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Brexit

Westministenders: Tell Boris it should be more Stokenders and Copenders

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 22/02/2017 16:17

FINALLY this is the thread of the Copeland and Stoke By-Elections.
In the next few days we will be subjected to a whole pile of analysis from the media most of which will completely miss the point, and will waffle on about Brexit as if it’s the only issue ever and this is what matters to everyone.

Its bollocks.

This is the ‘Westminster Bubble’ that doesn’t report what is on the ground. It includes the media and the politicians who ran into town for the election, never to set foot there ever again. In one case pulling faces at the local children. In another desperately trying to prove how local he is.
Is it any wonder some think that all politicians are all the same?

You can learn far more about what really matters by reading the Stoke Sentinel and The Whitehaven News than reading The Sun or The Mail, those great champions of Leave. (Fancy that local papers being more relevant to a community than a national ones).

The by-election in Stoke has been a particular display of pond life style campaigning. We’ve had Hillsborough, ‘dodgy addresses’, arrest of a candidate, text messages saying you’ll go to hell for voting ‘wrong’, letters that say that MPs voted differently to the way they did, an activist being hunted by the police for trying to enter someone’s house and then pissing on her property, crying candidates, faked photos on twitter, dodgy sexist tweets from candidates dragged up, photographs with known far right activists, egg throwing and vandalism.

The word that keep coming out? Not ‘Brexit’. But ‘Change’.

What have the main parties in either election really added in terms of positive change?

Tomorrow’s weather will not help matters. The chances are that it will keep turnout down, making those postal votes more important. It will drive out the angry to vote whilst the apathetic and hopelessly disillusioned will stay home. The result will not be decided by the 60%+ of the electorate who voted to leave the EU. It will be decided by a fraction of that.

Someone has to lose. There will be political blood shed. Friday will see the political blame and finger pointing I doubt anyone will get it.
The real story is about how few people will vote and how few people think their vote counts for anything.

Immigrants and ‘benefit scroungers’ are not to blame for this. Nor is it even the ‘cultural elite’. Politicians have a duty to the whole country, to do the best for them all. Not to merely do the ‘will of the people’. Popularism does not help people. It merely starts a runaway train of the tyranny of the majority. You don’t give children sweets because they demand them. You educate children, and nurture them. If they are unaware of real issues, you make sure they learn and you explain why you are making unpopular decisions honestly, rather than feeding them a crock of shit. Because that’s your job as a PM, as MP, as a MEP, as an elected mayor, as a county councillor, as a borough councillor, as a parish councillor. To step up.

We need politicians with the back bone to do the right thing for all, rather than just worrying about their electoral strategy and how to con people to vote for you this time. We need politicians to actually take the responsibility of office rather than see it as a career opportunity.

The issues that matter most to people ultimately are not about the EU. They are not about immigration. It’s too easy to blame on immigration rather than tackle the infrastructure problems of the country and admit where you have gone wrong in the past. It’s easier to drive an hysterical fear of terrorism and cultural values being in danger from an enemy far away rather than look at who is really responsible.

If people don’t think that others are unaware of the problem, and don’t care about them and how they are being thrown under the bus, they are wrong. Plenty of people on both sides of the EU referendum debate get it.

Plenty on both sides don’t and are indulging the fantasy land excuses for domestic political failure.

The question is how do you get that message out, in a way that makes a difference and does change things? How do you break the stereotypes of the stupid and the patronising? How do you get people like the Nathan from Stoke to be heard and to believe in politics. Not believe in Brexit. Believe that politics can help them.

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Thread gallery
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woman12345 · 23/02/2017 23:15

In Stoke Labour sources are now saying, although it’s early days, they are “very confident” they have held the seat.

RufusTheSpartacusReindeer · 23/02/2017 23:15

Aaah perfect explanation for me

Thanks red

tiggytape · 23/02/2017 23:16

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2017 23:18

Owen Bennett ‏*@owenjbennett* 2m
BUT NOW a Tory source says they are "much less confident" about winning Copeland and Stoke turnout is way, way down. Everyone hedging...

FFS make up your minds 'reliable' sources!

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RedToothBrush · 23/02/2017 23:23

Britain Elects‏*@britainelects*
Liberal Democrat GAIN Charterlands (South Hams) from Conservative.
Charterlands (South Hams) result:
LDEM: 46.1% (+46.1)
CON: 39.3% (-25.0)
LAB: 10.7% (+10.7)
GRN: 3.9% (-15.6)
No Ind unlike previous.

Before the 2015 boundary changes Charterlands was safe Conservative (it was uncontested in 2003) and the current ward has thus far continued in that vein. In 2015 – the only previous contest on these boundaries – the Tories beat the Greens 64-19. The ward is located within an equally safe Tory county division (Yealmpton).

LDs aren't having a bad night, regardless of Copeland and Stoke.

That's all three council byelections tonight done now.

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Peregrina · 23/02/2017 23:24

Any idea when the results are due?

It's very strange - the opinion polls show the Tories, or May, doing well, but they keep losing 'safe' seats to the LibDems. Something is going on. Maybe it's just that the LibDems electoral machinery is better tuned than the rest of them.

Cailleach1 · 23/02/2017 23:27

The way Greening is going on about Blair ignoring people re Iraq war, you'd think a whole host of Tories didn't vote for it.

Confused by Raynor saying Labour voted to trigger a50 because they represent their constituents. A few labour MP's had a remain constituency. Did they vote the wrong way then if they voted to trigger?

Just to finish, I think they are aggrandising Oakeshott calling her a journalist. More a columnist or sensationalist writer.

CarelessWispas · 23/02/2017 23:27

Question Time. Jesus. This country's really gone to the dogs. Peter Coates throwing pearls of learned business opinion to swine...

LadyOhDearOhDear · 23/02/2017 23:28

Local council elections most people don't vote in. Luv dems have good ground operation.

LadyOhDearOhDear · 23/02/2017 23:28

Whoops - lib dems not luv dems!

woman12345 · 23/02/2017 23:29

Josh Halliday
I just spoke to Andrew Stephenson, the Tory MP for Pendle, who is putting the brakes on any runaway triumphalism among his party colleagues.

Cailleach1 · 23/02/2017 23:29

Greening going yeah yeah to all blame on Blair. You'd think the Con's haven't had a look in on Gov't for decades.

Bloody hell, Oakeshott going on about people being unpatriotic.

CarelessWispas · 23/02/2017 23:34

Oakshott disgusts me.

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2017 23:35

Luv Dems is a kipperism!

Peregina, LDs performing better than polls is a measure of apathy / anger / turnout out in local elections.

The national polls are possibly also flawed in my opinion as LD support is concentrated rather than spread evenly in comparison to other parties.

Local elections are different though, as they tend to be about parties not personalities. This is where having a leader who people hate is a hindrance.

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TheElementsSong · 23/02/2017 23:40

Peter Coates is an unexpected breath of fresh air.

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2017 23:43

George Potter @georgewpotter
I honestly think Tories have bollocksed up expectation management re #Copeland - anything less than a gain will be seen as big failure.

This is important to the PR machine... UKIP guilty of the same thing.

THIS is the most accurate tweet of the night so far though:

Liam Vernon‏*@LiamVernon*

Unconfirmed source suggesting a party has won in Copeland & Stoke #byelection

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Cailleach1 · 23/02/2017 23:46

Peter Coates is a turn up for the books. The soundbiters can't touch him. He is not talking in soundbites.

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2017 23:49

(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges
Labour source re-Copeland: "Early samples look like we will win".

Daniel Hewitt @DanielHewittITV
Libs Dems say their numbers suggest a Tory win here in Copeland. Even on the night, but Tories beating Labour on postal votes to snatch it.

(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges
I think part of the problem tonight is you've got about half a different types of expectation management going on. Especially on Lab side.

(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges
Hold the mayo. Source at the Copeland count now tells me Tory boxes held up by closure of A66. Now neck and neck.

Still on the mind that Conservatives will win Copeland I think.

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woman12345 · 23/02/2017 23:51

Labour are starting to talk up the prospects of the Conservatives winning in Copeland. A source says that the constituency is looking neck and neck but that “the rural areas still to come in will probably favour the Tories.

woman12345 · 23/02/2017 23:57

Anne (chain women in childbirth) Widdecombe.

SinisterBumFacedCat · 23/02/2017 23:59

Oakshott is a wannabe Patriot Barbie. The QT was dominated by the far right tonight.

prettybird · 24/02/2017 00:01

Postal votes tend to favour the Conservatives as they tend to be used disproportionately by the elderly. Sad

SinisterBumFacedCat · 24/02/2017 00:02

I fucking dread to think what Anne Widdicombe would do to the NHS

woman12345 · 24/02/2017 00:07

@jessicaelgot
Team Tim Farron are convinced that Copeland (next door to them) has gone from red to blue
12:03 AM - 24 Feb 2017 · Stoke-on-Trent, England

RedToothBrush · 24/02/2017 00:08

I still think the 5000 majority for Labour in Stoke that was touted earlier is wildly out. I think some nerves could set in there in a while.

The word 'change' was everywhere in Stoke.

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