So Leavers what happens Friday if you win? What's the plan Stan?

[Showmethewaytogohome]

Hello...My name is Showme..and I am a remainer

But I am also pragmatic, and a planner. My concern is the Leave campaign has no Plan. At all. Nadda

For me with objectives you have assumption oh and plans. I see an awful lot of we will be x better off, there will be x less of blah blah. But how?

So they win. And on Friday what? Day zero?

smallfox1980

"Most economic experts say that on a leave vote we'd have a recession. You can take further evidence for this from the behaviour of the markets when leave goes ahead in the polls."

Not all the experts then.

"We also know that its would take a long time to sort out our trade deals, and even the head of the WTO said that there would be no "quick deals". So yes we'd have a recession, and yes the recovery would be more diffciult due to uncertainty."

Leaving the EU wouldn't be quick either, so there may be time to source deals, also the UK doesn't exclusively deal with the EU.

"I can't guarantee no recession anyway,"

A very different statement to "leaving will put the country into a recession"

"but as the european economies are in recovery at the minute I'd hope that it wouldn't happen in the next 6 months where as if we leave I'm certain that we will."

So an opinion, based on some experts, but still an opinion.

However your very happy with 28 countries trying to agree on every little thing - which they don't because they all have different ideas, cultures, economies, levels of corruption and politics...hmm

We have to make agreements with the Europe on every little thing whether we are in or out of the EU. The EU is just a mechanism for making those agreements. However the nature of that agreement depends on what we want e.g. Do we we want to exchange more restrictions on trade for less immigration? The leave campaign doesn't appear to know.

Leaving the EU wouldn't be quick either, so there may be time to source deals, also the UK doesn't exclusively deal with the EU.

The time pressure doesn't come from the 2 year deadline. It comes from the need to trade with other countries and make plans.

Boney ok. The overwheling majority of independent economists say that we'd have a recession is that good enough for you?

The thing about trade deals is that they have to be negotiated individually, do you think we have enough experts in setting up international trade deals to deal with the EU one, the 50 other countries that the EU has trade deals with, as well as then dealing individually with others or through the WTO.

All in all its complex and takes a lot of time, there wouldn't be quick deals.

Oh and on the WTO, if you offer one country a preferential deal then you have to offer them all. Which is why the US, EU and lots of other trade blocs and countries look to do deals outside of the WTO.

How many economists have said that it will be fine? Even Micheal Gove has admitted that there is likelihood of a recession.

One question -why do people think the EU is undemocratic? It is a different system than the way the UK Govt is formed, but the Parliament has elected representatives for us all, and at the European Council we are represented by the very Govt we elect in the UK. Add in the many vetoes and opt-outs our nation has, and I'm struggling to see why this different system is any more undemocratic than our national Govt?

smallfox1980

You can trade with other countries without trade deals, the agreements do set the rules for commerce and would protect Britain and UK companies from disputes and arbitrary actions from other countries.

So it would be possible to trade and make deals later.

And with the recession we are back to "likelihood", I personally think that there is a high probability of a recession, but that doesn't mean that if leave wins there will be one. They have been known to be wrong before.

But the problem is Boney that we have had beneficial trade deals with these countries, meaning no tariffs or quotas or other regulatory restrictions on our goods. Outside of these current deals it is very likely that they would. For example we may not be able to trade services with other countries in the EU (like the Swiss can't) because access to markets is regulated.

Anything that puts our exporters at a disadvantage will negatively effect the economy, as would the absence of trade deals because domestic investment and FDI would be slowed or halted till it was discovered what our trade agreements would be.

So a fall in exports and a fall in investment, along with an decrease pound meaning inflation will definitely rise, and a very likely drop in house prices making consumers more cautious so we would see a fall in consumption too.

Now, you can say that economists have been wrong before, but looking at the behaviour of the stock market and the £ on the Forex when it looks like leave are going to win, we can see that it is almost definite that we would have a recession.

Smallfox if their economies were doing soo brilliantly they would have managed to reduce their deficits wouldn't they? This is the nth year that Belgium has been let off, there is yet another general strike tomorrow against austerity and the extension of the working week, and costs are going up all the time. Portugal and Spain are being given more time as per the article. I hadn't noticed that Spain's economy was doing so well, and as for Greece...

The nice warm feeling in your chest is probably heartburn from all the bile. Best get some Gaviscon.

I don't disagree, but then the risk is short term loses for long term gain.

The remain camp don't want to take the risk, the leave camp do.

It is all probable, possible, likelihood, could happen etc. the possibilities are endless.

"When one door closes, another opens; but we often look so long and so regretfully upon the closed door that we do not see the one which has opened for us." (Bell)

I do not know which camp is correct and I am not convinced that either is wrong.

Scary, I said they were in recovery I didn't say they were doing amazingly well, you disagreed and then linked to an article about deficits which are not the same thing. You can have large growth and still have fiscal deficits. Or are you changing the goal posts now?

Its not bile, I haven't been derogatory towards anyone, its just an opinion you disagree with.

If the Eurozone is growing this is good for our economy too.

The problem is boney that it isn't "short term" risk. We could have a decade of stagnation because of the uncertainties. Now You're right about in the very long term it could be more beneficial, but it is in no way clear how this could come about.

The possibilities are endless its true, but you can make judgements based on the information available or you can just decide based on gut feeling. I know which I prefer.

Its not bile, I haven't been derogatory towards anyone, its just an opinion you disagree with. An lot of your posts have been tending that way, even if quitting smoking is making you irritable. Try some gum, it will help with the need to smoke and the heartburn.

(I find knuckle draggers offensive btw, when applied to out voters, some of whom have voted out because they have worked at the EU and seen what it is like).

I've worked in Westminster and been to Brussels from there, I'm well aware of both gravy trains. Voting out won't stop it, in either place.

Oh and the second thing I'd say is that you can get reform by staying in.

I've voted in because I think that the economic turmoil that would come from an outvote would be a terrible thing for Britain and its people. I think the long years of uncertainty will lead to stagnation and seriously disrupt our children's futures.

I've voted in because I don't believe that immigration is to blame for the ills of the country but policy decisions by governments of both hues.

I voted in because I feel that the disenfranchised and the working class are being sold a pup by a group of politicians who will use the economic shock of an exit vote, I don't think that things will get better for them. I don't think that services will be improved because tax take will fall, I do think that the first "costly regulations" to be scrapped will be those related to employment, especially the employment of low paid workers.

I've voted in cause its best for my country.

And I really want a fag.

It's not about gravy trains, it's about the lack of democracy in Brussels; the failure to get anything done (herding cats was how my Latvian ambassador friend described her experience on the PSC); the waste; the lack of accountability; the gap between the governed and the governing; the failure to apply their own rules.

You may not think any of that matters; I do.

It's not about gravy trains, it's about the lack of democracy in Brussels; the failure to get anything done (herding cats was how my Latvian ambassador friend described her experience on the PSC); the waste; the lack of accountability; the gap between the governed and the governing; the failure to apply their own rules.

you could apply alot of that to UK politics. I don't think you'll ever get a perfect system.

I disagree with the entirety of your post. If there was the will to reform it would have happened by now. The EU isn't about reform, it is about punishment if you fail to stick to the script. Just look at Greece fgs, and tell me that you really think it is acceptable for the Greek people to go through what is happening to them and that this being done to them by fellow member states in the name of European solidarity is in any way acceptable? Even the IMF disagrees and argues that Greece needs debt forgiveness.

If you want to be part of an organisation that behaves like that, then that says an awful lot about you.

I voted leave because I thought it was best for my country, and I don't want my child's future destroyed when the EU implodes, as is inevitable. As AEP commented in the DT today - the EU is like a prison and held together by coercion.

Agreed Frank.

Sorry Scary, but I'm not going to agree with you on the democracy bit, especially as the vast majority of the major decisions are made in Westminster. On top of this major decisions in the EU have to be passed at council and parliament level.

you could apply alot of that to UK politics. I don't think you'll ever get a perfect system Does that mean we shouldn't try? I have no problem with a loose federation of trading states; I do have a problem with what the common market has morphed into. It is not necessary.

Really ? There is EU reform going on, and over the years it has changed dramatically or is it still the European Coal and Steel community?

I disagree with you fundamentally, I doubt the EU will implode because it is in the interest of all of the member states to stop it from doing so. The Greeks despite what has happened are keen to leave. I could really go into the economics of Greece but it is a great probability that it will get more debt haircuts. However it will need to show that it can make the payments it is left with. The most effective way it could do this is actually start collecting taxes effectively which is one of its biggest flaws.

Your prison analogy is hyperbole.

Change and reform aren't necessarily the same thing. The EU has changed as it has worked to carry out the ideology on which it set its course a long time ago.

No, it isn't the same as when it was the European Coal and Steel community, but that's because it has developed in the ways always intended, rather than having reformed its purpose and intentions.

It has reformed its purposes and intentions, and across Europe there is support for reforming it further. It will have to respond to the needs and wants of its member states.

'Your prison analogy is hyperbole.' Not my analogy - AEP in the Telegraph, and fairly accurate at that. Perhaps you should read the article.

Please don't pretend that the EP actually does anything meaningful, apart from vote through what they are told to:
''The European Parliament may approve or reject a legislative proposal, or propose amendments to it. The Council is not legally obliged to take account of Parliament's opinion but in line with the case-law of the Court of Justice, it must not take a decision without having received it.' They are nothing but a talking shop as they can be ignored.

I think you ignore at your peril, that what those who govern want, and what those who elect them want is fundamentally different. I don't know how old you are, but I can't remember the disconnect being worse than it is now. Something will give, and it won't be pretty.

It has reformed its purposes and intentions, and across Europe there is support for reforming it further. It will have to respond to the needs and wants of its member states. You just don't get it do you? Juncker said in 2015 "There can be no democratic choice against the European treaties.”

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/eu-referendum-too-many-part-time-europeans-are-diluting-an-ever-closer-union-claims-jean-claude-a7095966.html There is no desire to reform it, don't kid yourself.

I do get it. We are exempt from ever closer political union, an agreement protected by international law.

"think you ignore at your peril, that what those who govern want, and what those who elect them want is fundamentally different."

If we leave those that voted leave will feel this dramatically.

Question: Are you in Belgium permanently?