Brexit-lite here we come

[Bearbehind]

Theresa May has today said the UK wants to maintain the closest possible economic ties with the EU and to guarantee the rights of EU citizens living in the EU.

Are any Leave voters actually happy with that?

The EU will be left about £7.6 billion short, its not a great sum in terms of their fiscal spending.

I think you are also forgetting that there are things that the EU could fund that the UK government wouldn't find politically expedient, or wouldn't fund at all.

You're also forgetting scientific projects that received funding for the EU because of the collaborative nature, we will miss out on this if the collaboration (as is happening already) is not going to happen and the projects that were funded will not be able to work.

No Bear, that's not good enough, we won't end up where we already are when it comes to trade deals. There are loads of countries that the EU don't have deals with that we will be able to deal with ourselves.

corcory, lindy did you actually believe what was written on those a buses?

Norway contribute nearly as much net per capita as we do to maintain free trade.

We are not just going to have a wad of cash to flash at every project that puts their hand up.

" There are loads of countries that the EU don't have deals with that we will be able to deal with ourselves."
5
Who currently (apart from the US who won't deal with us until Brexit is sorted) make up 25% of our entire trade. Great lets put in jepordy the 59% of our export trade for this.

I love the "there are loads of other countries thing" it takes into no account the economic development of these countries, the trading blocs that they are already in, or anything other than the optimistic rainbows and unicorns utopia viewed by the brexiteers.

OK, corcory, so how do you see the costs of the 3 huge factors I raised above being countered, even in this generations lifetime, by trade deals with the rest of the world.

Actually £7.6 billion is a bit amount to the EU particularly as the financial stress tests carried out last week have shown several EU banks to frankly be is a colossal mess. The financial stress tests used were not the more acurate method recommended by the UK but the EU's watered down version. The reason gor that is the more acurate results would have shown what a terrifying level of financial mass most of the EU is in. Thank goodness the UK can step away before we get pulled down too.

The CBI quotes our trade as 40% EU and 60% rest of the world. The EU is a shrinking economy, most other economies are growing. Which should we limit our trade deals to?

But Peregrina you don't actually know that that is going to happen do you.

We none of us know that we will still be alive tomorrow, so no one knows what will happen in future. But you asked for some specific instances of things which I said would happen, and I gave you a couple.
It's a fact that the pound immediately collapsed. It's a fact that people have been asked to remove their names from grant applications. It's a fact that a well respected EU commissioner, Jonathan Hill, had a key portfolio taken from him and then felt the need to resign. Whether it will all turn out well in the long run is neither here nor there. "In the long run we will all be dead."

I know what the bus said and it didn't say £350m would go on the NHS. I listened to the interviews of the leavers on the likes of the Andrew Marr show and understood what they meant.
I don't want a Norway type of agreement.

Correct the US can't have a trade deal with us until Brexit is sorted, nor can any other country. That is because the EU rules forbid it. That is one of the key points of many Brexit votes. It is too restrictive. A trade deal that forbids progressing trade with the rest of the world is not great at all really. We can't sign any new trade deals until we are out but we can be working on them so they are ready for as soon as we do leave.

We give £350 million a week to Brussels, lets fund our NHS instead" is pretty clear that they suggested that it would go on the NHS isn't.

Revisionism again from leavers.

The EU economy isn't shrinking. IMF

It has a smaller share of world output because of other areas' economic growth.

I listened to the interviews of the leavers on the likes of the Andrew Marr show and understood what they mean

What did they mean? What did they promise that hasn't already been dispelled?

smallfox has already covered the fact the leave campaign blatantly did say the £350m would go to the NHS.

"we can be working on them"

Whilst the most of our trade negotiators are in discussions with the EU?

Yeah right.

Take notice of just how many years it takes for trade deals to be negotiated. Even if we were in a position to start tomorrow, it could still easily be 10 or twenty years before a deal was ratified.

It takes the EU 10+ years.

It took Australia the same amount of time to arrange it's deal with China, the Swiss one was quicker, but we definitely don't want their terms.

It took China and Australia 10 years to negotiate a trade deal. Neither of them are the EU. What makes you think that it will be any quicker with us?

I think it will be quicker and I think it will give the UK a better future.

I think it will be quicker and I think it will give the UK a better future

Why though lindy? What is it that makes you 'think' it will be quicker?

I think it will be quicker and I think it will give the UK a better future.
Why do you think it will be quicker?

As far as I was concerned it said 'We give £350m a week to the EU.
Lets fund our NHS instead'. It didn't down right say lets give £350m a week to the NHS but I do think it was a daft thing to put on a bus. The amount we actually give net to the EU is big enough anyway that they really didn't need to use the gross figure. They said we could decide what our priorities were as to how to spend the monies ourselves rather than the EU doing it and that we would continue to fund the current agricultural, regional funds and grants to industries etc. and still have money left over to help improve the likes of the NHS.

Its another "I think" or an "I believe" statement by a leaver.

Sigh, so easy to dismiss.

"The amount we actually give net to the EU is big enough anyway that they really didn't need to use the gross figure"

Shame that all of the leave campaigners stuck to it when challenged.

The amount actually work out much smaller, in fact a 0.5 % negative change in GDP wipes it entirely from the tax take.

It was misleading, it was deliberately so, the nuances you are desperately trying to point out aren't obvious.

"They said we could decide what our priorities were as to how to spend the monies ourselves rather than the EU doing it and that we would continue to fund the current agricultural, regional funds and grants to industries etc. and still have money left over to help improve the likes of the NHS."

My above point utterly negates this, but further to it, it also forgets the fact that much of the funding outlined above may not occur. because it is not politically expedient for a national government to do so.

It also forgets the fact that we may still have to pay into the EU to get full access to the single market. Misleading if not mendacious.

See those straws, keep clutching at them.

I say 'I think it was a daft thing to put on a bus' and you, Smallfox say - 'another I think statement by a leaver' so easy to dismiss!!
What are you on, I just agreed that it was a daft thing to do!!