So Leavers what happens Friday if you win? What's the plan Stan?

[Showmethewaytogohome]

Hello...My name is Showme..and I am a remainer

But I am also pragmatic, and a planner. My concern is the Leave campaign has no Plan. At all. Nadda

For me with objectives you have assumption oh and plans. I see an awful lot of we will be x better off, there will be x less of blah blah. But how?

So they win. And on Friday what? Day zero?

Nobody's called you stupid or thick, despite your numerous typos :)

It'll take much longer than 2 years to sort out all the various trade agreements that would replace the EU.

Meanwhile, it isn't a question of having a referendum and then having a bit of a think about what we want to do next, either for a couple of years or until the end of this government. Businesses, governments and markets will react to the outcome on Friday, and prolonged uncertainty would just mean prolonged chaos.

At the moment, of the 40-50% of the UK who want to leave, it really isn't clear where voters stand on the spectrum that runs from staying a member of the single market like Norway to complete isolation, or given the confusing message of the leave campaign leaflets, (Stop Turkey! Be like Switzerland!) whether it has been made sufficiently clear that this choice will have to be made.

Whats So sorry about that - but I take it you can understand me? That's good then

And yes I have been called thick...which is fine....cos I know I'm not. But the tone and level of remarks like that are not actually fine and that is why I called it out.

I'm just asking for a rational explanation of what is next. How are these objectives achieved. And still nadda

Merry exactly. Ignoring my own thoughts about remaining I am risk adverse by nature. No one understands the impacts and we have no idea to get to the objectives that have been cited or whether they are even possible

What does a renegotiation actually means - what would we be negotiate to? That video makes it clear that Europe could put conditions on any agreements that would mean we are in the same position re the headline catchers of immigration anyway. So outside the power block but having similar conditions

SO what is the point? And who has agreed what we want? If the referendum has no binding objectives apart from 'Remain' or 'Leave' and all other details are sorted after then how can the Leave campaign claim the objectives they have?

On the Today programme this morning a "major german industrialist" - sorry I do not know his name - has made it clear that there could not be trade barriers between Germany and the UK if we leave. Too many jobs would be at stake.

I have an export business and most of my customers are in the EU. For lots of reasons, I am hoping (but not expecting) that we vote leave. Business people are sensible. We will go on trading with the EU whatever happens tomorrow. It is commonsense.

If you are risk adverse, then you may not like the fact that the detail cannot all be spelt out yet, but you can rest assured that new trading arrangements will happen swiftly and sensibly if we leave. The German manufacturers will make sure of that.

Milly and you know this how?

I'm not talking about details in the minutia. There is literally a blank piece of paper. And a trading block that we have just divorced. Almost all major businesses in this country want to remain. There must be a reason - and yes they are sensible

How can the objectives be achieved if there was never a plan to get there?

On the Today programme this morning a "major german industrialist" - sorry I do not know his name - has made it clear that there could not be trade barriers between Germany and the UK if we leave. Too many jobs would be at stake.

Germany would agree to exactly the same terms that the UK has today - including free movement of people.

Whatever the vote tomorrow, we will go on trading with the EU, because we don't have any choice. The question is on what terms. They could be the same, or worse, but the idea that they would be better is fantasy.

This is something Leave have utterly failed to address. They have NO PLAN. If Leave win Friday could be a very dramatic day, and the start of (at least) two very difficult years economically and politically. No one seems to have given any thought to what happens next.

And that itself is a massive risk for ordinary people.

There is no second referendum. Thursday is it, no second chance.

Given that Cameron wants to remain even if 'leave' win does anyone else think that they will either ignore/'recount'/re vote until he gets the answer he wants?

You evidently don't understand this MrsBlackthorn...

The Leave campaign is not offering a manifesto, it is up to the government to provide the plan.

That they should have done to the best of their ability is a given I think considering they have decided to ask the country which way to go.

That they haven't for fear of the numbers proving Brexit to be an excellent choice is gross negligence on their part.

This is the governments fault for all number of reasons.

My concern is the Leave campaign has no Plan.

The EU certainly has its own plans, and I don't like them. They seem extremely inflexible, outdated and resistant to reform.

If we leave the EU, change won't happen overnight. Over the next few years, Britain will become what we make it, and it's fantastic that we can be as adaptable as we wish. If something isn't working, we can change it as we go along. I think an open mind, and standing on our own two feet instead of putting Nanny EU in charge, is a good thing.

Spin

I think MrsBlackthorn is actually logical. To say Leave is not offering a manifesto and that means a plan is not needed is ducking the issue

I have seen statements and objectives with no plan of how to get to them. And when this is challenged it is just shouted down with 'you don't understand'

I do understand. I understand that there is no plan. The current leaders of the government want to Remain- they haven't got a plan. Why should they? The objectives the Leave campaign have appear to have no basis of how they can be achieved - it's just Leave....and we will sort it out later (hopefully)

There is no plan, and there are a number of practical and constitutional difficulties with implementing a brexit, some of which are discussed here (have already posted this link elsewhere, but it's very relevant here):

ukconstitutionallaw.org/2016/06/22/alan-renwick-the-road-to-brexit/

Will brexit turn out to be like the Tory promise to repeal the Human Rights Act within the first 100 days of a new parliament? All words, no plan, and the whole thing bogged down probably for years in legal and constitutional complications.

Marble well at least someone has a plan even if it's 'just' the EU. We don't

it is up to the government to provide the plan

In case you hadn't noticed, there are a number of government ministers in the leave campaign. They are the government.

Why not ask the Daily Mail? Every time I look at its headlines it is very sure what the British people should do. When I read the TimesI at least encounter two points of view.

As for Boris renegotiating anything ...well I hope the EU converse in Greek phrases and lots of arh, arh,arh accompanied by hair messing actions.

The Leave campaign is not offering a manifesto, it is up to the government to provide the plan.

I understand this all too well. It's simply irresponsible to urge people to vote for something with such enormous consequences with absolutely no plan or even proposals for what will happen next.

This isn't about politics - there are real people's livelihoods, pensions and lives on the line here. And no one from Leave is able to say what will happen next - still less how the situation can be managed to prevent the worst real-world consequences from coming to fruition.

How do I know that we will prosper if we leave? I know from running an export business for years and years and weathering lots of changes along the way. In my experience, change is mostly a positive thing.

Plus - as you are no doubt very bored of hearing by now – Germany sells a lot more to us than we sell to them. They will not put barriers in the way of their sales.

It’s true that lots of big corporations want to remain. They like the cheap labour and the fact that they can lobby the EU to get laws and regulations changed in their favour (see VW and the poisonous diesel scandal).

However, a high proportion of small to medium businesses want to leave. And they really are the backbone of the British economy. They employ more people. SMEs accounted for 99.9% of all private sector businesses at the start of 2015. Total employment in SMEs was 15.6 million; 60% of all private sector employment in the UK. And unlike the big corporations – they usually pay their taxes.

"In case you hadn't noticed, there are a number of government ministers in the leave campaign. They are the government."

Explicitly not.

Indeed Cameron forbade those same ministers from using the civil service to formulate a proper economic plan. The civil service itself was forbidden from even discussing Brexit lest it help the leave campaign.

The responsibility is the governments, not that of individual ministers with the courage to speak out.

Milly people's opinions and beliefs of what will happen if we leave is fine. I'm not talking about trade wars or scaremongering that has been used by both campaigns

I'm asking if the objectives that unpin the Leave campaign and arguments are achievable if there has been no planning put in place of how to achieve them.

Spin So they haven't even used the very resources that are in the civil service that have expertise and skills to draft objectives and plans. But there are other experts out there - so why no plan?

Again - not reassuring I'm afraid

Show do you really prefer any plan to no plan? "No fixed plan yet" (but plenty of ideas) translates to the freedom for our very capable country to consider and choose what we do next, as circumstances arise and adapting as we go. I'm quite shocked that so many people are frightened by this and would rather be spoon fed and cling to the EU's apron strings. What do they do when they're asked to come up with something from scratch at work?

I for one have confidence in our people that there's quite enough ingenuity, energy, hard work, commitment, intelligence, ability and creativity in the UK for us to make our own decisions. If we leave the EU it will be a huge weight off our country.

there are real people's livelihoods, pensions and lives on the line here.

Yes, including those of the 50 per cent of those voting who would like to leave the EU. Brexiters are by no means any wealthier than the remainers. We are real people too.

Democracy is on the line.

Milly your data seems to be incorrect with the CBI saying that the majority of small to medium size businesses want to remain, even the BCC has a majority of businesses saying they would prefer to remain, albeit a smaller one.

Your use of the 99.99% is correct though, but you fail to point out that 76% of these businesses don't employ anyone else other than the owner so the vast majority of these businesses are extremely small sole traders, some of course will not be full time enterprises either.

I'm tired of this argument being cast as big vs little, the CBI and the BCC have said that the preference of a majority of their members is to remain, and they represent SMEs.

Winter

Yes any plan would give a view to how much thought and preparation had been put into what will happen. Then from that plan discussions could have been had. It all feels a bit of a 'wing and a prayer'

I'm not sure democracy is on the line - but that is not what I am asking. I'm asking how can the objectives of the Leave campaign be achieved when there is little or no evidence that they looked at the practicalities of achieving them through establishing a plan (even a back of fag packet job)

"And unlike the big corporations – they usually pay their taxes."

Yes but most are not large enough to buy politicians or political parties as mouthpieces.