Whitehall “braced for private schools collapse” 3

[ICouldBeVioletSky]

Starting a third thread to discuss impact of VAT on private school fees, as the topic looks likely to run (and run). Though probably best to finish off the second thread before posting here, thx.

I’ve taken the time to write two detailed posts explaining why this point is completely ill-conceived. They were published last night and this morning, so it’s not far for your to scroll back.

Please could you point out where in these posts I’ve demonstrated that my “emotion(s)” are “clouding rational thought”?

And please also provide an explanation as to how the points I made are factually incorrect.

Very much looking forward to reading your well-argued, thoughtful and detailed response.

Phillipson is spaffing £90 million on PR + comms for SM for a 1 year contract. Money which could have gone on schools!

The schools already struggling will go first; we're only a term into the VAT. Pretty basic concept quite frankly and baffling as to why its such a struggle to understand.

Because they are choosing to not understand.

£90m on promoting something which is compulsory anyway 😂

It would be comedy genius if it wasn't tragic and our reality.

You've obviously got far more time to waste on this than I have. Even better, let's just wait and see what happens. Just because some schools that were teetering on the edge of viability have closed doesn't mean that viable ones will. Very basic economics.

It’s bizarre. It’s obvious and basic.

That's exactly my thinking looking in at the conjecture.

I agree with you. It’s not ‘emotion clouding rational
thoughts’ at all. Not sure why anyone would claim that.

23 confirmed closures since 1st Jan, 6 more on watchlist for end March + potentially to be repeated each month. You think that's only "some" schools? Each of those closures = teachers + staff out of jobs and kids forced out of schools at which they are happy + settled.

How would you react if state schools were closing at the same rate? Would you just shrug your shoulders and say "let's just wait and see"?

It isn't conjecture FFS! it is happening at a much accelerated rate than initially thought. At which point do you accept it is damaging? When 100 schools close in 6 months? When 30% of all indy schools have closed?

Of course it's only some schools. Ones that were teetering on the edge of not being viable before. That is just a fact. I would take exactly the same view regarding viability if it were state schools closing.

@twistyizzyI think some will be ok with however many closing even if it has a negative impact.

Why anyone would look at proposed cuts to state and still feel pro VAT and overall policies who knows

It is conjecture that solid viable schools will close. They haven't yet or may not ever i.e. that is speculation.

You've forgotten that SEN children in private schools all have the mildest of dyslexia, or are just a bit socially awkward, or a bit dim. Their pushy articulate parents can't face the fact that their offspring are so average and so have paid out thousands to buy them a diagnosis so they can get an extra 25% of time in their exams... oh and save the VAT on fees as SEN kids don't have to pay that.

Or at least that is what I have learned from multiple post over the last year....

That's your subjective view. Who said I was pro VAT. I am not but the hyperbole on these threads is something else.

And the only reason they have been pushed over the edge is by Labour policy!

Without the triple whammy they would most likely have been viable to continue because most indy schools don't run on large margins, they are used to running on small surplus.

And if your child was one of the ones whose school was closing? I read 1000s of letters and emails from extremely worried parents and then come on here to be told it is all hyperbole.

Not really. Just before a 20% tax will impact certain schools doesn’t mean it’s a good policy. It’s obvious and basic that those with less of a buffer will go first. You can attack any sector in this way and see the same.

Which sector are you in that an extra 20% tax would be ok?

20% tax + increased NI + increased business rates. Show me any organisaton that could cope with that in 1 hit?

Turns out private schools dont count for a lot of people, government ministers included. Quite an eye opener really.

You mean the children, teachers and staff in independent schools don't count for anything

Especially kids with SEN in independent schools.

They couldn’t. It’s messed up that people care less when it impacts children’s education and jobs. Actually are all for it in some cases.

But then with all the cuts in state sector it doesn't look like kids, teachers or staff in those schools count either

Who said it's a good policy? I'm just arguing the basic economics. I'd rather not say what sector I am in but of course many businesses across other sectors could survive a 20% tax. The strong players would survive. That applies to what I think will happen with this tax. Just because weaker schools have closed doesn't mean that can be projected across the sector as a whole in the future, which is what many are saying on here. The reality is that there will be a consolidation in the sector with the stronger schools surviving.