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Brexit

Westministenders. For God sake Boris, is that the best plan you can come up with?

967 replies

RedToothBrush · 30/11/2016 10:25

Its now five months from the referendum. Plans for leaving should be well advanced by now. Shouldn't they? We should have got past this ridiculous idea that we can have our cake and eat it. Yet the plan is a secret, well apart from when the EU leak things to the press or junior ministers let their underlings carry their notes for them.

A photo taken this week outside Downing Street, suggests that the ‘Have Cake And Eat It’ Plan really is seriously being considered by the government. This plan is 'clear' it has been spelt out many times by the government and yet no one has a fucking clue what it is apart from a car crash of utter nonsense, wishful thinking and fingers in the ears. Its so clear that Theresa May has admitted she is losing sleep over it, and has faith that God will steer us through via her moral compass (which I suspect to have been left on top of a rather large electro-magnet given her track record so far)

Still this, however, seems to be better than the ‘Fuck You’ Plan (or should that be 'Fuck EU') that is official UKIP policy and is to ignore a50 and leave the EU unilaterally. And possibly illegally, so no one will ever want to make an international agreement with the UK.

And this, is still at least better than ‘We Have No’ Plan that Labour have.

Other suggested plans are:
The ‘Lets Leave the UK and Screw Ourselves Another Way’ Plan as supported by the SNP which the majority of Scots seem to be against
The Welsh are quietly cultivating the ‘Shh Nobody Mention We Voted Leave But Are Now Going to be Difficult’ Plan as they suddenly realise they are about to be shafted financially and might lose the Welsh Assembly in the process.
NI might still go down the ‘Lets Unify Ireland and Start Another Chapter in Violence’ Plan though, the alternative might well be the ‘Lets Stay in the Union and Start Another Chapter in Violence’ Plan anyway, so they are screwed due to the immense thoughtfulness of the English.
Meanwhile the Lib Dems are all about the ‘Lets Just Not Do This and Instead Risk a Revolt’ Plan.

If anyone does actually have a coherent plan, then there are lots of parties who would love to hear from you.

Lets be honest about the secrecy though. Its not about the EU knowing our plans. They already know what all our options are, or more to the point, aren't. The government want to keep it out of parliament because they want to control it, and because they don't want the press to know. They do not want transparency, as they are so weak and so fearful that they will be shown up for what they are, even when there is no opposition.

So we are screwed. Unless somehow someone comes to their senses and puts it to the EU that a50 isn’t fit for purpose and that a new treaty must be done to respect the democratic will of the people and the EU let us go down that route (Hey didn’t I say that months ago?).

Tomorrow we have the completely pointless and costly vanity by-election for Zac Goldsmith. The referendum about Heathrow and not at all about Brexit. Latest betting 2/7 on Goldsmith and 5/2 on the Lib Dems. I think Goldsmith with his good looks will just sneak it, unless turnout is really low. But it will be close.

Sunday we have the Italian Referendum, which some have suggested would the Italian Bank Melt Down (and start of a new Eurozone Crisis) though many here say this fear is massively over stated through Brexit tinted spectacles. Sunday also sees the Austria Presidential Election Re-run with the Far Right Candidate currently looking like he has the slight edge.

A50. The Supreme Court case starts next week. Scotland say they have a veto. Wales say they are worried about the Devolution Problem. NI still might have their defeat in the High Court overturned and there is the Good Friday agreement. The Supreme Court might insist that the Great Repeal Act might need to be passed before we can invoke a50. And the plan if the government lose is merely a 3 line Bill which they want to rush through in 5 days no one would dare defy. Well except the Lib Dems are already saying they want amendments to ensure parliamentary scrutiny and what is the point of the Lords if they don't. So there is a fair old chance that if the government loses given the wider scope of the Supreme Court Case, a 3 line bill simply won’t cover everything it needs to.

We still don’t know if the ECJ might get involved. It seems the Republic of Ireland, might have a say in that too. An ECJ referral would mean a 4 to 8 month delay, even with the sensitivity and the importance of the case.

Don’t forget if you were planning on going/worried about it the 100,000 March on the Supreme Court is off. Due to not being planned in the first place although Leave.Eu will tell you different.

Speaking of the Great Repeal Act. This is supposed to be started in May. This would give it less than two years to be ready before we left the EU. Yet it has a load of hurdles to leap in its sheer complexity, and there is a real danger this will not be long enough. If not done correctly it has the potential to mean the legal system would “fall over”. This is basically the legal equivalent of when you mean yourself in a time travelling sci-fi creating a paradox which threatens the very existence of time itself.

A127. Another treaty, another challenge? Possibly, but maybe only a way to bargain for the EEA rather than something more. But it just shows the legal headache Brexit is. We still could end up in the ECJ on any number of other issues – not just a50. You know this legal headache the government is ignoring by having no lawyer in the Brexit Cabinet, and UKIP are just plan delusional about.

Anyway UKIP have a new leader. Paul Nuttalls. (sic – see Stuart Lee). He wants to privatise the NHS though he denies having said it either on camera or on his blog. Everytime anyone says ‘Paul Nuttalls to you, remember to say ‘Oh the one who wants to privatise the NHS?’ Just to make sure everyone is away that he wants to privatise the NHS. Repeat Ad nauseam. Hell this is what Labour are going to be doing, as they are bloody terrified. Why? Simple. He will, of course, be hugely popular despite this cos he’s got the right accent and says the ‘right things’. By ‘right things’ I mean cos he spouts utter bollocks. Which probably means he’s also electable seeing as utter bollocks is now political currency. Plus Labour are rather lacking in any policies, so utter bollocks policies easily fill the void.

Talking of utter bollocks, I haven’t mentioned Trump yet. The Greens have requested a recount and are supported by the Democrats, though they say they haven’t found anything dubious themselves yet. Trump says it’s a scam. Goebbels once said when telling the Big Lie accuse your opposition of what you are guilty of yourself, so I'm not betting either way given that is the political strategy Trump has employed with gusto. I dread to think of the mess that would cause if the recount came out in favour of Clinton.

So another couple of fun weeks on the cards, which will have you reaching for the gin and wondering if there is anyone left alive who actually gives a toss about what happens to real people and isn’t prepared to commit economic and democratic suicide.

Only another month to go before the 2016 Repeal Act comes into force. 2017 looks smashing.
Shamelessly stolen from David Allen Green

OP posts:
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17
iwanttoridemybicycle · 02/12/2016 06:58

Brilliant news! So pleased for Sarah Olney!

Justchanged · 02/12/2016 07:08

Such great news - I can't stop smiling.

Hopefully Tory Remainers will have leverage against May now.

lalalonglegs · 02/12/2016 07:33

This feels like the first time I've woken up to good news this year {smile] Smile Smile.

Kaija · 02/12/2016 07:37

Hurrah!

Peregrina · 02/12/2016 07:39

That fight could break the Tories, squoosh.
We live in hope. There must be a lot of moderate Tories around who are absolutely horrified at the direction May is taking the party.

(perhaps Nicola Blackwood will reply to my letter now!)
Still waiting for replies from her to 3 letters. Another reminder that her 9,000 majority is not as safe as she thinks, may not go amiss.

Marmitelover55 · 02/12/2016 07:54

Theresa May represents another Remain constituency, Maidenhead. I bet she's quaking in her shoes this morning!

MangoMoon · 02/12/2016 08:00

Hopefully Tory Remainers will have leverage against May now.

Why?
Because an area that had one of the highest Remain votes in the U.K. confirmed that they indeed wish to remain in the EU?

squoosh · 02/12/2016 08:08

Because the Tories will see how fragile a former landslide majority of 23,000 can be. May's main preoccupation seems to be with ensuring the Tories stay in power rather than a sensible Brexit. Maybe now she'll realise she has to pander to more than just the extreme anti Europe brigade.

HyacinthFuckit · 02/12/2016 08:09

Because the Tories have a wafer thin parliamentary majority which includes a number of seats with high Remain votes. And this by-election has shown that she can't assume even one of the previously safest Tory seats in the country will put their Tory leanings ahead of their Remain leanings. Obviously.

merrymouse · 02/12/2016 08:15

I agree that the lib dems should have won this by election mango.

However, the fact that it was called illustrates that either:

  1. Goldsmith genuinely thought Remainers weren't a problem

Or

  1. May was happy to lose him and his much touted influence on Heathrow amounted to nothing.

As much as anything it's a vote against May's Conservative party. Goldsmith entered parliament on the back of Cameron and was probably helped by the moderating effect of the coalition.

This helps the 'Cameroons' as much as it does the lib dems.

MangoMoon · 02/12/2016 08:15

can't assume even one of the previously safest Tory seats in the country will put their Tory leanings ahead of their Remain leanings. Obviously.

Except a proportion of them clearly did.
Over 70% voted Remain, around 50% voted Lib Dem.

If they were indeed eschewing their Tory-ness in favour of Remain-ness, then the vote for lib dem would have surely been much higher.
Obviously.

Peregrina · 02/12/2016 08:18

Hopefully Tory Remainers will have leverage against May now.

And so far, they have all been to afraid to do anything but sing the party tune - the people have spoken. Not recalling that the Tory manifesto talked about supporting the Single Market, that might have been why their constituents put them in, in the first place.

Motheroffourdragons · 02/12/2016 08:20

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

Peregrina · 02/12/2016 08:24

If they were indeed eschewing their Tory-ness in favour of Remain-ness, then the vote for lib dem would have surely been much higher.

A lot of lifelong Tories will stay away, rather than vote for another party. In Richmond it sends a message that so far the 48% who voted to Remain do not like being ignored, as they have been, since May got into power.

cordelia12345 · 02/12/2016 08:26

Thank you and well done to kaija and lala for campaigning.
loved what Olney said
"We will defend the Britain we love. We will stand up for the open, tolerant, united Britain that we believe in. The people of Richmond Park and North Kingston have sent a shockwave through this Conservative Brexit Government. And our message is clear: we do not want a ‘hard Brexit’; we do not want to be pulled out of the Single Market; and we will not let intolerance, division and fear win."

Mistigri · 02/12/2016 08:29

It's a bit early to draw any firm conclusions, but I think we can say that pretty much all leave voters (who bothered to turn out) will have voted for ZG. I doubt Labour leave is much of a thing in Richmond. However, it's likely that some remainers will have voted for ZG too; for some remainers, a commitment to conservatism may outweigh their feelings about brexit (or they may have come to the conclusion that brexit will be so difficult to achieve that it is only going to happen if watered down to homeopathic levels, and they trust May ahd Hammond to do this).

I have some colleagues who are both committed conservatives and committed remainers, and it's hard to say which way they would go in an election.

lalalonglegs · 02/12/2016 08:30

According to Tim Farron on Today a few minutes ago, a third of people who voted Leave in RP, voted LibDem in the by-election yesterday. This combined with the pro-Leave MP, Stephen Phillips, resigning because he was so disgusted by the Conservatives' hard brexit posturing, should rattle the government's cage. Unfortunately, if they were watching QT last night, they probably feel that there are enough people who want Leave in any form that they care to serve it, that they don't have to worry (I was really disappointed by Andrew Johnson and Laurie Penney, they seemed quite cowed by the audience, the Remain arguments weren't articulated particularly well).

HyacinthFuckit · 02/12/2016 08:32

Sigh. Nobody said every single Tory Remain voter would or did prioritise their Remain leanings Mango. That's a strawman you've invented, presumably to try and detract from what is a very significant by election result. However, enough of them did, and when there was a 23k majority to start with, that's a lot of people who cared less about being Tory than being Remain. Like it or not.

lalalonglegs · 02/12/2016 08:33

Oops, I mean Alan Johnson.

merrymouse · 02/12/2016 08:35

mobile.twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/804580293227278336

There should be some deer in this gif.

MangoMoon · 02/12/2016 08:36

Sigh.
Hyacinth, you created the straw man, not me.

MangoMoon · 02/12/2016 08:38

Regardless, wrt Tim Farron I think he played a blinder.

I actually quite like him tbh, and he read the mood in Richmond exactly right - Zac Goldsmith was far too caught up in his own vanity to see the obvious.

Whilst I am a staunch Leaver, I am a big fan of Tim Farron tbh.

HyacinthFuckit · 02/12/2016 08:41

No Mango, I didn't. It was entirely, 100% you. But i shall be charitable and assume you made your extremely silly argument out of mischief rather than ignorance.

What's the Tory parliamentary majority now, anyone? Phone pissing about so can't look it up.

libertydoddle · 02/12/2016 08:43

Well done to the LD campaign!! Very pleased with this result.

twofingerstoGideon · 02/12/2016 08:46

David Davis's announcement yesterday about paying to stay in the single market is headline news in the Times, FT, Metro, and i.
Guess what the headlines are in the Mail and the Express?
"Migrant Numbers Hit New Records" (DM) and "Why We Must Leave the EU: Record Surge in Migrants"
link
Anyone would think they were panicking.