Ok this is post will not be well received, but I'm going to spell this out as clearly and as honestly as I can.
Immigration is going to fall.
The reason.
The pound's value has fallen. We are now going to have labour shortages in certain areas. There are already signs of it being reported. This is going to get more apparent as the months go on, but it will be particularly obvious as we go into Christmas and when next Summer comes around.
Not to mention our recent superb work on international relations led by Ms Rudd and the Daily Mail which is having people doing as they are told and 'going back to where they come from'.
We will also have an exodus on our hands for talent as jobs move abroad together with some of our best talent (and bigger tax payers).
We do not need to Leave to reduce net migration through control set in law or treaties. And this will quickly become apparent enough.
This also means anyone on benefits is going to be in for a particularly nasty shock as there is even less sympathy for them and why aren't they working (which massively over simplifies some of the reasons and problems which face people who are in this situation).
Just watch, wait and see.
Immigration will slowly slip into the background as those figures drop in the eyes of politicians . Then what? Are those views that have popped up in the referendum debate and subsequent fall out going to disappear accordingly? Are the public and press going to see it the same way? Or will it just lay the ugliest of opinions bear for all to see?
It'll be interesting to see won't it?
In the eyes of politicians, then the issue becomes primarily about the economy. If the economy starts to head south, which it will, then what? Suddenly the Brexit debate shifts to the economy and if shifts to the economy then the argument changes. Simply because it HAS to. Because they have a responsibility to look after the public - which they can only do with money in their back pocket.
And support for Brexit is likely to shift with any direction the economy takes.
Especially if the squeeze on the NHS continues or gets worse in any way.
yougov.co.uk/news/2016/10/27/what-would-make-leave-voters-change-their-mind-abo/
Do look at the list of things which will make people change their minds about Brexit and the percentage points involved. Its interesting.
What if public opinion does shift? Shouldn't we follow the will of the people then? Or just continue with an historic will as of the on 23rd June 2016 which is now out of date and is not reflective of the current situation?
Since we are always moving forward and things are always changing, shouldn't we be pragmatic and shouldn't we be open to the idea that the will of the people is not a fixed thing, but a shape shifting thing that evolves over time?
Genuine questions by the way. We should consider this, especially in the context of how the vote was split and how close it was.
Why? Because the referendum was advisory (and was only advisory for this reason) and requires this sophisticated thinking as well as a single vote.
And this is why some Leave voters are really afraid. Because they know it will come out. Not because the merit of the many of the Leave arguments will hold up to the poking they need. But because they simply don't. They will fall apart bit by bit as parliamentary debate and scrutiny moves forward and other factors change.
This is why any Brexit we get is likely to be end up being economically led and immigration WILL come as a secondary thought.
The elephant in the room for a while has been the Great Cake debate which is not going away. Will we will have our cake and eat it? Or course we won't. We will control immigration and retain access to the Single Market? No we won't.
Its been stated outright that the EU will not allow this and we HAVE to accept free movement of people. There is no way around this.
Think this is a Remain POV?
peterjnorth.blogspot.co.uk/2016/11/the-brexit-fallout-is-all-part-of.html
This is a blog from a committed leaver. Not a single word about immigration. Why? Because like I say, immigration is about to drop down the agenda. Fast. Because we can not afford to keep it at the top with even the best will in the world.
The Great Unicorn of Cakeland got scragged, run over and reversed over repeatedly by the car crash called reality. The a50 ruling does one thing and one thing alone in this department. It does not stop Brexit. It just brought this moment of reality hitting the unicorn to a head quicker than perhaps it would have. Had May just been able to plough on in her own unchecked manner it might not be noticed until later down the road but it still would have happened. It is noticed now, purely because its a moment where the public who aren't as politically interested have had their heads turns and minds focused by the court's decision.
It leaves a lot of people bewildered because they think that democracy is just about voting. Its not. It never has been. Nor should it ever be, because the tyranny of majorities is the road to a civilisation of intolerance and fear when minorities are effectively persecuted and marginalised for not fitting in with the majority.
The problem is Brexit might mean Brexit but by the same token, the law is the law too. Both sit side by side and are not necessarily in contradiction or collision. Indeed, without law then Brexit breaks down too.
The best option for Brexit is an EEA type option which will include FoM and that's where the only possible consensus will be found and will be acceptable to the EU.
The alternative is utter chaos out of sheer stubbornness over an issue, which is largely about to disappear because circumstances have change and the goal posts have moved as a direct result of the referendum decision - even without the need for it to be followed through on.
Brexit NEEDS a pragmatic and flexible response because its a developing and changing situation. That's exactly what we are not getting from the government nor huge parts of the public and media.