Whitehall “braced for private schools collapse” 5

[ICouldBeVioletSky]

Starting a continuation thread in anticipation of the fourth one filling up…

www.mumsnet.com/talk/education/5301690-whitehall-braced-for-private-schools-collapse-4?page=39

I'm in Scotland so know little about the private sixth form landscape- does anyone know how that sector is shaping up for next year? Presumably there will be minimal mid year moves as that sounds v difficult to do, and most parents who've committed to it already will push to fund the final year. So it's the number of new students in Autumn 2025 that will show the impact- is that something that's clear yet or is it too early?

All I know is that 6th form applications are so high some schools round here shut applications early, and the oversubscription criteria is higher this year than last.

Oh blimey!

I do think 6th form entrance is where the cracks are going to really show.

It's still a very high birth rate (current Year 6 is where the baby boom years stopped).

It's a very popular point to move schools: with kids choosing according to the subjects they want to study - or simply to have a change - and some 6th form only colleges. Entrance is more often selective (so more chance to get into the one you want). Private participation (20%) is higher than the rest of secondary (so people were previously moving from state to private at that point - and it's easier to choose not to start private than it is to move out). And arguably private brings less benefit in 6th form than the younger years.

It won't show yet @ihearthalloumi . Parents have always applied to state schools at the transition points, even when they intend to go private. It's a no-brainer, tbh. The consequences of not applying and then discovering at some point over the following year that you need a state place after all (due to job loss, illness, your DC not thriving, or even the private school closing down!) are very high. You would get a much worse state school having missed the applications round, possibly a long distance away. Why on earth wouldn't you remove 6 months of that risk?

No one really knows yet how many of the parents who would have given up a state place will decide to keep it after all.

Agree with all of that.

I haven't heard of anyone in state applying to private 6th form, but loads from private applying to state. Some planning to see it out for another 2 years as child is settled with friends and teachers that know them.

DD's comp has a higher ask than my old grammar school!

By 6th form you are reasonably sure of a class full of focused, bright kids who want to be there and are actively interested in the subject.

You also avoid any anti-PS feeling from universities - and can stash away the fees to pay uni fees upfront or the parental contribution towards maintenance.

A lot of parents are also more focused purely on grades by 6th form and less on the overall offer - music, drama, sports, lovely grounds - which makes state even more appealing.

Yes. It was already a thing for some students targetting Oxbridge to move from our academic private to a good local state sixth form.

I think with the divisive rhetoric Labour have used to justify VAT (and our realisation of quite how much hate there is towards us), that will increase. And not only to avoid the disadvantage when applying for University: but also to avoid the prejudice afterwards which we've seen so blatantly on these threads.

By 6th form, the DC have had the opportunities for personal growth private school gives. Whatever sports, music, drama etc they are serious about, they have established (or easily can) outside school. Their attitudes to learning and life are set. It has to be: they'll be off to Uni in 2 years anyway!

I agree, everybody we knew in DC's private primary applied for state as well as private secondary. Then made the final decision depending on what state secondary they got and perhaps what scholarships/perks might be offered at private. Although the plural of anecdote is not data, for the reasons you give I really don't think it is unusual to hedge your bets this way - it's perfectly sensible.

I do know that as DC have applied to several state sixth forms, all have told us they've seen unprecedented levels of applications this year. I don't know whether any have raised entry requirements as I didn't check last year. I read many sixth form application threads while DC were doing their applications and many posters also reported unprecedented demand. Of course, we can't know whether sixth forms just routinely say this every year to make themselves look popular, but if there's any truth in it then it would indicate something about numbers of kids moving out of private at a natural transition point.

Yes. It was already a thing for some students targetting Oxbridge to move from our academic private to a good local state sixth form.

You do realise that both Oxford and Cambridge specifically take into consideration where GCSEs were taken? Taking GCSEs at private and moving to state for A levels doesn’t give students any advantage over students that stayed private for A levels.

Consideration against what? I'd expect gcse location to be considered for WP, but that's only one tiny thing.

For the explicit quotas Cambridge used to have? For their interview selection?

The disadvantage is real enough that parents move sector, and have done for years.

Why would you object to those kids application being treated at face value anyway? If those kids are in state schools, getting state A level teaching, why would their application not be considered equal to other kids in the same schools getting the same teaching? Kids they probably live next door to, have similar hobbies to, similar family advantage to.

Are you really admitting that you just hate kids who have ever been to private school so much that you want it to always count against them forever?

I mean, I know you do... but it's interesting that you admit it.

Any university worth its salt will be doing exactly what suits them going forward, and taking the best students (regardless of type of school and regardless of political interference). Not like politicians give two shits about universities these days.

I reckon universities will be adding “political interference risk” as a footnote to biggest challenges in the next few years, just like private school governors have had to.

It really lays bare the utter spite directed towards these children by some unsavoury characters. This is exactly what the ECHR should be preventing.

Consideration against what? I'd expect gcse location to be considered for WP, but that's only one tiny thing

Considered against both the performance of the school and the pupil’s cohort.

It’s quite clear in the admissions information:

Cambridge: We will look at your GCSE results as an indicator of your academic performance. But this will be within the context of the performance of the school/college where you achieved your GCSEs.

Oxford: The performance of your school or college at GCSE. Your attainment at GCSE compared to GCSE attainment at your school or college.

Nothing to do with quotas and everything to do with trying to game the system by moving to state for A levels in an effort to get more favourable consideration. This was spotted and addressed a long time ago.

Are you really admitting that you just hate kids who have ever been to private school so much that you want it to always count against them forever?

Give over. You’re the one thinking that private school students can get some kind of leg up by moving to state for A levels, and now you’re finding out that’s not the case so you’re resorting to declaring that I must hate privately educated students.

I think that all students should be considered on their merits, but that doesn’t mean that it shouldn’t be recognised that it’s not a level playing field.

It might mean no contextual offer - but loads of state schools don't qualify for that either.

But it does mean that for data purposes the child now ticks the university's state percentage box.

Child can also say 'oh yes, state school' and avoid the prejudice against.

If anyone wants to see that in action, this thread provides plenty of examples of spiteful comments about posh private school students:
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/5336712-19-year-old-in-charge-of-childrens-services-for-leicestershire-council?page=9&reply=144372623

It’s hardly ‘bigotry and spite’ to point out that universities have addressed people trying to game the admissions system.

I guess realising that now is a bit hard to take?

"Nothing to do with quotas and everything to do with trying to game the system by moving to state for A levels in an effort to get more favourable consideration. This was spotted and addressed a long time ago." @SabrinaThwaite

Or maybe parents can't afford the fees, or child wants co-ed, or a change, or PS doesn't provide the subject mix?

Why would you automatically assume it's "gaming the system" when parents are well aware that universities consider where GCSEs are taken?

Oh, let me see - maybe it was this statement from @strawberrybubblegum

Yes. It was already a thing for some students targetting Oxbridge to move from our academic private to a good local state sixth form.

Oxbridge entry "strategies" are, of course, a very handy red herring or a squirrel on this thread.

You’ve got your facts wrong as is often the case. The poster was only pointing out the facts. Why not just admit you are wrong instead of launching into a personal attack?

Maybe once upon a time. Nowadays it's hoping it might take the edge off rather than confer advantage.

I still think it's wrong to judge people on the choices that were made for them as children... yet it happens.

People assume I went to private school because of my accent - I didn't - but I have paid for it over the years with snarky comments and assumptions.

Oxbridge really does not guarantee a top job anymore so the discussion along Oxbridge is completely pointless. Graduate recruitment is very competitive now, top uni alone is no guarantee whatsoever. There are all sorts of psychometric tests and skills based assessments going on for many of the top positions. If it were true that there had been social engineering/gaming the system going on, eventually these kids need to actually go out and do a job, on their own. So even if they do not get into a certain uni, if they have the underlying ability and skill, they will get the job.

I went to one of the top independents in the country and speak as you would expect with that background. I have never found it to be a problem. I am pretty sure others been pigeonholed significantly more for having a different type of accent.

It was brought up by a PS supporter, so a bit of an own goal then eh?

Indeed so, but it sure was very handy for giving VAT supporters the much needed squirrel to revive a burst of joyous posting to end the thread.

She was only pointing out that Oxbridge take into account where you sat your GCSEs. She is 100% correct. Why the need for such a toxic response?

It was correcting misinformation.