Whitehall “braced for private schools collapse” 3

[ICouldBeVioletSky]

Starting a third thread to discuss impact of VAT on private school fees, as the topic looks likely to run (and run). Though probably best to finish off the second thread before posting here, thx.

The royal school closure is just the beginning of the tragedy. I have reviewed other small prep schools accounts in the same area - more closures are coming soon in this area. Wait and see. It is so sad situation 😞

I don't understand why they are happy for school closures. No matter it is state or private school. Forcing children to leave their beloved education environment is so cruel.

What a bizarre argument!

This 'quintessential British education ' was always limited to a small number of the privileged! Not 'quintessential ' at all, it was an outlier. The vast majority of children have always had access only to what the state provides.

Malory Towers wasn't the norm for the majority of British children. It wasn't even the norm for the very privileged children at boarding school. It was fiction. A fantasy.

@ThisRedBee
The Royal School has been in serious financial difficulty for years. They approached United Learning in 2019.
The school has been unviable for a long time.

Perhaps she is referring to one of the key attractions of the British education system. Many private schools welcome international students, who pay a premium for admission. Education has long been a successful industry that the UK has marketed globally. However, its reputation is now fading, making the sector less appealing. Given that the UK lacks a strong manufacturing base and its GDP relies heavily on services, what does this mean for the country's future?

There are falling numbers in state schools as well, so some have to close. You can't keep a school running on ever decreasing numbers.

Well, yes, I can imagine that the fantasy sold well. Enid Blyton (and her literary estate) should have earned millions!

The VAT is the last straw on the camel’s back. Many small schools struggled financially during COVID-19, and even in a stable economy, recovery would take years. However, the added burden of VAT, removal of business relief and increase of NIC will further weaken the economy, eliminating any hope of recovery. As a result, these schools have no choice but to close now.

This will likely affect not just private schools but small businesses as a whole. The economy is not isolated; it operates as a loop where everything is interconnected. When one sector suffers, the impact ripples through the entire system, affecting everyone.

I'm sure her estate is absolutely minting it, as the books are still read (despite being very dated) in Anglo speaking communities across Asia and Africa. It's an example of Britain's soft power - the Harry Potter books only added to the mystique in more recent times. Fantasy yes, but that's how soft power works.

It’s entirely predictable because it’s been failing to attract enough pupils and is seriously under subscribed.

Presumably if a non viable school closes, the pupils move to other schools that were also on the borderline and strengthens them?

So, if half a dozen state primaries are facing falling rolls, one closes, the rest get the pupils to strengthen their numbers?

If a private school closes because fewer families can't afford it any more, the families that can afford it move to.other private schools, which improves their financial position and makes it more secure?

That's capitalism for you, supply and demand?

Perhaps it’s better to view this as a major industry that provides jobs and employment rather than just focusing on individual earnings. The government—and those who support these policies—are acting with short-term vision. By undermining a key sector, they risk long-term damage to the economy, making recovery even more difficult for everyone.

Is it a key sector? I have no idea what % of GDP relates to private schools?

Happy to learn more about it.

From an uninformed view I have more concerns about our universities, because I think more likely graduates want to stay around after graduation. Also, universities are slightly more aligned to academic ability rather than ability to pay.

Well said. The drop in student numbers is largely because people in this country are getting poorer and can no longer afford private education. If the idea behind introducing VAT is to push borderline private school parents to transfer their children to state schools—just to prevent state schools from collapsing—then it’s a deeply flawed strategy. Instead of addressing the root economic issues, it simply shifts the burden elsewhere, likely overwhelming the already struggling state education system. I don't quite get the point of doing so.

United Learning took over the Royal School in 2019, and invested over £16 million. So presumably in 2019 that very successful consortium felt the school had a future.

However, the government policies on VAT, business rates and NI will have put pressure on all the private schools in United Learning.

It's not only made the Royal School less viable as their numbers have dropped, but also reduced what United Learning can sensibly invest to support the Royal School's long-term recovery, as it seeks to protect all its schools.

I share your concerns about the viability of our Universities, but what does that have to do with VAT on private schools?

Private schools remove the burden on the state of educating a certain percentage of UK children. Pushing those children into state increases the state burden. There's no equivalent in Universities.

You formed your notions of British education from 1940s upper middle class fiction?

How bizarre

But most parents in a private school that closes won't send them to a state school, they will send them to another private school, making that school more financially secure.

Some will switch to state because they can't afford private, of course.

But surely the end result will be that the many private schools on the edge of just about managing financially will be reduced because the non viable ones close, and most of their pupils go to.others that were coming close to not being viable? Thus strengthening the ones receiving the extra pupils?

Don't worry too much, there'll be less of impact on the famous ancient boarding schools that serve the super-rich. This policy is designed to go after the middle-income parents who are likely making great sacrifices for their children to attend private schools, often because they were failed by the state system.

It’s the age old famous UK crabs in a bucket mentality that destroyed so many industries and downgraded the quality of U.K. life over the years coupled with easily led people falling for the othering of independently educated children and populist nonsense that an education tax will improve education.

It’s unfair and misleading to say these parents "were failed by the state system." If they had truly been failed, they wouldn’t be middle-income in the first place.

These are hardworking, middle-income families who simply choose to make sacrifices to give their children the best possible education. But even if they are forced to transfer their kids to state schools due to rising costs, they won’t stop investing in their children's future. Instead, they’ll redirect their money into private tutoring and extracurricular activities—perhaps even more rigorously than before as they don't need to pay private school fees anymore!!!

As a result, competition for places in good state schools will only intensify, creating even more pressure in an already strained system. Rather than making education fairer, this policy may actually deepen inequalities In the poor people.

Because no one wants to say VAT is a bad policy even as schools close because they backed it.

But yeh of course it'll take the lower rung out, same as any sector which gets hit and you get a new tranche of non viable organisations which go under.

Insolvency goes up, jobs lost, and in this case education goes down.

If it's like where DD and her family live in Surrey, their MP will be Conservative so next to useless.

…just to add that because independently educated children are a net benefit to the state, every 140 children pushed into the state sector costs the tax payer an additional £1 million a year to educate. It’s such a daft policy, it’s difficult to understand how it even got this far.