Has Boris been outmanoevered? Will someone please tell me who is in charge?

[RedToothBrush]

Thread two from

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2670552-Has-Boris-been-outmanoeuvred?pg=1

There's been some talk of a GE to resolve this, with a better/more clear/confirmed mandate than the referendum. While that is superficially attractive, the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011 is an obstacle. It provides (in effect) that there can be no GE before 2020 unless either (I) there is a parliamentary vote of no confidence in the Government or (ii) two thirds of MPs vote in favour.

While two thirds might vote in favour I wouldn't bet on it, and I am sure there would be a lot of politicking around it. It could be why Hunt has proposed a second referendum - which I agree s a crap idea, but is practicably more plausible than a GE. Without a GE, what politician is going to claim a mandate for carrying on as we are? The EU don't want to wait, and, as has been noted, could expel us under Art 7 if we don't behave correctly (which could include not responding to democratic wishes). I personally don't think they would, but it adds another layer of complexity to a horribly complex position.

Unbelievable that no UK political faction had thought through and planned for the practical consequences of a Brexit vote!

Odious as he is, Boris may be the man for the PM job because he has populist appeal and just might bring off a looong delay to a GE, or persuade people his crappy EU deal is better than anyone else's identical crappy EU deal.

Thinking about it, why does Johnson need Lynton Crosby for an INTERNAL election?

Plot thickens?

Hurry up Labour, you have other things to think of...

Ah, God. It's not a coincidence that this has all crashed to the floor when Juncker (tin-eared knob) is at the head of the Commission, Cameron (never paid a moment's attention to Europe unless it was giving him trouble at home and is at best a soft sceptic) was at the head of the UK and we, in our wisdom, kept electing gigantic posturing idiots to represent us in the EP. We're clearly not alone in that but ours don't even seem to see the point of soft alliances, even if they didn't like the actual structures and therefore refused to take part in any of them except the 'drawing a salary' ones.

I can't see why the other members would lift a finger for us tbh.

Hmmm Corbyn appears to have run out of Scottish MPs to appoint for the position of shadow secretary of state for Scotland.

😂😂😂

Glados - I'm more cross than ever about the stuoid fixed term parliament act.

I thought parliament was sovereign?

Maybe we should "take back control".

Ridiculous to be in the middle of a constitutional crisis and have no way to exercise our democratic right to choose our representatives.

RedToothBrush that was a great piece of live blogging, thank you so much for that.

Anyone else still veering wildly between ¨we won´t leave, it´ll be fine¨ and ¨oh shit, we´re fucked¨ [sad}

I'm more cross than ever about the stuoid fixed term parliament act.

At the time it seemed a really good idea. It still is.

If we don't have a GE, it won't be anything to do with the FTPA, and everything to do with MPs who don't want a GE.

I'm starting to veer towards, we've fucked everything up, so might as well make the most of this potentially radical change to the way our country is run.

That means we need to make sure this is notbthe Tory Brexit Johnson and chums have been wanking over between cricket matches.

Not quite, Im veering between we'll def have single market at least, to what the fuck are we going to do without the single market, what are they thinking?

I've given up on the not going to happen angle, all the talk from anyone iwith any real say is that it's happening.

At the time it seemed like a shit idea, and it still does.

Fixed terms are a nightmare in the US and they make far more sense there.

Anyone else still veering wildly between ¨we won´t leave, it´ll be fine¨ and ¨oh shit, we´re fucked¨

Somewhere in there, is the possibility that the EU could implode, thus negating the question "should the UK leave the EU" (or rendering it hypothetical).

However, we are dealing with an assemblage of countries who have - collectively - endured the yoke of Nazism, Fascism, Communism, the Berlin airlift, foreign invasion, civil war and the spectre of the next world war being fought over their land.

We may be surprised by the tenacity these lily-livered foreigners can display.

what the fuck are we going to do without the single market

Trade on WTO terms completely freed from EU regulations?

There's an online petition doing the rounds to ensure that Farage is involved in the Brussels negotiations. I think after today's statesmanlike performance we can all see what an asset he'd be to securing the UK's new future........

At the time it seemed like a shit idea, and it still does.

Except every party has played it to unfair advantage ... maybe fixed term wasn't the best idea. But the timing of a GE should not be the preserve of a single party politician.

Fixed terms are a nightmare in the US and they make far more sense there.

And yet, the US continues ....

And yet, the US continues ...

If poltical gridlock is your aim, the yes I suppose it does. 😂

If we didn't have fixed term, I think there is a strong chance the government would have collapsed in the past week.

I don't think that would have been a good thing somehow.

The ftpa doesn't mean an option for an early GE isn't there. It just limits the circumstances under which that can happen.

For however much we've been shouting WHERE'S GEORGE and WTF CORBYN we still do have a stable government. Of sorts.

Which is better than the alternative.

Oh good God.

That petition might just send me over the edge. 😱

Trade on WTO terms completely freed from EU regulations?

If Britain wants to continue trading with the EU, surely it'll have to comply with most EU regulations anyway?

I'm no specialist, but it is my understanding that the WTO terms are not desirable, and that Britain would need to start getting trade agreements with everyone. Which is very time- and energy-consuming, and really not very straightforward - everyone wants to sell to Britain, but they're much less keen to have British products coming in. Surely it would be a disaster for British agriculture, which would get sacrificed in exchange for Britain exporting its services? And generally speaking Britain wouldn't have the weight of the EU's giant market of consumers behind it, and everyone would know it's in a big hurry, so its negotiating position would not be the strongest.

We don't have a prime minister, and we're doing OK.

Governments "collapse" all the time in parliamentary systems.

Then electorates get to vote in new ones.

We don't have a prime minister

(PANTO) Oh yes we do.

and we're doing OK.

Governments "collapse" all the time in parliamentary systems.

reminded me of Monty Python ...

"Oh Mother don't be so sentimental. Things explode every day."

If Britain wants to continue trading with the EU, surely it'll have to comply with most EU regulations anyway?

Only if it wants free trade.

WTO tariffs are not particularly high and the UK and EU are both members, so those tariffs will be the default until a deal.is done.

When has it ever looked like both main parties would be running leadership campaigns at the same time?

Doit

David Cameron, remember him? He is the Prime Minister

Collapse wasn't my word.

I don't think we would be any worse off than we are now if the current government had been forced to call a GE.

It would be no more a collapse than the "collapse" of the PM.

He has resigned, he's a lame duck, but he's fulfilling his functions until he is replaced.

Just like what happens when governments in the UK "collapse".

Everything carries on pretty much as usual until the next election.

"WTO tariffs are not particularly high"

They don't cover services. Our economy is dominated by financial services, and they benefit from passporting rules within the single market, allowing them to sell services across the EU from the UK. If we leave the single market the City is finished, and our economy will collapse. There is no other industry of a similar magnitude to replace it, and any readjustment will be brutal. Boris, Gove etc. are perfectly aware of this, which is why they are trying to adjust expectations on joining the single market.