Westministenders. Boris and co learn the basics - and limits - of British sovereignty and democracy.

[RedToothBrush]

There is a plan.

It is not a very good one, but May says she has a plan.

As May declared a revolution and set out her vision for a Britain ‘open’ for free trade and hard working people she managed to further drive in the wedge of division into a society which needed measured and sensitive handling.

Her speech was met, with much derision and horror both here and abroad. Even UKIP voices say the Conservatives went too far.

Brexit began to take shape. It appeared hard and fast. Without the consent of parliament. It was to be run by the executive alone. As the ex-Polish Foreign Minister points out, the shape of it decided because it was viewed as the ‘easiest’ option. Not the one in the best interests of the country. Leaving the EU has become indistinguishable to the Single Market. We are told by Mr Davis that there is no down side to this.

Then something else began to happen and the plan is beginning to not look so clever…

The pound plunged.

Mr Hammond, who has seemed to have resisted the urge to take the hallucinatory drugs being handed out in vast quantities around the Cabinet Table, came out saying that we must consider the economic reality of Brexit.

It was followed by a leaked paper that put the cost of Hard Brexit at between £38bn and £66bn a year. Our EU membership cost £8bn last year. Where are those NHS buses now?

The government response? Oh that was George. He just made it up for ‘Project Fear’. Or something to that effect.

The government on the one hand were saying how great Brexit will be, yet were not prepared to make the case in parliament. The Times editorial came out as categorically for the Single Market. Even the Sun on Sunday editorial spoke up for the Single Market (though was still in the land of cake wanting immigration control too).

David Davis took to the Commons to answer questions and was met with a chorus of rising alarm. Whilst he confirmed that the majority of EU citizens here do have their right to remain here as being their legal entitlement, it does not guarantee their rights under this. He echoed the language of the citizen of nowhere in May’s speech and, perhaps can be seen to make, the stark message that you should consider taking on British Citizenship.

Parliament has started to wake up to what is at stake. It is not just whether we stay in the EU or not, but Brexit presents a challenge to democratic processes and threatens to bypass the checks and balances to power that parliament is supposed to provide. It is a threat to our international reputation as a champion of liberal values and democratic stature. It is a threat to our economic security. It is a threat to our diplomatic relations, with the reckless comments and language coming from some. .

The stirrings of rebellion and a credible opposition come from a variety of quarters. From both leavers and remainers alike. From every party including the governments. Initially the government refused to give, so Labour announced an opposition debate on transparency of Brexit and it all started to fall apart. Faced with a vote they could not get enough support to win they made an apparent U-Turn and agreed to parliamentary scrutiny of the government’s position ahead of a50 within certain limits.

Keir Starmer, making the point that Human Rights Lawyers are not to be messed with, has written 170 questions, one for every day before the end of March when a50 is due to be triggered, for Davis to respond to.

However, the agreement to this debate on negotiations is none binding and there is no date for it as yet. The government must not be allowed to pay lip service to rebels. They must be held to this reversal.

Today’s opposition debate seems to suggest that the government definition of scrutiny is wheeling out David Davies and get him to waffle a lot and not say anything. This has gone down like a lead balloon. The government can not maintain this. Something will give. He has still refused to release a green or white paper which many expected.

May’s choice will be blunt. She either keeps pretending Santa is real and can deliver the pony whilst losing the house in the process or she owns up to the looming cold hard truth of reality.

May might be fully committed to taking us off the cliff top no matter what but she’s going to have to fight to get there.

In the best interests of the country the pressure must be kept up. There must be resistance to the ‘Little England’ mentality and orders by the Mail and the Express to silence those unpatriotic ‘agents of Brussels’ who are raising legitimate concerns that need to be considered as part of the process.

Its either this or we will have to rely on the proposed new Royal Yacht to send Kate off round the world begging for trade deals “to once again project the prestige of this nation across the globe” as Mr Gove says. Prestige we still had before the referendum was announced.

Tiggs, duck! I was accused by RTB of threatening her with violence when I alluded to the same possibility.

Also immigration control has become more than just an economic issue so public attitude also hinges on other factors

This is true. But it's hard to judge how important immigration really is to the wider public. The little research that has been done - for eg asking people to quantify how much income they would be prepared to sacrifice personally to reduce net migration - suggests that while many people are generally in favour of lower migration, they do not want to pay much of anything to achieve it. This suggests that, outside a very vocal minority and some tabloid headline writers, the immigration issue isn't quite so important as is made out, even to leave voters.

Bored. Your tone and phrasing is the problem. Don't try and twist it. Its a cheap swipe.

You said:
Red that is my point exactly, that Remain are creating a 'hard opposition', if I can put it like that, they are perceived as attempting to thwart the will of the majority and thus in danger of causing an uprising.

Tiggy suggested a hardening of public opinion.

Uprising = violence. Hardening of public opinion = stubborness

Right now, much of the reason by Remain (and its also Liberal Leavers, but that is conveniently forgotten in the interest of creating a nice little narrative about it being about stopping Brexit) are creating a 'hard opposition' as you call it, and the EU are taking a hard line is in direct response to the line that May has taken about Brexit.

Hers and Rudd's tone and comments about immigration and her remarks about the legal system and human rights lawyers have created a particular atmosphere. It is not being perceived as just being about Brexit but wider issues about democracy and social inclusion of minorities.

Of course we know who the media want to blame. No responsibility on the shoulders of May though.

May is looking very much like her approach is that she will not back down on anything - indeed she has now created a situation where if she does she will be regarded as weak by those very same sections of the public that are being whipped up into a frenzy about the EU and remainers being 'the enemy'.

The truth is probably that many remainers and the EU would prefer it if they didn't feel forced into a corner and having to fight for their future and that May was taking a more pragmatic and consensus building approach which would facilitate a smooth Brexit rather than stop it. They don't think they have much of choice given the options on the table.

Sometimes liberal values have to fought for. No-one worries that Remainers will form an uprising, the higher socio-demographic of the voters mean that violence is highly unlikely. But we do have to fight for democracy and tolerance nonetheless and to try to save the county from economic disaster.

The harder the Brexit, the more the damage, the tougher the fight.

And for Brexiteers who don't like confrontation - well they might start listening to the half of the country who oppose them.

www.alde.eu/nc/press/press-and-release-news/press-release/article/guy-verhofstadt-ceta-is-too-important-to-be-abandoned-now-47862/
Guy Verhofstadt CETA is too important to be abandoned now.

There is a last ditch effort to ensure CETA goes ahead. Verhofstadt is supportive of this. This might offer a bit of hope that there will be motivation to get a deal with the UK even if difficult.

www.ft.com/content/362a9dda-9540-11e6-a80e-bcd69f323a8b
How will Britain limit immigration from the EU?

Tens of Thousands?

www.irishtimes.com/opinion/world-view-eu-can-adapt-to-complexities-of-british-exit-1.2838500
EU can adapt

RTB The term uprising can be used in a much wider context than to mean a violent protest. It is your narrow viewpoint that is the problem here, not my choice of words; in fact it's a window into your entire approach.

Yes, we do have to fight for democracy.

The higher socio-demographic might mean that violence is unlikely, but a high number of younger people voted Remain, who may well take to the streets to protest. I think it's more likely that they will just vote with their feet and leave the country. So we will have squandered reasonable prosperity and tolerance, because weak Prime Ministers haven't the guts to stand up to a few Eurosceptics, and now have let their attitudes poison the whole country.

Brexit I don't think you can critique RTBs approach.

The context in which you used uprising was certainly in the context of violence.

Unsurprising comment from small who consistently shows certainty in her pedestrian fixed world view.

Peregrina Not forgetting that the younger constituency that was activated by the referendum and even more by the result is the portion of those eligible to vote that is growing whilst the older demographic in which the majority voted to leave (over the age of 46) will inevitably shrink and, more to the point, be less willing and /or able to rise up out of their chairs whether your context of uprising is violent revolt or just going on a march, in my experience the older portion of the vote are not going to get involved in an uprising unless that context of uprising is expanded to include shouting loudly at the telly, and getting to the polling booth.

I remember seeing the profile of May when she got PM. One of the few perceived weaknesses was her lack of experience in dealing with the press and PR in general. I think this is now showing. She lacks the skill required to build consensus and she is very narrow in her approach because of it. Yet everyone else around her has been using the media for further their agenda (and pressure her) to great effect.

I'm going to set up a new thread in a minute as although this is only page 36 I'm AWOL until Monday and I think it'll hit the end of this one before I'm back.

Might as well fill up this one first though.

"Unsurprising comment from small who consistently shows certainty in her pedestrian fixed world view. "

Haha nice attempt at a rebuttal there.Why is my world view small?

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2762184-Westministenders-Boris-grabs-his-clown-suit-for-Halloween-whilst-we-wonder-if-parliament-survive-until-Bonfire-Night?watched=1

New thread in anticipation for the end of this one.

Continuing here, until this thread fills - TM's lack of ability to, for want of a better word, 'smooze', could be her undoing. Running a country is not like working hard to get good grades on an essay. She needs to be able to talk to people and communicate with them - a deal can be struck after an idea planted here and informal word there.

It reminds me of a 'how to get on in business' book, I read years ago, based on case studies, where one person was complaining that they did almost everything the boss did, and he was paid a lot more but he was on the phone all the time yakking about baseball and other dumb stuff (it was an American book). What else did he do? The killer thing was, 'he got funding', and far from yakking all the time, he was working his contacts, selling his firm. That sounds cynical, but TM needs to learn to sell the Country. She needs to sell the idea that the EU needs us as much as we need them, which she isn't doing. At the moment she is saying 'You will give us a good deal, because I say so.' Her reception at the dinner the other night should have given her a clue to this.

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB
New poll out later finds that 50% of REMAIN voters on June 23rd would support a STOP BREXIT party at an early general election

That's still only 24% of voters, but its interesting that the issue is so important to voters.

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB
.@JohnRentoul I understand that the poll has LAB in 3rd place behind the notional STOP BREXIT party & CON

I will be interested to see how this poll was worded or whether it included the LD as a separate party or whether it included Scotland and NI. That's significantly more they are polling and their position is the one that's closest to this. It also would depend of where those Remainers lived and how that affected constituencies.

Right I'm off (except for on my phone) until Monday.

I wonder how many reluctant remainers (and leavers for that matter) will become more passionate remainers as they see the true consequences start to be revealed and also feel themselves at odds with the prevailing small minded little England approach of May and co.

Lib dems are surely going to position themselves as the stop brexit party. I think they should also position themselves as 'party who supports the young'.

I think they should also position themselves as 'party who supports the young'.

Unfortunately, whilst I do understand their reasons for doing so, there will be a lot of young people who won't forgive them for the student fees issue. So, they've got a lot of PR to do there. Having said that, I was visited by a very young and charming LD campaigner shortly after the referendum and we had a very lively debate. So, they clearly can attract young people.

Peregrina Re: May's lack of grace / schmooze. I thought she looked drained and plain bewildered after the EU summit. Just like Johnson and Gove after the referendum. It must have dawned on her what she got herself into. She looked nothing like telling EU leaders where to stick it as The Express saw it.

I also started worrying about Hilary winning in the US. After such a bruising campaign with self-proclaimed Mr Brexit she would have no qualms prioritising the EU and ignoring the UK. Disclaimer: I am one of the few people who genuinely warm to Hilary.

Good point TheNorth. The UK already looks, to the rest of the world, as though it's fallen into Trumpism.

Not Trumpism.. Post Truth