'leavers' At last we have a date for A50. March 2017 it is then.

[surferjet]

Good to have a set date.

Monkeys, not "moneys" of course.
We don't like to talk about the UK economy right now.

GBPUSD = 1.245 and still falling/failing

Further, saying that I just posted to some studies, and then not providing any evidence to counter further proves my point. Questioning the accuracy of a large amount of academic work, but then stating surveys as evidence for the validity of policy is also poor.

I'm afraid I haven't got time to check the studies now (will later) but in fact I am pretty sure there was shown to be a negative effect on wages of the lowest 5-10% (not sure which). Not sure why we would discount effects on this group.

Will check later and come back.

Genuine question before I have to go? Do you believe in democracy Small ?

Yes, negative effect on wages in the lowest 5-10% when there is a 10 percentage point increase in immigrants working in their industry. The effect was a 1.8% fall in wages.

Now seeing as even in the largest years of immigration the increase in unskilled migrants working in low paid jobs was 7 percentage points in the years 2004 to 2006, which would mean that the fall in wages for the lowest paid in that year would be 1.3%, its hardly an enormous dip, and is compensated for in years that net migration falls in 2008 - 2010.

Do I believe in democracy?

Of course, but then I don't think that driving brexit through and declaring article 50 using Royal pergotive is democratic, especially as the legislation states that the referendum is advisorty. Neither do I think bringing in a bill that will allow changes to legislation without parliamentary consultation is democratic.

Nor that driving hard brexit, when the majority was so small is democratic.

Do I believe in democracy, of course.
I

BTW, did you know the value of the pound has just made our contributions to the EU higher?

The trouble is that fear of immigration is based on perception not reality. But the perceptions are 100% real - and very dangerous, as we've discovered. You can't counter these fears and beliefs simply by quoting studies and statistics, especially if people end up retreating into their own group because they feel foolish.

Before the referendum, I was at a seminar run by one of the London universities, comparing this ref with the last one, and one of the depressing conclusions was that the endless feeding of negative immigration stories - by politicians looking for externalities to blame, and by the right wing press - (culminating in one front page a week in the six months leading up to the ref vote!) - has embedded a culture in which many people - regardless of the make up of their local populations - routinely frame their concerns in terms of 'immigration' because they believe that immigration is the main cause of the problems that impact on their lives and those of their children - housing, low wages, zero hour contracts, etc.

I suppose we were defo the 'Metropolitan Liberal Elite' - we all knew what the statistical reality was and I suspect that like me, many participants that day would have struggled to get their heads around the idea of people ignoring hard data - but the signs were there - eg a senior union organiser told us - 'all I ever hear when I campaign is 'immigration, immigration, immigration - we're not getting through - we're talking to ourselves'.

And people like Gove gave them licence to feel entirely comfortable about the validity of beliefs regardless of evidential basis.

I don't know how you counter cultural norms once they have become so deeply embedded - it is a colossal task - perhaps even impossible.

Its frightening and depressing :(

At least folks will soon realise that their ills are not related to 'immigration' and once more they are mere pawns in Murdochs right wing policies.

I don't think they will RBeer. We're in a post-factual world now, and if there's one thing I've learned from these threads, it's that certain people are powerfully, overwhelmingly blind to anything that doesn't suit their internal worldview however bonkers it may be.

I wonder if one of the reasons why Scotland voted so overwhelmingly in favour of Remain (all 32 council areas) is because the Remain campaign up here was based on the positives of the EU , rather than the fearmongering down South, with its hatred of immigration and "horrible laws emanating from the EU".

After all, the Conservatives could hardly shout from the rooftops about all the workers' rights and environmental legislation which originated in the EU, given that the first thing they want to do is ditch them

That plus the fact that a large section of the population had become inured to scare tactics from the MSM following the Indyref so check out sources and form their own opinions.

And worry that the EU contributions that large swathes of Scotland enjoys relies on wouldn't be replaced?

I agree Tiggy : The Remain Campaign wasn't supposed to be- solely the Conservatives. But with the Labour Party conspicuous by its absence and the MSM baying for Europe's blood, led by Dacre, Desmond and Murdoch, there wasn't much of a positive message getting through. Hence the characterisation of the Remain Campaign in England as "Project Fear" - not one that could be used up here.

Keeponcreepingon - that doesn't explain Sunderland and Cornwall.

I do live in an area of high immigration, with new schools being built to meet increasing rolls. Only half of that is EU immigration, with large Polish and Roma communities, the remainder is non-EU although a large proportion of the local ethnically mixed community would no longer count as immigrants except to the racists as they are 2nd or even 3rd-- generation.

Weirdly and unexpectedly, it seems part of the government's argument is that A50 has already been triggered - by the referendum itself - wasn't expecting that - !

publiclawforeveryone.com/2016/10/09/on-whether-the-article-50-decision-has-already-been-taken/

I hope that our EU partners don't buy the line that A50 has been triggered. If so, we have already wasted the better part of 4 months negotiating time.

sleepwalking to disaster, with the whole world warning us, very loudly that the abyss is near and we can stop walking at any time, we can still avoid catastrophe. But "the people" are still being lied to by a government that know all the facts but want to save face, and "the people" still don't want to face reality.

The latest article ont he publiclawforeveryone site is great: "ON THE SIDELINING OF PARLIAMENT: THE BREXIT SECRETARY’S STATEMENT TO THE COMMONS". I'm a particular fan of:

" The House of Lords Constitution Committee issued a report in September on [these matters][the role of Parliament in the Brexit process]. It declined to take a position on the legal question whether the Government can trigger Article 50 without legislation, but reached the firm conclusion that Parliament should play a “central role”, not only in the triggering of the Brexit process, but in the “subsequent negotiation process” and “in approving or otherwise the final terms under which the UK leaves the EU”. That seems self-evidently correct. Indeed, the contrary view — that Parliament should not be closely involved in a process that will profoundly change the United Kingdom’s legal, constitutional and economic circumstances, bequeathing a legacy that will last for generations — is little short of absurd."

Absurd indeed. 'Frightening' my be closer to my particular feelings on the subject.