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Brexit

Westministenders: Boris is reminded of the Munich Post.

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 07/02/2017 11:36

The Munich Post was the 1930s German Newspaper that refused to normalise. It refused to bow to the threats and intimidation of the Nazi State. It was to eventually closed but it defended the truth to the bitter end.

With Trump’s systematic attacks on the Press and Judiciary we should take heed. We must stand up for our journalists who seek to serve the public rather than serve their masters and only chase profit.

We must ask why, right wing extremists when they make attacks are too frequently labelled simply as lone wolfs who exist within a vacuum, when it is widely accepted by intelligence services that Muslim extremists are often the products of online radicalisation and any element of mental history is totally irrelevant because of their religion.

The PM hiring advertising agents to try and deal with a problem of increasing racial tensions rather than talking to the newspaper executives who she has close relationships with, is a deliberate missing of the point.

It is an abdication of responsibility and is wilfully ignorant.

It is about time we addressed the hole of hatred in our society that exists properly. From all angles and approaches, from all parts of our society. The blind spot in failing to acknowledge how the media’s role in this only serves to fuel the divisions. It has become normalised. Powerful lobbying groups like the Freedom Association continue to deny that populism has contributed to a rise in hate crime pointing to a dislike for how incidents are recorded. Their influence in Westminster is too apparent.

Some of the comments made in the houses of commons and to the media by Tory MPs have been worryingly close to comments made by Trump and his associates. They have been worryingly close to online trolls. They have been laced with too many ‘alternative facts’ and full of exaggerated language about immigrants. Language, its use and context are important and powerful.

These are elected officials with a social responsibility. Instead they are continue to stir things. We no longer need Farage and worry about UKIP. We have a whole bunch of them in the HoC and a quick trawl though Hansard reveals them in all their glory. To a privileged white man they are Trump apologists. During the debate over Trump’s visit to the UK, one even thought it appropriate to woof at a female MP. In 2017.

We might be very British in the way our alternative facts are being expressed but the same threats are very much present within British politics as they are currently in US politics. We might not have anyone quite as brash and brazen as Trump (with the possible exception of Farage), but this makes it more not less dangerous. People like IDS and Johnson add respectably to the thin veneer of hatred and xenophobia.

A50 is likely to pass the commons, without amendment as things stand. (I think we need to watch the Lords with interest) We are perhaps likely to enter a period where things might quieten down in the UK for a time. We must be vigilant and not accept normalisation and continue to make noise about how we feel about the future of this country or we will be dominated by the agenda of these individuals who have little respect for the interests of anyone who is not part of their boys club.

Theresa May may not be one of them, but like Trump she craves their approval and does share many of their values. She is happy to pander to them, and them to her as she makes their toxicity somehow more acceptable.

What women do next is crucial. Do we want to accept this vision of the future? Now is not the time to fall silence and accept that things are equal now. We know the reality. And it affects all of us, regardless of how we voted on 23rd June.

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SwedishEdith · 09/02/2017 22:49

Britain Elects ‏*@britainelects*

Liberal Democrat GAIN Fairford North (Cotswold) from Conservative.

Motheroffourdragons · 09/02/2017 22:55

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This has been deleted by MNHQ to protect the privacy of the user.

LineysRun · 09/02/2017 22:56

I'm enduring QT so you don't have to.

LineysRun · 09/02/2017 22:59

I'm waiting for Billy Bragg to twat the UKIPer. He's got a look in his eye.

Peregrina · 09/02/2017 23:00

Liberal Democrat GAIN Fairford North (Cotswold) from Conservative.

Yes!
Fairford North (Cotswold) result:
LDEM: 68.1% (+40.2)
CON: 30.1% (-20.9)
GRN: 1.8% (+1.8)

UKIP didn't stand this time round.

No Mrs May, you don't have 65 million people behind you. The way you have ignored 16 million who did vote has not gone unnoticed.

Motheroffourdragons · 09/02/2017 23:02

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Motheroffourdragons · 09/02/2017 23:03

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RedToothBrush · 09/02/2017 23:04

I generally think opinion polls are right. They were right in the UK with in the margin of error in most cases. In the US they were right in States which voted Blue and don't have restrictive voting laws. Make of that what you will. The popular vote was correct too. Trump only won because there were not 40,000 votes in the right place.

I DO however think there is a slight issue with the current Westminster polling. I think it will show up later on down the line.

I was looking at the methodology for YouGov the other day and spotted it. It splits England into London, The South, The North and The Midlands I believe (can't be bothered to check right now).

There is a problem with this. The South has a couple of very distant patterns that seem to be emerging. The SW is proving to be different to the SE. And the SE has a north and a south.

The Midlands I think is still a bit of an unknown quantity to me. I've not seen a clear pattern emerging yet. There have been relatively few by-elections here.

The North has the North West and North East. Which are behaving differently. The NW is more dominated by big cities and this is reflected in patterns. UKIP, as a general rule, are not doing as well here as the media might lead you to believe even in places you might expect it. UKIP are doing much better in comparative towns in the NE.

This has implications. If there are pockets where parties are doing particularly well and the trends are a lot more concentrated and localised the sample sizes that YouGov are using might leave a few gaps.

I'm not sure about the methodology for other pollsters. YouGov just had it at the bottom of the stuff I was looking at, at the time and it jumped out at me.

I think that perhaps in the past, the distinctions and patterns have not been quite as polarised and localised in this way. And at the moment turnout is a big deal, so timing and engagement are going to be crucial. During the EU Ref, the Leave vote (and Republicans in the US) deliberately tried to demoralise people who might vote Remain (Democrat) to stop them from feeling there was a point in voting. I think this is something we should consider - intentions to vote in the young are currently WAY down in part due to disillusionment over Brexit. (I half suspect we are going to see a big push for the Greens coming from nowhere)

Anyway:

Britain Elects ‏*@britainelects*
Fairford North (Cotswold) result:
LDEM: 68.1% (+40.2)
CON: 30.1% (-20.9)
GRN: 1.8% (+1.8)
UKIP didn't stand this time round.

LD gain. In the Cotswolds.
No real surprise.

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Peregrina · 09/02/2017 23:11

I am not surprised myself about Fairford, but I would have expected the result to be much closer.

TheElementsSong · 09/02/2017 23:14

that woman said we are all brexiteers.

Well, the Prime Minister ^herself* has repeatedly assured us that this is so.

RedToothBrush · 09/02/2017 23:14

I am not a brexiteer. I never will be. I will be a citizen of the world held hostage by rampant overt propaganda.

If I hear the words 'it is very clear' or 'mandate' much more I might scream.

QT is like a lesson in which phrase to parrot for the next fortnight.

Power Black Out for the whole of Brussels. No apparent reason. (Hacked? Norway had a major attack including on its defence last week that largely went unreported) Places have been reinforced against terror attack.

I guess Trump will have something to tweet about over night / tomorrow.

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RedToothBrush · 09/02/2017 23:16

Waterside (North Norfolk) result:
LDEM: 55.1% (+19.8)
CON: 34.8% (-4.8)
UKIP: 6.5% (+6.5)
LAB: 3.5% (-8.5)
No Green this time round.

LD Gain

Again. No real surprise.

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SwedishEdith · 09/02/2017 23:18

It's quite funny watching people in the audience shake their heads as some Ukip plant spouts some nonsense about Britain ruling the world for 1000s of years.

Peregrina · 09/02/2017 23:24

If I hear the words 'it is very clear' or 'mandate' much more I might scream.

For myself, I am hoping that Scotland holds another Indy Ref with a 52 - 48 vote in favour, just for the delightful prospect of hearing Nicola Sturgeon talk about an overwhelming mandate.

It has already been noted in my own social circles that when May talks about it being 'clear' she is about to tell another lie. She clearly/obviously/surely never studied Law or she would have been told to avoid those words!

RedToothBrush · 09/02/2017 23:28

I have to say, DH and I play spot the Kipper now with QT.
The game is to try and work out which ones they are before they speak.
Its good when you get it wrong and you bust your preconceptions over appearance.

....And the US Appeals Court has just given Trump the finger over Muslim Ban.
Good stuff.

Looking forward to Trump's Twitter Melt Down (Lets face it, yes its winding the nutters up and is a very, bad thing. A Very Bad one. But we have to still laugh at it, as otherwise we just cry).

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RedToothBrush · 09/02/2017 23:30

Britain Elects ‏*@britainelects*
Kingswood & Hazel Leys (Corby) result:
LAB: 64.6% (+10.3)
CON: 26.7% (+12.5)
GRN: 8.7% (-1.1)
No UKIP candidate

LAB HOLD

Rumour from Election Data is UKIP have gained a seat from Ind. Not yet confirmed.

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LineysRun · 09/02/2017 23:32

So-called Appeal Court love terrists. BAD! This is not what Putin voted me in for. Nasty judges. Nasty.

Peregrina · 09/02/2017 23:35

What's happening to the UKIP candidates? (Even if they win from IND). Is it just that they have run out of money? Despite the huge BBC bias, with Farage on the TV weekly and always a Kipper on QT, and despite Labour's dismal showing in the HoC, the Labour vote doesn't quite seem to be collapsing as much as it should be.

Corcory · 09/02/2017 23:39

Wouldn't that be great if Trump did tweet that Liney!!!!

RedToothBrush · 09/02/2017 23:40

John Harwood ‏*@JohnJHarwood*
3-judge panel of 9th Circuit Appeals Court - two appointed by Democratic presidents, one by a Republican - ruled unanimously against Trump

Chris Bryant MP ‏*@RhonddaBryant*
So UKIP man just said Nuttall didn't say NHS should be privatised then said he'd changed his mind! #tellingitlikeitis

Britain Elects ‏**@britainelects**
Great & Little Oakley (Tendring) result:
UKIP: 36.8% (+14.1)
CON: 29.1% (+1.4)
LAB: 19.9% (+5.5)
LDEM: 14.1% (+14.1)
No Independent as prev.

UKIP GAIN

Britain Elects ‏**@britainelects**
Fylde Ratepayers HOLD St John's (Fylde).

!!!!!!

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RedToothBrush · 09/02/2017 23:46

Peregina, the YouGov poll I saw the other day was revealing.

UKIP voters likeliness to vote was WAY down.
Those voters who still plan to vote LAB at the next general were the voters MOST likely to vote.
More so than the LD and CON.
The problem I forsee with this, is that there are just less of them overall than previously. Labours vote looks a lot more hard core - as in, its what's left and would require a political nuclear bomb to shift if its not already shifted.

If this is the case, they will not be performing as badly in low turnouts, but come a GE they could be screwed.

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RedToothBrush · 09/02/2017 23:47

Britain Elects ‏*@britainelects*
St John's (Fylde) result:
FRAT: 60.8% (+15.9)
CON: 30.0% (+4.4)
LAB: 4.9% (-8.4)
GRN: 4.3% (+4.3)
No IND and LDEM candidate as previous.

Candidate doesn't turn up for a meeting for 6 months. Gains vote percentage.

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SwedishEdith · 09/02/2017 23:53

Donald J. TrumpVerified account
‏*@realDonaldTrump*

SEE YOU IN COURT, THE SECURITY OF OUR NATION IS AT STAKE!

RedToothBrush · 09/02/2017 23:55

Saw this. How many apply or can be adapted to the UK?

I am Muslim, register me
I am Mexican, deport me
I am African American, imprison me
I am LGBT, refuse to serve me
I am poor, blame me
I am elderly, privatise me
I am a woman, defund me
I am homeless, ignore me
I am disabled, bully me
I am sick, uninsure me
I am indigenous, pollute me
I am a veteran, voucher me
I am an American, lie to me
Who are you?

Muslim Ban Ruling includes paragraph:
There is no precedent to support this claimed unreviewability, which runs contrary to the fundamental structure of our constitutional democracy

OUCH

Reuters Politics ‏*@ReutersPolitics*

JUST IN: Trump says appeals court decision was political

Jamil Smith ‏*@JamilSmith*

The next step for Trump's ban is the Supreme Court, where a likely 4-4 tie leaves the appeals court decision intact.

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SwedishEdith · 09/02/2017 23:55

Is that Fylde result some weird local issue thing? Well, I know lots of council elections are local issue things but the recent ones have definitely been about Brexit.