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Brexit

A thread for Leave voters to list the positives of leaving the EU

342 replies

Bearbehind · 20/07/2016 12:41

Seeing as the previous thread is nearly full and no one on it has given us a single tangible positive that we can expect from leaving the EU as opposed to staying I thought I'd start a shiny new thread with a thousand opportunities.

OP posts:
smallfox2002 · 21/07/2016 22:22

Again Carol, thats one view, not the majority.

Also, the IMF and others will have all had to have changed predictions because, their predictions were made on the back of Cameron saying he would trigger article 50 immediately.

As this hasn't happened, and appears unlikely to happen until 2017 the economic predictions do need to be revised. You can't say "Remainers got it wrong" when the conditions they were predicting the conditions to arise in haven't happened yet.

The BoE survey only looks around 3 months ahead, where it does look ahead, and otherwise compares the last 3 months - 1 week out of 12 is therefore post the vote to leave - compared with the same 3 months of the previous year. It's hardly a strong indicator of post-Brexit sentiment. It also contrasts sharply with Deloitte's CFO Survey, dealing wholly with the outlook and conducted fully post-referendum, that showed a collapse in confidence among those holding the purse strings.

TaIkinPeace · 21/07/2016 22:25

Ah, corcory
You mean this link
dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/pages/trade-agreements.aspx
Follow it through ....
South Korea has free trade with Australia , but never imported anything anyway
Japan wants minerals but nothing else
and the China deal is free for China but shit for Aus

the EU looks better by the day

smallfox2002 · 21/07/2016 22:30

The Chinese "free trade" deal with Switzerland gives the Chinese instant access to Swiss markets, but the Swiss have to wait 15 years to access the Chinese.

UnderTheGreenwoodTree · 21/07/2016 22:31

Look, the world's economists, the world's media are predicting bad things for brexit. Just face up to it.

The only reason it hasn;t happened already is that Mark Carney had a plan and stabilised things somewhat. If we leave the single market - we'll see just how everything can fall off a cliff - do you not see that?

Did you see how the pound and the FTSE went on 24th June? It'll be worse. Just pray, pray, pray we stay in the single market. Otherwise we re fucked. We're back to the 1960's - culturally significant, not economically good. The kitchen sink dramas didn't come from nowhere.

fakenamefornow · 21/07/2016 22:33

Well that's one reason. Live animal transportation can be banned if we're outside the EU. How does that work though? Will it be animals can only travel a max number of miles from field to slaughter?

Bearbehind · 21/07/2016 22:38

Well that's one reason. Live animal transportation can be banned if we're outside the EU.

Dear God, is that the best we've got?

Aside from the fact our new found 'sovereignity' would need to sign up for this - is it really the case that the only things better off from leaving the EU are pigs, cows and sheep? Hmm

OP posts:
smallfox2002 · 21/07/2016 22:39

The Mark Carney point is a very good one, billions made available to banks, hints about dropping the interest rates etc.

fakenamefornow · 21/07/2016 22:40

Dear God, is that the best we've got?

I think so. At least it's something.

smallfox2002 · 21/07/2016 22:43

That or the £7bn "waste" about the signing off of accounts is about another.

Shame that it doesn't actually turn out to be that straight forward though, like everything they come up with.

TaIkinPeace · 21/07/2016 22:44

Must not snigger
LIve animal transport - Non issue extraordinaire

I worked in Dover Docks during the 87 strike - the one where animals died screaming on the trucks under my office window and the rules were changed.

If the UK ate veal again, there would be no need for live animal exports
all else is done fridged split and spined as its cheaper
EU YET AGAIN not the issue

Bearbehind · 21/07/2016 22:48

I've seen the 'waste' in the NHS.

Less than 5% 'waste' in the EU budget is not ideal but is acceptable to me.

What is UK's split of that in proportion to what Carney is using to prop up the UK economy right now?

OP posts:
TaIkinPeace · 21/07/2016 22:49

The economist recons that Brexit will cost as much as the NHS for the next 5 year - to what gain ?

Corcory · 21/07/2016 22:50

Talkin - The Australian free trade deal with China gives them tariff free or reduced tariff exports to China on over 70% of their goods and China is their biggest trading partner. Over 90% of their exports to China will be tariff free in the next 10 years. So I have no idea what you are talking about.

smallfox2002 · 21/07/2016 22:55

But as the Australians mainly export natural resources that would be a normal thing no?

The Chinese have also limited the access of products that could compete with domestic firms.

So all in all, no tax on commodities for Chinese firms, and the natural resource trap for Australia. You think that is a good deal?

UnderTheGreenwoodTree · 21/07/2016 22:55

I'm still in the pub, on the jukebox Who knows which particular Leave campaigner that's aimed at? All of them... Wine

TaIkinPeace · 21/07/2016 22:57

corcory
Yup, China wants Australia's mineral ores.
Admittedly that are utterly crap at actually obeying rules on imports

What would they want from the UK ?

Taking trade deals at face value is the fast way to get ripped off
How much of the business press do you read each week ?

Were you expecting what happened in Turkey ?
I and every other Economist Reader pretty much was

Bearbehind · 21/07/2016 23:05

The economist recons that Brexit will cost as much as the NHS for the next 5 year - to what gain ?

talkin I can easily believe that.

For the life of me I can't comprehend why renegotiating what, at best, we have got already is any way beneficial?

I've yet to see a leave argument that favourably compares the cost of

-Current EU membehips costs
-UK's share of bailouts (which we'd got future exemption from)
-Other EU 'waste'

With

Cost of

  • renegotiating deals
  • cost of tariffs
  • cost of 'subscription' to any EU deals
OP posts:
TaIkinPeace · 21/07/2016 23:08

bearbehind
let alone as the rather amazing Mark Beresford Smith of HSBC said yesterday (he's blind so everything he said was memorised)
the unraveling of what we are throwing away before we start to build the new

Maki79 · 21/07/2016 23:30

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ at the posters request.

UnderTheGreenwoodTree · 22/07/2016 00:16

So, Maki, what shall post up to make you listen to the fact that our economy is in the crapper unless we stay in the single market/ The fact that Mark Carney's poured millions (billions?) in to stabilise it? The fact that the pound is on the floor, and since we are a net importing country, that is bad for us - and prices of goods - food and clothes, electrical goods, will rise?

And what price peace in Europe - seen Putin rubbing his hands recently? That does not bode well. Did you think that when the remain camp talked of peace in Europe, that ww3 would break out the day after the vote, and because it hasn't - we're all safe now?

caroldecker · 22/07/2016 00:36

^Also, the IMF and others will have all had to have changed predictions because, their predictions were made on the back of Cameron saying he would trigger article 50 immediately.

As this hasn't happened, and appears unlikely to happen until 2017 the economic predictions do need to be revised. You can't say "Remainers got it wrong" when the conditions they were predicting the conditions to arise in haven't happened yet.

The BoE survey only looks around 3 months ahead, where it does look ahead, and otherwise compares the last 3 months - 1 week out of 12 is therefore post the vote to leave - compared with the same 3 months of the previous year. It's hardly a strong indicator of post-Brexit sentiment. It also contrasts sharply with Deloitte's CFO Survey, dealing wholly with the outlook and conducted fully post-referendum, that showed a collapse in confidence among those holding the purse strings.^

So disaster was going to happen at the time of the vote, many threats about immediate disaster and emergency budget of £30bn of cuts and tax rises.

Nothing happens despite remain desire and random postings on many threads. Many people saying contingency plans in place immediately activated, certain job losses and reduced investments.

Then uncertainty is the key issue, no plan, nobody decided exactly what they want.

Now, although uncertainty increased for 6 months due to delay in Article 50, it will all blow up soon.

Despite markets settling down, despite markets settling down, companies doing a no change scenario - it will all fall apart in the future. Brexit optimism of the future is winning in reality over the remain pessimism.

Corcory · 22/07/2016 00:48

Talkin - So you let us all know you know so much because you read the Economist - well done, but somehow you didn't know that much about free trade deals. I thought an Economist reader would be well up on these things. I'm just an ordinary stay at home mum with 2 disabled children so I just google things and try and find out. I don't always read the most recent stuff but hay ho.

Maki79 · 22/07/2016 01:38

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ at the posters request.

Corcory · 22/07/2016 01:54

No Maki, Just catching up with some me time!