So Leavers what happens Friday if you win? What's the plan Stan?

[Showmethewaytogohome]

Hello...My name is Showme..and I am a remainer

But I am also pragmatic, and a planner. My concern is the Leave campaign has no Plan. At all. Nadda

For me with objectives you have assumption oh and plans. I see an awful lot of we will be x better off, there will be x less of blah blah. But how?

So they win. And on Friday what? Day zero?

HapydaysAreHere The Times came out on Saturday as pro-Remain.

Germany sells a lot more to us than we sell to them. They will not put barriers in the way of their sales.

Or, to put it another way, the UK depends on importing goods from Germany and the rest of the EU.

Germany will not want to restrict trade with the UK, but they will not agree to the UK having the advantages of the single market unless the UK makes a contribution towards the single market and allows free movement of people.

You cannot expect to leave a club and get a better deal as a non-member.

To be fair, you can't really expect the Leave Campaign to have a plan when they don't appear to have the foggiest idea of what they actually want.

Merry To be fair, you can't really expect the Leave Campaign to have a plan when they don't appear to have the foggiest idea of what they actually want

That is one of my concerns. Another is that emotions have been used to 'sell' unplanned and unthought out ideas that will impact our country for decades.

I have put a lot of thought into why I am voting remain and I can see the arguments for some Leave points. But that is all they are - arguments- emotive language that sways something visceral inside

Stripping that away I am not comfortable with stepping into the unknown with no plans or evidence of planning the 'hows' and 'what if's'

The "barriers" thing for Germany is again are statement backed up without fact.

Of course there may be trade barriers, but if there are tariffs it depends on the type of goods we buy from Germany and how demand changes if the price goes up. Its my feeling that in general that the demand for goods that we buy from Germany wouldn't be effected all that much by an increase in price. Of course there would be some fall but would it be enough for German businesses to put pressure on their government's to broker a deal which gives UK firms competitive advantage? Most probably not.

But small that's the point - it is an unknown. Everyone can have an opinion on what may or should happen. No one knows.

Everything would need to be negotiated and no one has looked at planning how this will happen and what is actually wanted

Well, there is a team at the treasury preparing the UK's strategy in event of a leave vote.

Its a point against leaving really that the demand for German goods won't really fall in the UK, this constant refrain of "they will want to sell us stuff too" is true, but it needs further scrutiny.

Some achievable goals for the near future:

Ending the supremacy of EU law
Prioritise spending of the money the EU would (after the rebate) otherwise keep or tell us how to spend. Better NHS funding rightly seems a very popular proposal
Regain our seat on the World Trade Organisation
Regaining control of our fishing waters
Equality for migrants from anywhere in the world, not automatic priority for EU migrants
Forging trade deals around the world
Nationalise the railways

Also, planning our future is also about avoiding plans that we don't like. Avoiding the negative is a positive move. E.g., planning not to be involved in:

A superstate
An EU army
A distant, undemocratic setup
A system where big business lobbyists are too powerful
An unreformable system
Propping up the euro
TTIP

I expect those in positions where they can make things happen will indeed have compiled proposals for post-Brexit and know how the "nuts and bolts" would be put together. Just because it's behind the scenes doesn't mean it's not happening. And the "plan" won't be presented as a fait accompli, the proposals will need to be approved first.

It's not like a general election where we can vote on a party manifesto. Many of those standing up for either side aren't in politics themselves, and may not be in a position to personally bring about what they've presented as the best future for Britain.

The remainers do not have solid plans. They can't guarantee that they can reform the EU in any meaningful way, that Cameron's so-called "deal" will be upheld, that any vetos will ever be used, that the EU won't destabilise, that we won't have to bail out the euro, or pay EU taxes, that we won't be required to take part in an EU army, become part of a superstate (not yet, but incentives could potentially bring about deals), that the EU won't take control of benefits, the minimum wage and pensions in a way we'd never choose, etc.

www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-wto-idUSKCN0YT1GY

WTO chief says renegotiating membership could take years or decades and would not be a simple job.

Some achievable goals for the near future

What do you call the "near future"?

Winter Goals are not plans. And no it its not like an election. It has been a bitter hate filled contest that has split our country and shown the worst of humanity on all sides

For me this is more than an election. It means more than that in that it could fundamental impact our financial and social well being as a nation for decades - and we are doing it without an alternative plan in place

Any major change requires plans to ensure the objectives of that change are met for all concerned. I have no confidence this will happen

Ofcourse there are plans in place if we remain - they would have been ratified by the EU and our governmental representatives. If it is plans to change the EU from within that is not an option on the ballot paper I'm afraid. And you won't manage it from the outside either

Of course there will be a plan. The civil service (Foreign Office) will have a plan for each outcome of the referendum. Just as all Govt Depts have plans for the various eventualities of a general election. Before parties get into office Manifestos may be vague notions of this and that... Then when they form a Govt our impartial civil service has to figure out how to get it done. Of course they look at, read and plan for the various scenarios at a high level.

However, the detail of exactly how and when what will happen won't be known until later, because that is down to elected ministers and the cabinet. In particular, the political consequences (eg potential leadership changes), and the impact of those are uncertain.

I agree little kind of compelling presenting of the detail of what the future might be like after a leave win has been set out, nor the timescales. I am worried, no matter what the result, about social cohesion and the demonisation of refugees and immigrants. We live in a multicultural and increasingly global world. We need to learn how to get along with fellow human beings and cope with change, including changes to local populations as a consequence of migration.

Forging trade deals around the world

OK, but that is going to take much longer than a couple of years - and within the EU would depend on free movement of people and a substantial contribution to the EU to keep the same advantages. In the meantime what kind of agreement do we use? Keep the EU agreements until something is worked out (and therefore keep paying and keep free movement of people?) Use WTO rules?

TTIP

Any deal with the US is going to involve agreeing to something very like TTIP, but without the strength of the EU countries that are far more resistant to TTIP - and many Brexit supporters are advocating more free trade (less regulation for foreign imports and services) anyway and would presumably be pro TTIP.

This is where the leave campaign needs to think through what they actually want - is it an absolute no to any free movement of people at any cost? Are they pro free trade?

Except, if the leave campaign win on a narrow majority, given the current variety of views within the campaign, is it likely that there will ever be a strong enough consensus to agree on which direction take within the UK, never mind with other counties?

Anyone on either side who tells you their "plan" at this stage has no guarantees. That's because despite saying "the leave campaign needs to think through what they actually want", (in which case so do the remain campaign), there will be no such groups as "the leave campaign" or "the remain campaign" from this Friday. Pro-remain and pro-leave people are of a variety of political persuasions and cannot act as a group after the referendum.

The remainers do not have solid plans. They can't guarantee that they can reform the EU in any meaningful way, that Cameron's so-called "deal" will be upheld, that any vetos will ever be used, that the EU won't destabilise, that we won't have to bail out the euro, or pay EU taxes, that we won't be required to take part in an EU army, become part of a superstate (not yet, but incentives could potentially bring about deals), that the EU won't take control of benefits, the minimum wage and pensions in a way we'd never choose, etc.

Parliament can pass the relevant legislation to leave the EU at any time. If the EU is suddenly taken over by power hungry pandas from space the UK can just say goodbye. The EU can't require the UK to do anything if the UK doesn't consent to give it that power, in or out.

winter So if there are no plans, how can you be sure that your wish list above can or will be achieved?

Note: none of the things you listed could be achieved in the "near future", unless you have a very broad interpretation of what constitutes the near future. Can you be more precise about what timescale you envisage?

I am not comfortable with stepping into the unknown with no plans or evidence of planning the 'hows' and 'what if's' The world changes around us all the time. It will change if we leave or remain.

PenguinsareAce has written a very sensible post above. Of course there will be a plan if we leave.

The remain campaign will keep existing agreed legislation and treaties and carry on as a member of the EU. How parliament negotiates with the EU going forward will depend on the make up of the UK parliament.

For example, the border between Northern Ireland and the ROI will be still be completely open.

On the other hand, the leave campaign hasn't really explained how immigration control in Ireland will affect decades of peace negotiations. That is just one of hundreds of treaties and deals that will have to be re-negotiated over the next years/decades.

It really isn't 6 of one and half a dozen of the other.

I love my DH but he is risk averse. When we bought our first flat for example. Or when I left my job to set up my business. "How do you know it will work out? What if this happens? What if that happens? How do you know prices won't fall? What will we do if interest rates go up? What if I lose my job? "

You can argue forever about what ifs and uncertainties.

The big question is this: Do you want issues such as trade and immigration to be decided by our elected government or do you want them be overruled on crucial issues by the unelected EU commission.

Op of course its only anecdotal evidence from chatting to different groups of people and randoms but no one thinks immigration would stop and no leaver I have met wants it too.

They simply want control over it. Once we can finally put a cap on numbers ( which will take time to sort) we can start to slowly recover as a country and get back to some sort of normality rather than this swamped madness always playing catch up. But its going to take years to recover.

Of course there will be a plan if we leave.

How can there be a plan if there is no clear idea of what is trying to be achieved?

I know that the Bank of England and the Civil Service will have made plans for a Brexit result on Friday. However, they can only go so far. How can anyone negotiate for anything if they have no clue what they actually want to negotiate for?

Id like to know remains plans too. The EU is volatile and totally un predictable.

and the stay and fight argument? what are they going to fight for if we stay?

we cannot control the biggest bug bear, immigration can we? we cant control our own borders?

other countries seem to bend the rules as and when they want but we dont. What does cameron and sadiq want to fight for?

More immigration? what?

If remain wins things will change too. Due to the economic shit storm and the thousands of migrants crossing boarders it's going to have to change. They've said they won't listen to far right governments even if democratically elected and that scares me. They shouldn't be allowed to ride rough shod over elected governments regardless of their political leaning.

none of the things you listed could be achieved in the "near future", unless you have a very broad interpretation of what constitutes the near future.

Some things could happen very quickly, others could take years while they are carefully considered, but that's a very small amount of time compared to being in the EU permanently.

Paradoxically each sides strongest point could be its weakest.
If Britain votes to leave and a post brexit government reshuffle takes place.
talks about our future relationships with the EU will take place probably on an informal level to begin with.
There is a deal to be made because it is noone's interest to have a trade war.We could join EFTA and have the same access to the single market as we have now and be able control our agriculture and fisheries policy plus not being subject to the ECJ. In return we would still pay in(perhaps
50- 70%)so taking into account payments to farmers there would be little saving overall. Leaving the EU is and never was a silver bullet in reducing immigration, balancing the social costs of immigration with the economic benefits it brings is an almost impossible act.
However you could make the important distinction between the free movement of people and free movement of workers, a position that Tom
Watson has tentatively advocated. In a Corbyn interview the other day he started talking about the free movement of workers before reverting to people in the later stages or the concept or an emergency brake could be offered. As long as both sides can claim some measure of success a deal can be done.
But nothing can be done until we have the courage to take the initial step
Denmark, Sweden and possibly Holland will join us and leave the others to pursue their federalist dream