Has Boris been outmanoevered? Will someone please tell me who is in charge?

[RedToothBrush]

Thread two from

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2670552-Has-Boris-been-outmanoeuvred?pg=1

obiwan I think the point is Corbyn is reaching people who already agree with him, and they merrily retweet each other, and have nice rallies and talk about the wonderful stuff they believe in. But, they are not making an impact on others, and they need to reach out to win a general election.

I heard some politico estimated that if there were a general election right now, Labour would get 75 seats.

Fair.

I didn't vote for any those tossers

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but the embargo on negotiations is on discussion of the terms of a possible deal for the UK before Article 50 is invoked. Discussions on Scotland remaining in the EU do not require Article 50 to be invoked, though clearly were the UK to decide not to invoke Art 50 and Scotland was to remain part of the UK, they would not be necessary.

That's how I understood him as well.

Swedishedith
A very great Boris trashing in the Beast, thank you. And your Scottish comment is thought provoking.

I would have thought that Scotland and NI could successfully claim that England (and unfortunately Wales) had voted to abandon Scotland and Northern Ireland when they voted to leave the EU and 'to go it alone'. No independence referendum would be necessary. Scotland could vote to ratify England's decision in order to keep the calm, while simply continuing within the EU. Then as the non belligerents Scotland and NI could 'tidy things up' as necessary in an amicable fashion with Brussels.

Guardian - Johnson won't be calling early GE, he thinks vote last week enough of mandate to start exit negotiations

May rumoured to also have said no GE if elected...

So May isn't the last bastion of hope she might have been.

Doesn't shock me really. Still a Tory careerist.

FT front page: Cameron blames Brexit defeat on EU failure to tackle immigration

Hmmm... Interesting.

Well, Cameron can't be seen to be blaming his poor campaign or the potential future prime minister.

Sounds like he is disengaging publicly from the EU - no going back.

I think looking at the timetable for how this is shaping up is very interesting. Not much has really been mentioned about this in the press as far as I can see.

The Select Committee have today said they don't recommend The Big Red Button until Spring 2017.

This is a major headache for the French. They are holding their Presidential Elections in April / May, with the first round on 23 April and the second round on 7 May.

A survey last year found that 67% of French people were currently against the EU. This is more Eurosceptism than the UK have ever polled. Frexit is a potentially big problem.

Much of this comes back to a 2005 French referendum on Europe which was ignored, and eventually resulted in the Lisbon Treaty (this was mentioned during the EP debate today and got cheered).

Here's a bit of background to that referendum and how it was ignored

In the 2014 EU elections, the National Front came first with a quarter of the vote and they are currently France's largest party in the European Parliament. This is very similar to the situation the UK has with UKIP.

HOWEVER, the NF have more influence in national politics than UKIP ever have. The NF did very well at the most recent regional elections in December. Le Pen (who is currently an MEP) is currently polling as being likely to be one of the two candidates to go through to the second round of the presidential race. At the moment, it looks likely to be Alain Juppe versus Le Pen. Presently the polls seem to be roughly predicting 70% (Juppe) to 30% (Le Pen) in that scenario. However some of the other scenarios are much closer - the latest polls in a Emmanuel Macron v Le Pen situation are 61% to 39% and in a Sarkosy v Le Pen situation are 56% to 44%.

So this is going to really matter.

If the Big Red Button isn't pressed by Spring 2017, then talks for leaving can't start until RIGHT before the election according to Juncker. If this is the case it begs the question of just how much of an example of we can be made before this point.

Unless the EU tries to cripple us as much as possible prior to negotiations taking place. Which economically will have an impact on them too seeing as we are still tied to them. The most obvious thing they could do would be to poach our industry and business over the next few months. Beyond that, it will be very difficult to do...

The German federal elections are scheduled for later in 2017 and will also be important but the big one is the French Presidential election.

I would suggest swatting up on French Politics....

Is this Cameron trying to poison the well a little bit more for Boris?

Juncker stated he had placed a ban on any negotiations (formal or informal - he specified that) before A50.

Any negotiations with Britain.

He'll have been talking though - everything he's saying is paving a way for negotiations (I hope! - wishful thinking)

Yes, but Scotland is still part of Britian.

Not sure what specifically Cameron is doing, but it's not likely to help in relations with the EU.

Yes it's Cameron saying to Johnson, go on then, do something about immigration.

Place marking

Telegraph going with how wonderful Johnson is:
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/28/back-boris-and-our-team-of-radical-reformers-will-secure-britain/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

RedTB Thank you, that's interesting and I follow bugger all about French/European politics so it's all going to be a wake up call for me.
I do wonder given the way Eu budgets work (annual year?) whether there will be immense pressure to make it 1/1/19 for out, to make it administratively easier....

Did u see Farage say, probably his last EU meeting and he's winding down? no doubt still happy drawing his salary and expenses tho, what with him being only one of them who's done a proper job in his life

We can't afford to wait that long.
Uncertainty will be very bad for us, bad for them as well, but more for us.
We should be able to use it in negotiations though, just because Junker days no negotiations with the EU does't mean we can't have talks with the different countries.
That was what we have embassies for.

Red, about French politics - the situation is really very different from the UK and UKIP. The FN is xenophobic but the main thrust of its intolerance has traditionally been against north african and muslim immigration. Leaving the EU has never been part of its manifesto (although leaving the euro is), only to hold a referendum. Even now the party is split between the old guard (Marine) who is a eurosceptic, and the young guard (Marion Maréchal Le Pen) who is much more pro-EU. The EU is not its natural enemy, it is mostly being opportunistic and hoping it can get some political capital out of Brexit.

I don't know what the 67% statistic you quoted is referring to exactly, but France certainly doesn't have 67% people in favour of leaving the EU - all the polls are saying around 53% in favour of organising a referendum, but only 33% would actually vote to leave.

So, there's hope that France actually has some decent room for maneuvering here.

obiwan I think the point is Corbyn is reaching people who already agree with him, and they merrily retweet each other, and have nice rallies and talk about the wonderful stuff they believe in. But, they are not making an impact on others, and they need to reach out to win a general election.

Exactly this. You need the social media mobilisation and the old fashioned stuff.

About Juncker instructing EU officials not to hold formal or informal talks with the UK...

Basically they can do what they want, if they think it's in their interest. If they want to have a chat with Sturgeon, what is the UK going to do? Go complain to Merkel that Juncker contradicted his own rule?

Cameron: EU leaders 'very sad that we have have chosen to leave'
Posted at
22:33 BBC live feed
David Cameron is holding a press conference following his meeting with other EU leaders in Brussels.

He says this will be his last European Council summit. He says while such meetings are "long and frustrating and difficult", they bring together nations who were "not so long ago in conflict".

The PM says other EU leaders respect the UK referendum result but "are very sad that we have have chosen to leave this institution".

Mr Cameron adds that, "until Britain leaves it is a full paying member of this institution" and that triggering article 50 soon "was not the mood of the meeting".

Yes, but Scotland is still part of Britian.

and a Sovereign country.

Jassy
I understand what you're saying but I've been waiting for some clear and objective evidence of JC not connecting with electorate (rather than being told it as fact by newspapers) ... For example the by elections and the Mayoral elections Bristol/London. U can argue referendum either way (I.e. Labour voters generally high percentage for remain, or that end of the day he lost)
So ambiguous for me..