Whitehall “braced for private schools collapse” 3

[ICouldBeVioletSky]

Starting a third thread to discuss impact of VAT on private school fees, as the topic looks likely to run (and run). Though probably best to finish off the second thread before posting here, thx.

these results?

https://www.cypnow.co.uk/content/news/research-highlights-negative-impact-of-free-schools-on-local-education/

or these?

https://www.durham.ac.uk/research/current/thought-leadership/2025/01/academies-havent-raised-pupil-achievement--theres-no-need-for-them-to-have-privileges-that-other-schools-do-not/

or perhaps these?

https://www.suttontrust.com/news-opinion/all-news-opinion/free-schools-fail-fulfil-original-purpose/

We need more TEACHERS (not government officials busy bodying around education).

There will always be exceptions.

My old LEA (and where my child has always gone to school) have no schools whatsoever under their control and it's been a huge success.

Academies we're created under Labour to take on failing LA schools. Things under LA jurisdiction were not all unicorns + rainbows

The State has decided to underfund education, chronically. So in some schools, the parents step in to volunteer and make up the gaps. The State should be grateful for this. These parents do not need to do this. Rather than measuring schools against each other assuming the school can make all the difference, start developing some actual honesty and realise that 50% of achievements are driven by the parents.

"However, the disadvantaged pupils that go to secondary free schools perform slightly better than similar pupils at other types of school by GCSE. They achieve the equivalent of a quarter of a grade higher in each subject compared to their peers in other school types."

Isn't that a good thing? @Lebr1

Your article:https://www.suttontrust.com/news-opinion/all-news-opinion/free-schools-fail-fulfil-original-purpose/

"Nearly two-thirds of schools neighbouring a free school reported increased competition for pupil places, particularly of certain types of students, with the result being they spent more on marketing themselves to remain attractive.

“When a free school promoted a fast-paced academic or quasi-private ethos it was often seen by its neighbours to appeal to aspirational or middle-class families,” the report states. “Social selection was also identified where free schools were seen by their neighbours to counsel out children who might be harder to provide for, including by encouraging their parents to apply elsewhere.”"

Ah, so what they object to is what they see as a form of back-door selection and the negative effects on the crap local schools that aspirational parents are seeking to avoid.

Obvs free schools must be a total disaster and the solution is a slightly failing Great British Education (TM) option for all (with no PE, Latin, STEM, music or dance...)

https://www.cypnow.co.uk/content/news/research-highlights-negative-impact-of-free-schools-on-local-education

The immediately preceding statement was "both primary and secondary free schools have slightly lower proportions of disadvantaged pupils than their catchment areas." Peer group has a significant effect on academic outcomes. With social segregation, one would expect the few disadvantaged kids who make it in to outperform their peers who didn't. It doesn't mean the free school is any better than the others. This is confirmed by statements elsewhere in the articles I linked: free schools "failed to improve attainment at primary level, destablised local education systems and increased pupil segregation particularly around ethnicity and income." and "Social selection was also identified where free schools were seen by their neighbours to counsel out children who might be harder to provide for, including by encouraging their parents to apply elsewhere". There is no reason to suppose marginal differences of a fraction of a grade represent a genuine improvement in teaching or educational provision for the population as a whole - they're more likely to be the result of social segregation polarising outcomes in what is at best a a zero-sum game.

But our children are not a social engineering experiment.

This is the same argument used by the opponents of grammar schools. That when corrected for yadda, yadda, yadda characteristic then they don't do better etc.

But for any given individual child their school life and future life might be much better.

Same here, those individual disadvantaged children have done better than they might otherwise have done.

When people treat children as nothing more than pawns to be moved about for the "good of the masses", guess what... aspirational parents say no thanks and opt out, or top up or leave.

Well exactly @OhCrumbsWhereNow - and Covid taught us that school and mass education is not critical anyway, and that we can do a perfectly good enough job ourselves and work at the same time. None of us have to sign up to mass state education for our children to be used as pawns. Remove choice, we will remove our children or leave the country or do whatever suits us.

I’m so sorry Catkin Three years’ wait for a school place is beyond shocking. How are parents and children supposed to manage to cope with that?

I find it awful the invisibility of this lawbreaking by local authorities, who have been starved of resources from central government.
The horrific impact on children and families goes on unseen, in our homes. That makes SEND parents even more isolated and silenced because we need to maintain privacy for our kids but also need to somehow advocate for them ourselves .

Labour is doubling down on Tory neglect of public services, punching down on vulnerable and poor households with these frightening upcoming disability and health related benefit reforms and SEND reforms.

Yet another school closes, this one has been around since 1700s. The damage this government is doing is criminal.

https://www.yorkshireeveningpost.co.uk/education/fulneck-school-announces-shock-closure-5049267

How sad. I wonder how many jobs have now been lost across all the schools which are closing or merging? If this were the steel industry or car industry, it would be the main headline on the news and the government would be stepping in with support packages.

@BustopherPonsonbyJonesso true. Horrendous it’s ok because it’s dc education.

@twistyizzyreally sad.

23 schools now announced closures with another 6 on watch list for March. That's minimum of 400+ teachers and twice as many more staff if you include cleaners, catering, grounds people, admin etc.

Sheesh.

I'm sure there'll be a big-name casualty too soon.

23 schools now announced closures with another 6 on watch list for March.

Wow. They’ll be cracking open the (tax-payer funded) champagne at Labour HQ this week.

Interesting Torygraph article about the court case next week:

“Human rights laws may yet reverse Labour’s private school VAT raid”

https://archive.ph/j5uzh

ETA: it’s written by one of the parents bringing the action.

How did you get it in this link btw? It's handy for sending articles to people would love to know.

Just get the weblink of the paywalled article and paste it into https://archive.ph/
or 12 foot ladder, or the Wayback Machine. I don’t know quite how they do it but they normally have a copy of the behind the paywall article. (Occasionally if the article is very new you have to wait a few hours for it to appear). Brilliant, isn’t it?!

I do include them! Many of the schools will be the major employer in the area and jobs aren’t readily available. Amazing how many people can be sacrificed for one group’s personal ideology. I hope it weighs heavy on their conscience.

How many of the private schools looking at closure are successful and with static or rising rolls?

I’m going to pretend your question was serious and in good faith.

Successful schools are obviously not closing.

Schools are closing because they are not viable in terms of finances or pupil numbers (typically two sides of the same coin).

Numbers are dropping for a few reasons, falling birth rate being one, the imposition of VAT being another. Some schools will fail because the parents can’t or won’t pay the fees + VAT and the school can’t afford to absorb the increase.

Of course, there have always been schools that fail and close, so we can’t conclude that all these closures are due entirely or even partly due to VAT. Some schools are just badly managed or fail to attract enough families.

However the substantial increase in the number of school closures since the announcement and implementation of the VAT policy leads to the almost inescapable conclusion that VAT is playing a significant part.

I am absolutely posting in good faith- I don’t understand why you might think otherwise. And I have said repeatedly that VAT will have an impact on private schools-of course it will. The closure of any school is sad and difficult. But the evidence seems to be that the schools which are closing are schools which are not coping in other ways too- and which, frankly, parents have not been choosing for some time. And I am also assuming that many parents will be sending their kids to other private schools. So while nobody wants a school to close for many reasons, an increase in closures does not necessarily mean children being shifted to an alien environment or a damaging influx into state schools. There is much hyperbole and propaganda on both sides which is not helpful. And which gets in the way of sensible discussion on education more widely.

Dont think you are posting in good faith because this has been explained to you ad nauseum.
Potentially 30 schools will have closed by end March. That's 3 x 'average' amount.
If that many state schools had closed there would be a national outcry.

Most indy schools work on tight margins ie 1 term surplus. They simply can't cope with the triple whammy of: falling rolls due to VAT, increased NI + increased business rates. The fact you refuse to accept this fact points to be disingenuous about it.
18 months ago we said that schools would close, we were told by posters like you that we we were being hyperbolic. Well those schools are now closing and you still say we are being hyperbolic, how would you react if it was your child in one of those schools?

At what point do you accept that this is an issue, when 50 indy schools close? 100 close? 200 close? Or none because you don't like them anyway so you are happy that they are closing?