Brexit-lite here we come

[Bearbehind]

Theresa May has today said the UK wants to maintain the closest possible economic ties with the EU and to guarantee the rights of EU citizens living in the EU.

Are any Leave voters actually happy with that?

I have answered the point - the split between consumption and other taxes could change outside the EU, not inside.
VAT does not affect companies as they reclaim input and pay output. It only impacts at retail level.
The UK could have 0% or 50% VAT and only UK consumers would notice the difference. It would not impact EU trade at all.

You haven't addressed the point that if we wanted to have contuned close ties to the EU that we might have to agree to this level of harmonisation, such as the EEA states have to do in some ways.

smallfox we may, we may not - it is part of the negotiation and will change/develop over years.

Yay, another, maybe it will, maybe it won't answer

To be fair though Bear - we are all in this "maybe it will and maybe it won't" position now. It's just that those of us who voted Remain were pretty sure that this would happen, but were told we were scaremongering.

exactly peregrina, I appreciate nothing could ever be certain but I continue to be astounded that people still have absolutely no idea how this will turn out.

All the noises are looking like a very watered down exit and nothing much changing- makes it all worthwhile doesn't it?

Where does it say it's going to be a watered down exit Bear? What were you 'pretty sure would happen' Peregrina?
Why are you so 'astounded' Bear negotiations haven't even started yet how would any of us have any idea how things are going to be exactly in the end?

Where does it say it's going to be watered down?

I think you need to take your head out of the sand- very little has actually been said anyway but what has is looking like we'll be striving to just carry on as normal.

I'm not asking for 'exactly' anyway, just one thing that will definitely improve- sadly that's proved too much to ask.

But where are these 'noises' Bear? - quotes please. Where exactly does it say it is 'looking like we'll be striving to just carry on as normal' - where does it say this? You keep saying these things Bear but never come up with any evidence!!!!!!!

FFS corcory. Read the OP

What were we sure would happen:

The pound would lose value - this has happened already.
Research in Universities would be hit. UK researchers are already having their names removed from EU grant applications.
Some things we didn't predict but have happened: an explosion in racist incidents, very often directed at non-EU citizens.

But Bear we've already discussed TM's statement that you quoted and it is very questionable that she meant that we would have to accept Brexit Lite. So that is far from proven, come on give us some actual evidence! not just what you think was said!
But Peregrina we all knew the £ would go down, always does when there is uncertainty. As for university research, well it hasn't been hit yet. There is certainly apprehension about future grant applications and that there shouldn't be any UK ones - A bit week if that's all you can come up with though don't you think!!!
I certainly agree with you about the racist incidents - but not something any of us predicted.

corcory, it's clearly pointless arguing with you as we are going round in circles.

You only hear what you want to hear.

I might be wrong but at least I'm basing my concerns on something that has actually been said rather than some pipe dream I have of what the future 'might' look like.

TM is not looking for a 'hard line' exit from what has been said about close economic ties etc, how can you possibly spin that to it not being Brexit lite.

As for 'we always knew the £ would go down'- why was that ever worth choosing?

I don't think you can know much about the grant application process. I certainly don't think that our Reseach base taking a big hit in the next few years is 'a bit weak'. Yes, we may get funding from elsewhere, but at the moment I haven't seen the Brexiters tell me where. So why on earth turn our backs on a major source?

Yes, the pound goes up and down. When the Tories win a GE it usually goes up. If Brexit is so wonderful, why was there the sudden drop?

As for university research, well it hasn't been hit yet.

I take it you haven't looked at the research thread in this section.

But Peregrina you don't actually know that that is going to happen do you. There may well be funding from the UK government so it's not something that is definitely going to happen.

there may well be funding from the UK government is just not good enough though.

There 'may well' be a lot of things but there may not.

You haven't answered my question about why, if you knew the pound would plummet, you still thought voting leave was worth it?

"You haven't answered my question about why, if you knew the pound would plummet, you still thought voting leave was worth it?"

Same reasons as opposition to joining Euro (pound plummeted short term) or decisions around ERM.

The (entirely predictable and predicted) short term reaction wasn't the right time frame for factors relating to this decision. I suppose how to see it all comes down to how broad and far your horizons are.

Ditto how you imagine the future direction of the EU.

The pound falling after leaving the ERM was economically a very good thing. There are pros and cons of a weaker currency.

Bear Please tell me one good thing that would definitely improve if we stayed in - unfortunately no-one can, because we cannot predict the future. We have given you a large number of things we think will improve and you have dismissed them as either impossible or irrelevant.

I consider you wrong in most of this, but only time will tell.

carol for starters we wouldn't need to spend a fortune of renegotiating trade deals to, at best, end up where we are already- is that good enough for you?

A short term reduction in the value of the £ is hardly a reason for not voting leave Bear. I based my views on 'something that has actually been said' by the leave campaign. I didn't just make up my own wish list. As I have said to you already Bear TM's speech in Italy certainly didn't say anything about going for Brexit Lite. She is always going to say that she wants the closest possible economic ties. It certainly doesn't say anything about what you think it says.
Yes Bear we are going round in cycles, just like you have been doing to the leavers when you keep going on and on in so many threads about not getting any factual answers to your questions just as you can't!!

"We are now the proud owners of the worlds leading cautionary tale"

Where do people think EU funding comes from? Is there a magic pot of cash that is handed out or is it actually from taxpayers? As the uk were/are the second biggest contributor to these magic EU funds, without our contribution it may well be other countries that feel the pinch somewhat more than the uk.
I believe only 5 countries pay in more than they take out. Brexit should hopefully reduce that to 4. I think in time the EU will miss the uk funding more than the uk will miss the EU funding.

Exactly Lindy. The EU funding is OUR money but we pay in more that we get back so as far as that's concerned we will not have to pay all that extra money. Lots of the remain arguments have been about loosing EU funding but they don't actually know what might happen with our own funding policy in the future and that there might actually be more and better targeted funding in the future.

A short term reduction in the value of the £ is hardly a reason for not voting leave

In principle, I agree. But, given we are a net importer, the counter reasons for choosing this need to be pretty convincing.

So far we need Brexit to counter

• the devaluation of the pound
• the costs of negotiating the leave process
• the costs of the BOE propping up the economy my in the meantime.

That's a pretty big mountain to climb- it's not exactly unreasonable to hope there is a goal in sight. Sadly it's all on a wing and a prayer.

Unless you can actually tell us what the Leave campaign said will happen corcory?

But you won't as you and I have been on many threads and you've yet to divulge that.