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Brexit

Westministenders: Tell Boris it should be more Stokenders and Copenders

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 22/02/2017 16:17

FINALLY this is the thread of the Copeland and Stoke By-Elections.
In the next few days we will be subjected to a whole pile of analysis from the media most of which will completely miss the point, and will waffle on about Brexit as if it’s the only issue ever and this is what matters to everyone.

Its bollocks.

This is the ‘Westminster Bubble’ that doesn’t report what is on the ground. It includes the media and the politicians who ran into town for the election, never to set foot there ever again. In one case pulling faces at the local children. In another desperately trying to prove how local he is.
Is it any wonder some think that all politicians are all the same?

You can learn far more about what really matters by reading the Stoke Sentinel and The Whitehaven News than reading The Sun or The Mail, those great champions of Leave. (Fancy that local papers being more relevant to a community than a national ones).

The by-election in Stoke has been a particular display of pond life style campaigning. We’ve had Hillsborough, ‘dodgy addresses’, arrest of a candidate, text messages saying you’ll go to hell for voting ‘wrong’, letters that say that MPs voted differently to the way they did, an activist being hunted by the police for trying to enter someone’s house and then pissing on her property, crying candidates, faked photos on twitter, dodgy sexist tweets from candidates dragged up, photographs with known far right activists, egg throwing and vandalism.

The word that keep coming out? Not ‘Brexit’. But ‘Change’.

What have the main parties in either election really added in terms of positive change?

Tomorrow’s weather will not help matters. The chances are that it will keep turnout down, making those postal votes more important. It will drive out the angry to vote whilst the apathetic and hopelessly disillusioned will stay home. The result will not be decided by the 60%+ of the electorate who voted to leave the EU. It will be decided by a fraction of that.

Someone has to lose. There will be political blood shed. Friday will see the political blame and finger pointing I doubt anyone will get it.
The real story is about how few people will vote and how few people think their vote counts for anything.

Immigrants and ‘benefit scroungers’ are not to blame for this. Nor is it even the ‘cultural elite’. Politicians have a duty to the whole country, to do the best for them all. Not to merely do the ‘will of the people’. Popularism does not help people. It merely starts a runaway train of the tyranny of the majority. You don’t give children sweets because they demand them. You educate children, and nurture them. If they are unaware of real issues, you make sure they learn and you explain why you are making unpopular decisions honestly, rather than feeding them a crock of shit. Because that’s your job as a PM, as MP, as a MEP, as an elected mayor, as a county councillor, as a borough councillor, as a parish councillor. To step up.

We need politicians with the back bone to do the right thing for all, rather than just worrying about their electoral strategy and how to con people to vote for you this time. We need politicians to actually take the responsibility of office rather than see it as a career opportunity.

The issues that matter most to people ultimately are not about the EU. They are not about immigration. It’s too easy to blame on immigration rather than tackle the infrastructure problems of the country and admit where you have gone wrong in the past. It’s easier to drive an hysterical fear of terrorism and cultural values being in danger from an enemy far away rather than look at who is really responsible.

If people don’t think that others are unaware of the problem, and don’t care about them and how they are being thrown under the bus, they are wrong. Plenty of people on both sides of the EU referendum debate get it.

Plenty on both sides don’t and are indulging the fantasy land excuses for domestic political failure.

The question is how do you get that message out, in a way that makes a difference and does change things? How do you break the stereotypes of the stupid and the patronising? How do you get people like the Nathan from Stoke to be heard and to believe in politics. Not believe in Brexit. Believe that politics can help them.

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Thread gallery
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Mistigri · 23/02/2017 18:27

Who's staying up for the election results? DH (Stoke born and bred) says that if it wasn't for being an hour ahead he might have watched because he "can't wait to see how many stupid pills the people of Stoke have taken" Grin.

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2017 18:38

Britain Elects‏*@britainelects*

Source on the ground in Stoke on Trent Central says Tories are siphoning off UKIP pledges. Enthusiasm to vote is low.

Hmmm....

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RedToothBrush · 23/02/2017 18:41

I'm definitely staying up.

Does everyone here have a close relative who comes from Stoke? It seems it!

Stoke is the place that everyone leaves if they can. Anyone with a good education certainly does. That in itself says something.

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RedToothBrush · 23/02/2017 18:50

George Eaton ‏*@georgeeaton* 3h
Tories and Lib Dems predict Ukip will come third in Stoke.

Things are starting to get interesting. If this is wrong, then Lib Dems and Tory election machines are both malfunctioning.

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BigChocFrenzy · 23/02/2017 18:55

Earth to UK !

I hope someone summarises for Davies the Dunce that Guardian article upthread about Brexit helping the EU-India trade deal...
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/23/brexit-could-help-eu-strike-free-trade-deal-india-meps

The govt seem to have miscalculated how important Uk trade is to India (much less than the EU is) and how much influence it has (maybe less than the EU has):

"“As a trading partner for India, Germany is the top EU country (rank number six), whereby the UK figures only rank 18 between Kuwait and Iran as a trading partner for India.
While the UK makes up 3.4% of India’s overall exports, it accounts only for less than 2% of India’s exports. "

"In addition currently the UK has by far the largest trade deficit in goods with India of any EU member states accounting for €2,611m (whereby Belgium and Germany have a large trade surplus with India).”

the visas India has been seeking for its skilled workers is a “political problem” for the UK if it wants a deal:
“India has a major interest in mode IV access for its service suppliers to the UK, which would also prove politically difficult (as most of the Indian service providers would certainly like to enter the UK for delivering temporary services).”

lalalonglegs · 23/02/2017 19:14

Turnout is likely to be so low in Stoke, the result could be in by midnight. Might be worth staying up if I can manage it, (I have now developed Pavlovian response to the QT theme music and fall asleep within a couple of bars)

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2017 19:16

Bradley Jessup @BradJessup97
Please spread awareness before Ballot Closes! UKIP rule breaking and badges at the Ballot in Stoke! #Stoke #Labour #Liberal #Election #Rules

Accompanied by a VERY blurry photo...

Second report I've seen today though.

TimAWells‏*@TimArticle50*

UKIP: RT Billukip: Very positive feeling from #UKIP teams out on stoke streets today #stoke #ukip #Paulnuttal

Someone is going to be disappointed then.

WriteYou‏*@WriteYouMedia*

7.06 update #stokebyelection Tory sources backing up our reporting about low turnout & trend of UKIP to Tory switch

Labour v Tory Battle on the cards? Its doable for the Tories especially with a low turnout.

Some nasty tweets about why you shouldn't vote UKIP / Labour on twitter today. Its not a good look for either side.

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RedToothBrush · 23/02/2017 19:22

WriteYou‏*@WriteYouMedia*

6.50pm update: Well respected source on the ground says Stoke is won for Labour echoing Lab's Elections Director.

Seems like people seem to be suggesting
1)LAB 2)CON 3)UKIP 4)LD

I wonder whether it will hold out to be true.

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Mistigri · 23/02/2017 19:22

Stoke is the place that everyone leaves if they can

Funnily enough this is the third time I've heard this today, from my MIL and DH Grin. DH still has quite a lot of family there though.

That QT panel seems designed to make Justine Greening look sane and mostly harmless.

ElenaGreco123 · 23/02/2017 19:47

I might keep the phone on tonight, but I will not stay up by the telly. We also have family there. DS has fond memories of our holiday in Stoke (we went to a wedding there).

woman12345 · 23/02/2017 20:07

Rapist administration to be made part of the commonwealth
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/23/donald-trumps-love-royal-family-may-see-united-states-join-commonwealth/
I guess they're commonly endowed with modest intelligence and based on their rape and domestic violence 'previous', I presume, their other endowments are similarly modest.
And they definitely like wealth.

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2017 20:10

Steven Priscott‏*@StevenPriscott*
#stokebyelection #StokeCentral #stoke #labour #UKIP very credible source confirms very very close vote - #council estates have flipped......

Isn't everyone very 'credible' and/or 'reliable' today?

That, or really desparate to get people to the polls.

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RedToothBrush · 23/02/2017 20:46

Write You @WriteYouMedia
8:40 update - #CopelandByElection very close reports Labour GOTV is working in #stokebyelection

That's a bit different from tweet at 6.50 where they were saying Labour had it in the bag...

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RedToothBrush · 23/02/2017 20:47

Sorry that's Copeland not Stoke.

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BigChocFrenzy · 23/02/2017 20:48

"In the Cumbrian seat of Copeland the Conservatives appear narrow favourites, Hmm with Sir Michael Fallon, the defence secretary, boasting yesterday that a Tory victory was “within our grasp”.

"Both parties fear that Storm Doris will reduce turnout, although Labour campaigners believe that urban voters may be less affected than rural Conservative voters."

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/labour-fears-tory-surge-on-stormy-by-election-day-mkcb36ckm

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2017 20:54

www.economist.com/blogs/bagehot/2017/02/go-north
The pragmatic case for moving Britain’s capital to Manchester

Meh. House prices would go through the roof. Birmingham can have it.

Or why not move it to Stoke in a two for one deal which regenerates the place and makes politicians get a bit closer to the action.

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RedToothBrush · 23/02/2017 20:59

What do you think chances of a recount tonight are?

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ElenaGreco123 · 23/02/2017 21:10

Depends on the margin.

Corcory · 23/02/2017 21:10

Hope you are watching Trevor Phillips on Channel 4.

LadyOhDearOhDear · 23/02/2017 21:11

Red - do you think labour will hold both seats or labour hold stoke and torries win Copeland? I'll stay up and keep you company Smile

LurkingHusband · 23/02/2017 21:12

Birmingham can have it.

Fuck off Grin

Peregrina · 23/02/2017 21:21

How many people think that the Commonwealth is likely to collapse when the Queen passes away? I for one do. So I don't give much credence to the Telegraph article. Trump will be gone in a few years time.

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2017 21:22

Far Right Watch IMP‏*@Far*RightWatch 24m
The 'word' from #Stoke: Labour confident they are "sufficiently ahead of Tories / Lib Dems. #Ukip said to be 'fighting for third'.

So the 'word' is that UKIP might not even get third...

This is more in line with what I thought could end up happening despite all the hype, but of course, I could be totally wrong yet.

We shall see.

Just seen a tweet saying 25% turnout max from a UKIP source. This is way below the Leave EU prediction of 33% and plays into LD and Con hands rather than UKIP.

Also ties up with what I thought of a 24 - 26% turnout.

Again, we shall see. if true, those postal votes start getting interesting. In theory someone could win on postal votes alone at this rate.

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Peregrina · 23/02/2017 21:32

I know that the Lib Dems have been fighting hard, although I don't think they have any chance, but a second place would be good. They do at least have a good candidate who is committed to the NHS.

The same with Labour in Copeland - a strong NHS focussed candidate. For many, many people when the chips are down, the NHS will matter more than Brexit.

It angers me, time spent on Brexit is preventing us from discussing NHS reform. We need to have a proper debate as to what sort of healthcare we want and are prepared to pay for, instead of this piecemeal sell off.

woman12345 · 23/02/2017 21:35

Meanwhile in America, Obama is raising funds to present legal challenges to illegal government actions.

unitedtoprotectdemocracy.org

How about same here, looks like there would be lots of potential cases:
Breach of Race relations Act in ref campaign? Sex Discrimination Act and gendered challenges to legal status of EU UK residents? DUP used to filter funds for Leave campaign? Illegal posters? Incitement to violence?
Conflicts of interest?