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Brexit

Westministenders: Tell Boris it should be more Stokenders and Copenders

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 22/02/2017 16:17

FINALLY this is the thread of the Copeland and Stoke By-Elections.
In the next few days we will be subjected to a whole pile of analysis from the media most of which will completely miss the point, and will waffle on about Brexit as if it’s the only issue ever and this is what matters to everyone.

Its bollocks.

This is the ‘Westminster Bubble’ that doesn’t report what is on the ground. It includes the media and the politicians who ran into town for the election, never to set foot there ever again. In one case pulling faces at the local children. In another desperately trying to prove how local he is.
Is it any wonder some think that all politicians are all the same?

You can learn far more about what really matters by reading the Stoke Sentinel and The Whitehaven News than reading The Sun or The Mail, those great champions of Leave. (Fancy that local papers being more relevant to a community than a national ones).

The by-election in Stoke has been a particular display of pond life style campaigning. We’ve had Hillsborough, ‘dodgy addresses’, arrest of a candidate, text messages saying you’ll go to hell for voting ‘wrong’, letters that say that MPs voted differently to the way they did, an activist being hunted by the police for trying to enter someone’s house and then pissing on her property, crying candidates, faked photos on twitter, dodgy sexist tweets from candidates dragged up, photographs with known far right activists, egg throwing and vandalism.

The word that keep coming out? Not ‘Brexit’. But ‘Change’.

What have the main parties in either election really added in terms of positive change?

Tomorrow’s weather will not help matters. The chances are that it will keep turnout down, making those postal votes more important. It will drive out the angry to vote whilst the apathetic and hopelessly disillusioned will stay home. The result will not be decided by the 60%+ of the electorate who voted to leave the EU. It will be decided by a fraction of that.

Someone has to lose. There will be political blood shed. Friday will see the political blame and finger pointing I doubt anyone will get it.
The real story is about how few people will vote and how few people think their vote counts for anything.

Immigrants and ‘benefit scroungers’ are not to blame for this. Nor is it even the ‘cultural elite’. Politicians have a duty to the whole country, to do the best for them all. Not to merely do the ‘will of the people’. Popularism does not help people. It merely starts a runaway train of the tyranny of the majority. You don’t give children sweets because they demand them. You educate children, and nurture them. If they are unaware of real issues, you make sure they learn and you explain why you are making unpopular decisions honestly, rather than feeding them a crock of shit. Because that’s your job as a PM, as MP, as a MEP, as an elected mayor, as a county councillor, as a borough councillor, as a parish councillor. To step up.

We need politicians with the back bone to do the right thing for all, rather than just worrying about their electoral strategy and how to con people to vote for you this time. We need politicians to actually take the responsibility of office rather than see it as a career opportunity.

The issues that matter most to people ultimately are not about the EU. They are not about immigration. It’s too easy to blame on immigration rather than tackle the infrastructure problems of the country and admit where you have gone wrong in the past. It’s easier to drive an hysterical fear of terrorism and cultural values being in danger from an enemy far away rather than look at who is really responsible.

If people don’t think that others are unaware of the problem, and don’t care about them and how they are being thrown under the bus, they are wrong. Plenty of people on both sides of the EU referendum debate get it.

Plenty on both sides don’t and are indulging the fantasy land excuses for domestic political failure.

The question is how do you get that message out, in a way that makes a difference and does change things? How do you break the stereotypes of the stupid and the patronising? How do you get people like the Nathan from Stoke to be heard and to believe in politics. Not believe in Brexit. Believe that politics can help them.

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Thread gallery
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RedToothBrush · 23/02/2017 21:48

Red - do you think labour will hold both seats or labour hold stoke and torries win Copeland? I'll stay up and keep you company

I honestly don't know. I suspect they will keep at least one. I would be surprised at losing two.

If Labour do lose Stoke, I don't think it will be to UKIP.

Labour, Cons and LDs seem to be on the same page and UKIP are strangely subdued and last picture I saw of Nuttalls today, he looked stressed rather than confident. At the moment.

Now seeing conflicting rumours that turnout is 30 - 32% in Stoke too though. If that's the case, fuck knows - I'm really not expecting it to be that high. The lower it is, the worse it is for UKIP. The higher it is, the less I have a clue!

I suspect we will hear a lot more rumours in about 15 minutes.

If I had to stake money on it right now, I'd say Labour will hold both. Just. I really don't rule out it being so close we get into recounts being a possibility.

Ask me again in about an hour and a half, and I'll probably say something different though!

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RedToothBrush · 23/02/2017 21:49

I would say that now would be a good time to work for a law firm, yes.

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woman12345 · 23/02/2017 22:02

No one's got the legal will or cash to challenge. Great chambers like Matrix Churchill aren't going in, they were heroic against Thatcher's corruption.

I want Labour to lose to get rid of the twit; I want Labour to win because it's Labour.

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2017 22:05

WriteYou‏*@WriteYouMedia* (A Labour source)
10:00pm update: Sources say @UKLabour could win in Stoke by over 5,000, with @Conservatives 2nd & @UKIP 3rd

Seems a little high.... Likely to be only in the region of 15,000 votes cast.

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Kaija · 23/02/2017 22:06

Wasn't there an unusually high number of postal votes? What do we think has driven this?

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2017 22:15

There were 6500 postal votes issued. This was considerably up on 2015 (think it was up about 10%). It depends on how many of those were actually cast though. Usually postal voters tend to be far more likely to vote than normal voters on the day.

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TheElementsSong · 23/02/2017 22:18

Segment on the 10 o' clock news about the fall in migration figures, interestingly focused on the muted response to it (from government) when you'd expect cheering from the rooftops.

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2017 22:21

Britain Elects‏*@britainelects*
Told turnout expected to be down to 30% (from 50%) in Stoke Central.
ITV reports the Tories are confident of gaining Copeland and that Labour are hoping to edge Stoke Central.

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woman12345 · 23/02/2017 22:24

I’m pretty sure Labour is going to lose tonight,” said John Procter MEP, who was out and about in the west Cumbrian constituency on Thursday

BigChocFrenzy · 23/02/2017 22:26

Opinium blog - "Copeland: Tory victory possible but not probable"

"If tonight’s by-election followed the regional polling, Labour would still win, but by less than 1% of the vote.
On one hand this means the constituency should be within the party’s reach, but on the other this means the governing party would need to outperform its polling average to nab a seat from the opposition.
Very rare."

"Copeland is one of the 40 constituencies with the largest proportion of 45 to 65 year ....
Tories are now polling 6 points higher amongst this group than immediately before the Referendum, mainly at UKIP’s expense"

http://opinium.co.uk/what-to-look-out-for-in-copeland/

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2017 22:32

Faisal Islam ‏*@faisalislam* 1m
Local major party campaign source in Stoke "would be surprised" if turnout hit 30% - expects 25%. Some wards at 11% in early evening

Ian‏*@Mancman10* 1m
Lib Dems saying turnout could be as high as 35% in #Stoke which will confound pundits, Turnout at the GE was just 49% + #StormDoris today

No one has a clue. Above tweets sent at the same time.

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Peregrina · 23/02/2017 22:40

Which of the parties is best at getting its vote out? I suspect not UKIP.

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2017 22:47

Mirror Politics ‏*@MirrorPolitics*
Turnout 'higher than expected' for Stoke and Copeland by-election - UKIP's Paul Nuttall spent final hour in pub

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RedToothBrush · 23/02/2017 22:49

UKIP has historically had trouble getting its vote out. This campaign is supposed to have been the best they have ever run in terms of organisation.

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RedToothBrush · 23/02/2017 22:51

My thinking on Copeland a while back was Cons 40%, Lab 33% LD 7%. I tend to think that might not be wildly off at this stage in proceeding. I hope I am wrong.

Based on past performance the LDs getting more than 10% would be a good showing for them.

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woman12345 · 23/02/2017 22:52

Looking a bit like that, red

woman12345 · 23/02/2017 22:59

Bit of light reading as we watch it unfold:

www.rense.com/general37/fascism.htm

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2017 23:04

council byelection result:

Britain Elects‏*@britainelects*
Liberal Democrat GAIN Barton (Kettering) from Conservative.

Barton (Kettering) result:
LDEM: 57.0% (+57.0)
CON: 29.8% (-19.3)
UKIP: 9.4% (-14.1)
GRN: 3.7% (-3.5)
No Labour unlike previous.

This was considered to be very safe Conservative seat I believe, but I will check.

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RedToothBrush · 23/02/2017 23:06

From Election-data.com

Barton’s election results are unremarkable; it’s a safe Tory ward. In 2015 the Conservatives had 49% of the vote to 23% for UKIP and 20% for the Labour slate. Most of the ward is within the safe-Tory Wicksteed division on Northamptonshire county council, although part of it is covered by the Ise county division which was marginal Tory-UKIP in 2013.

May 2015 result C 1660/1319 UKIP 791 Lab 683/590 Grn 244
May 2011 result C 1086/1081 Lab 618/543
May 2007 result C 1091/1024 Lab 439/396

LDs have not previously stood here!!!

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RufusTheSpartacusReindeer · 23/02/2017 23:07

Sorry i have lost touch with the thread

Can someone give me a minutes idiot guide as to why this election is so important

What difference does it make whoever wins

woman12345 · 23/02/2017 23:08

Another lib dem win, interesting labour had no candidate.
+57% seems a big increase?

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2017 23:11

Britain Elects‏*@britainelects* 1m
Conservative HOLD Chigwell Village (Epping Forest).
Chigwell Village (Epping Forest) result:
CON: 76.0% (+13.6)
LDEM: 24.0% (+20.5)
No Lab and Grn unlike prev.

Rufus, the word 'mandate' for the Conservatives, UKIP having a future and Corbyn having a future are why its important.

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tiggytape · 23/02/2017 23:12

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

woman12345 · 23/02/2017 23:12

@janemerrick23
Ukip conceding Stoke: Douglas Carswell saying on #bbcqt "most likely outcome is Labour will win"

LadyOhDearOhDear · 23/02/2017 23:13

Dimbleby saying labour have held both seats.