What do you THINK the final result will be on Thursday? (As opposed to what you want to happen)

[LikeDylanInTheMovies]

I'm going Remain - 54% Leave 46% .

Sudden shortening in the odds on remain in the last 15 mins or so, and the pound has just rallied a bit against the dollar too.

I think its going to be very close. Similar to the polls this time. The market didn't suggest there was anything more to it as it was shaky until late afternoon before a late rally.

BUT there were a couple of things in the betting / when the exit polls hit the markets would start to show something that does seem to show its likely to go remain. But its by a whisker.

I've seen NOTHING today that suggests that Remain will get a large majority. And I've not seen any real fear that Leave will have it.

Turnout seems high in many but not all places.

My best bet: Remain between 50.5% and 52%

Then the problems start about that extended deadline and people turned away from polls...

We shall see.

I think it might have been you who linked to that article somewhere else on here LittleMiss?
It's a really good piece.

'Just been asked on tube by @BorisJohnson if I voted leave. I say no. He concedes He's lost anyway. Awkward #EUref'

twitter.com/lewisiwu

Interesting, squoosh

Looks like Farage has conceded defeat.

Then the problems start about that extended deadline and people turned away from polls...

I'm not so sure about the point of legal challenges, since the referendum is not legally binding anyway, but just a "consultation"?

I'm nowhere near reassured right now. No ballots have been counted, so we're all going 100% on educated guesses, and I'm just not convinced there's not some big factor people haven't missed that will shift it for Leave.

He has absolutely no idea. All that has done is give him the leading headline that he craves

Boris saying according to BBC, 'democracy has been served'.

Farage kind of conceding?

Gove caving?

Weird shit going on.

Friend who's been out canvassing in London today (for Remain) says there has been a very high turnout despite the weather and is confident Remain will carry the day - in London at least.

It'll be interesting to see just how high the turnout is.

Be careful about things people may or may not have said.

As a journo has just tweeted that don't jump to conclusions. Remember this time a year ago on GE night everyone was predicting a Labour win and Ed Miliband was running through his acceptance speech.

We know how that turned out.

London was always going to be strong Remain.

Rest of country especially Northern and Eastern very very different

I know - it's all just conjecture at this stage. And yes, you are right about the rest of the UK.

You Gov unofficial poll Remain 52% Leave 48%

With caution apparently as they unsuccessfully predicted the GE at close.

There seems to be a new myth that Labour victory was confidently predicted before the last general election - I've seen a few statements like this on different threads. The polls were certainly incorrect, but they predicted a hung parliament, not a Labour victory. I guess it's not such a good story.

I think the Indyref yougov poll was only off by 1 point though.

Good point by My DH about Farage.

As an ex banker he maybe going with the markets rather than anything else.

Teflon Cameron?

86 Conservatives have signed a letter of support regardless of the result.

And The Sun has a first edition cover already - with Farage conceding defeat!

WTF!?

I think Cameron needs to leave, whatever the outcome. No, wait! Not Boris please! (Or Corbyn), much less so Farage... Sturgeon?

Yep annan at the 2015 election the most likely outcome was thought to be no overall majority but the Tories likely to be the largest party. However it was felt that in the case of a hung parliament Labour were more likely to be able to put together a coalition or secure a confidence and supply agreement.

In the weeks leading up the election polls were not indicating an outright Labour majority.

Hmmm What do you reckon? Gideon is about to be sacrificed?

Turnouts are starting to look really high.

Tweet:
If the sampling from Sunderland is correct, Remain have won. And by a good margin.

This is significant because, according to Professor Chris Hanretty’s data, Sunderland is an area where, if Remain and Leave are 50/50 nationwide, Leave should be six points ahead (because it is inherently more pro-Brexit).

Here is an extract from Hanretty’s blog.

If the result in Sunderland is very close, then Remain has probably won. I said that we should expect Leave to be six percentage points ahead in Sunderland.

From Guardian ^

The turnout thing apparently makes it more complicated.

Low turn out would favour leave
High turn out would favour remain
Very high turn out would favour leave.

Not sure how they know that but....

Oranges.

Its the pens dammit.