they have every election. LD doing much better than they should and possibly expected.

Result is actually not far off the Sleaford model, I posted upthread - except LAB did worse and LD did better. By about the same margin. Make of that what you will.

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roseshippy · 24/02/2017 02:15

Nuttall shit.

Tories kicking themselves for not trying.

Unelectable Corbyn holds on for at least another hour.

RedToothBrush · 24/02/2017 02:16

Britain Elects‏*@britainelects*
Stoke on Trent Central, result:
LAB: 37.1% (-2.2)
UKIP: 24.7% (+2.1)
CON: 24.3% (+1.8)
LDEM: 9.8% (+5.7)
GRN: 1.4% (-2.2)

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roseshippy · 24/02/2017 02:20

Lab: 31.0% (-8.3%)
UKIP: 24.7% (+2.0%)
Con: 24.3% (+1.8%)
Lib: 9.8% (+5.6%)

Swing Labour->UKIP 5.2%

Labour quite shit really.

Were actually defending a big majority of 16.6% and rock solid Labour seat for umpteen generations but the epic unelectable useleness of Comrade Corbyn and the disasterzone that is Nuttall somehow spuna as a victory.

roseshippy · 24/02/2017 02:22

sorry actually 37.0%, not 31.0%, so only a swing of 2.2% to UKIP.

Still very poor for Corbyn.

RedToothBrush · 24/02/2017 02:27

Still sticking with Tories on winning Copeland.

Perhaps more like Tories 40% Lab 36% LD 12% UKIP 8% Green 3% Ish. As a guestimate. Perhaps a little closer.

Again on Sleaford model but with similar adjustment to LD/LAB vote to Stoke.

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GraceGrape · 24/02/2017 02:28

Couldn't sleep - perhaps the underlying fear of a UKIP MP was keeping me awake. I'm so relieved Nuttall didn't win, but to be honest, I can't feel that pleased about a Labour victory either. A bad result for Labour might be the only way to get Corbyn out but I couldn't bring myself to feel pleased about a Tory win in Copeland.

RedToothBrush · 24/02/2017 02:44

Labour voters are behaving in a fairly uniform way in leave leaning constituencies from what I can tell. Just put in the turnout and you can have a reasonable idea what might happen. If Labour voters are doing this uniformly imagine how that goes in more remain constituencies. Also remain constituencies will have a conservative haemorrhage. I don't have a rough model for a remain constituency because Richmond park was on the more extreme end, but you can bet there will be an effect similar but not quite as pronounced at a by-election.

General elections should be different again, but I don't think wholely unpredictable either. Ukip is being eaten by cons, cons loosing to LD as they move right, labour loosing to LDS as they move left and for the most part are not loosing too many more votes to ukip - they already lost them in 2015...

People's politics are not switching hugely. Lab and cons moving to the extremes. But the centre still exists.

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RedToothBrush · 24/02/2017 02:54

Copeland, result:
CON: 44.3% (+8.5)
LAB: 37.3% (-4.9)
LDEM: 7.2% (+3.8)
UKIP: 6.5% (-9.0)
IND: 2.6% (+2.6)
GRN: 1.7% (-1.3)

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roseshippy · 24/02/2017 03:03

Huge defeat for Labour in Copeland. Corbyn a fucking disaster.

6.7% swing to Conservatives.

No precedent for government winning a by-election from the opposition with such a big swing EVER (Mitcham & Morden in 1982 not really an exception, as the sitting Labour MP defected to SDP and stood against Labour in the resulting by-election)

RedToothBrush · 24/02/2017 03:18

Kippers did WORSE in Copeland than in Stoke. LDs seem to be roughly performing to script. As did Lab relatively speaking. It's Tory success with kipper voters that did for labour rather than LDs.

LD plus Lab vote would beat cons. But only just and doesn't take into account whether LDs would have stayed home in that situation. I did say I thought voting LD rather than Labour really didn't matter all that much.

This is starting to form a clear pattern that's getting harder and harder to ignore. It's not wildly unpredictable.

And since that's the case, what next for Corbyn?

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roseshippy · 24/02/2017 03:26

UKIP voters in Copeland voted Tory. UKIP weren't trying. Hence tactical voting made it a straight Labour vs Tory choice.

Tories tried in Copeland and succeeded. UKIP tried in Stoke and failed.

RedToothBrush · 24/02/2017 03:45

I think we need to think in terms of 2015 voters as blue kippers and red kippers. And 2010 red LDs and blue LDs. Plus angry remain true reds who may go yellow or green or stay home. And disillusioned leave true reds who will just give up completely.

Labour is utterly screwed by this dynamic. Utterly screwed.

Corbyn actually isn't completely to blame for it. It happened in 2010. It was previous Labour government. Miliband never solved anything and only looked better due to LD collapse. So all the Labour MPs from pre 2010 especially if cabinet should be looking in mirror and being very honest with themselves before they criticise Corbyn too much other wise they are missing half the point.

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RedToothBrush · 24/02/2017 04:08

As for Arron Banks...

Choices are stick with ukip and throw money away, new party which will do little, join the Tories, just lobby based on rep and media influence which probably will gradually fade away unless he goes even more shock jock, or aim for a young alt right movement which is perhaps what Lord Ashcroft has in mind to, to renew interest in politics with the young.

There are limited options for a new political party that is not ukip.

It's ironic. One of Banks dreams was to destroy the Cons. On that it is a failure.

Anyway sleep if I can stop thinking about number's

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Mistigri · 24/02/2017 06:00

Mike Smithson (election analyst) on Twitter: Stoke Central a reminder that UKIP's rubbish at first past the post. Their PR based MEP seats due to go in 2019

This has been my feeling for a while: regardless of what sort of brexit we get (or none), UKIP are on the slippery slope to irrelevance. They can't win FPTP seats, they turn out to be crap when they get elected onto local councils and then lose at the next election, and brexit means they will lose their European seats and funding.

Add in declining immigration and other negative impacts from brexit, and the one good thing that will come out of this is hopefully that Ukip are consigned to the dustbin.

Not surprised by either by-election result: really rather predictable. Slightly disappointing that the LDs didn't do better in Copeland I suppose.

howabout · 24/02/2017 06:19

*I think we need to think in terms of 2015 voters as blue kippers and red kippers. And 2010 red LDs and blue LDs. Plus angry remain true reds who may go yellow or green or stay home. And disillusioned leave true reds who will just give up completely.

Labour is utterly screwed by this dynamic. Utterly screwed.

Corbyn actually isn't completely to blame for it. It happened in 2010. It was previous Labour government. Miliband never solved anything and only looked better due to LD collapse. So all the Labour MPs from pre 2010 especially if cabinet should be looking in mirror and being very honest with themselves before they criticise Corbyn too much other wise they are missing half the point.*

Absolutely agree with all of this Red. Daily politics had a pro-Corbyn commentator yesterday saying similar. Until the Party stop fixating on the messenger - Corbyn - and start addressing the message they will not be an effective opposition.

Thanks for all the overnight updates. I agree UKIP is looking to be on the wane, which is good for everyone but perhaps not Labour in the short run due to blue kippers going back to the Tories. Although I am surprised how well the UKIP vote held up in Stoke.