Project Fear were wrong all along?

[MrsPeterParker]

With all the newspapers and economic reports screaming there is no/ only positive impact of brexit so far, do you think the Remainers were all wrong and needlessly projecting doomsday scenarios ?

I voted Leave and I voted for my dc's future as they did too. I'm really happy with the outcome so far, Project Fear was doom mongering. Whatwouldrondo your haranging of Winchesterwoman and constant virtue signalling doesn't add to the debate and is the reason most Leave voters avoid these threads.

Or is it because their arguments don't hold water? With the exception of corcory who does usually present her argument in a way I can respect and who seems to have really considered her position on Brexit, the bulk of leavers either resort to patronising when they run out of things to say, eg. 'Oh Gideon you poor thing...', or cheerlead from the sides like surfer and lyra who pronounce themselves 'happy' with the outcome without advancing any meaningful argument.

Briefly, I believe the EU and the eurozone will tank hugely within two years. We don't want to be a part of that.

So not one trade agreement signed ( cant yet ) and everything is rosy. And people then are surprised why the brexiteers won.

If the EU and the Eurozone tank, we can't avoid being a part of that.

"Bloombergs: Banks throw in the towel on Clearing"

A figure was quoted on the "Free Trade agreement" thread saying that LCH Clearnet cleared $532.8 Trillion (all nominal, so not completely meaningful) and the Bloomberg article says $570 billion would be affected. That is about 0.1%. (oddly the use dollar stats, but nevermind).

Say the EU and the Eurozone do tank within two years.

On what basis does anyone suppose the UK won't tank as much or more, within the same timeframe or faster?

"the reason most Leave voters avoid these threads."
"Or is it because their arguments don't hold water? "

I think we are doing quite well in this one. I haven't (might have missed it) seen the "i" word yet so far.

I thought the LEAVE campaign folk did pretty well too. That bus with £350m a week for the NHS was just the start.

Uni Ranking.

It looks like Oxford has just became first in the world yesterday beating Caltech, Harvard, Cambridge.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-37419263

If Brexit hasn't had an effect, the catastrophic exchange rates a direct result of Brexit) (most certainly have. I have already lost business because if it

My DP has been made redundant as a direct result of withdrawal of eu funding.

So in this house, we are pretty sceptical still

Alfieisnoisy

Yes.. my FTSE100 related investments are doing well. Thank you.

"EU and the Eurozone tank, we can't avoid being a part of that."

Yes but the further you are from the epicenter, the smaller the damages will be.

We are still about 44% dependent on EU trade. If over the years that comes down to 33% (or less), we would be less affected if that bad thing happens.

Topsy have you seen my link from the UK statistics authority.

GettinTrimmer

I see. It basically saying quoting the £350m figure was incorrect.

I quite agree but most if not all knows (by now anyway) that it was a propaganda number. It probably shouldn't have been used.

The latest survey by Professor John Curtice confirms that there is no buyer remorse so I doubt the outcome would have been different if they have quoted a £50m a week number.

Brexit Bonus for NHS
So at least there is one politician saying that an attempt should be made to make good this promise.

You know I read that out of 1.3m nhs England staff, about 50k are migrants

The fullfact website is an accurate source fullfact.org/immigration/immigration-and-nhs-staff/. The first link will download a spreadsheet that cuts the NHS workforce by nationality.

2 seconds of analysis reveals that of the 1.23M staff, only 81% are registered as British which makes up to 19% (about 235K) registered as non-British, and by implication, probably migrants. Delving further, reveals 26% of doctors are registered as non-British, 22% ambulance workers and so forth. You can cut for the combined EU migrant composition easily enough if you wish.

But I think it's important to remember that the increasing unease of migrants in the UK is not confined to EU migrants. It's a general feeling that "the UK" does not appreciate or value any migrants. Combined with the highly publicised expression of many junior doctors that the UK doesn't value them irrespective of their country of origin (!), I'd suggest that the impact on NHS of a potential exodus staff should be taken rather more seriously than it has been so far.

We are still about 44% dependent on EU trade. If over the years that comes down to 33% (or less), we would be less affected if that bad thing happens.

Except there is no particular sign that we will be able to trade more outside Europe if we aren't in the EU.

Our closeness to the EU is largely to do with geographical proximity and political synergies. That will not change (assuming no environmental or political disasters!)

Meanwhile the EU 'tanking' would have worldwide effects that would be difficult to predict and certainly wouldn't just affect countries on the basis of how much they trade with the EU.

I should think wage depression has a lot to do with the number of migrants working in the NHS. The figures will adjust without difficulty. And I don't think it's a great idea to have medics who can't speak English, to be honest, and I don't see why we can't educate our own. You shouldn't be misled if you think this year's 21 year olds aren't well educated enough - that's largely down to the Blair years of education, and things are improving now. Same as I'm not worried about not having Romanian lorry drivers on the road, pushing down those wages too; or Estonian barristers, pushing down those wages too. I'm really not worried about that.

Not bothered about your general feelings thanks - I've got my own and they're much more positive.

Lol at Barristers. Baristas.

Interesting, Topsy. I'll have a look. No buyer remorse at this point in time, I know one friend who voted with her gut, she says she's separatist and thinks there are foreign trade opportunities doesn't regret it. We keep off the subject!

The Foreign Office - did you widen your point to 'migrants generally' because the number of EU migrants working in the NHS is much lower than the one you gave?

I'm not really seeing Mark Carney as the great saviour here. I know that's how he's sold himself but I'm not really buying it.

Hi Merry how interesting to be on the other side of the argument!

Rather at the claim that the £350 million wasn't a promise. I think you need to take a closer look at what was on the side of the official campaign bus. I'm pretty sure it wasn't "We don't send nearly as much as £350 million to the EU every week, but if we come out of the EU we might consider spending a bit more money from somewhere unspecified on the NHS".

And as for moaning about Project Fear from the Remain side, it's a bit rich when the Brexiteers were raving about 70 million Turks all coming straight over to the UK, not to mention that odious poster from UKIP that Farage gurned in front of.

Nice to see that Winchester is a typical Leaver. Making glib comments as she can't back up a single one of her facile claims.