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Whitehall “braced for private schools collapse” 3

1000 replies

ICouldBeVioletSky · 23/02/2025 09:16

Starting a third thread to discuss impact of VAT on private school fees, as the topic looks likely to run (and run). Though probably best to finish off the second thread before posting here, thx.

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34
Darhon · 23/03/2025 19:06

twistyizzy · 22/03/2025 20:37

It's just another example of Labour supporting supercilious and arrogant attitude

Lots of us have had SEN kids in state schools. Why would assume we haven’t. In fact it would be much better and fairer to have appropriate SEN support in state schools. The current system is highly expensive to councils and often reliant on the parents with the education and means to push through appeals so a council will pay for private provision. The latter would not be sustainable if every child who needed it was funded.

twistyizzy · 23/03/2025 19:10

Darhon · 23/03/2025 19:06

Lots of us have had SEN kids in state schools. Why would assume we haven’t. In fact it would be much better and fairer to have appropriate SEN support in state schools. The current system is highly expensive to councils and often reliant on the parents with the education and means to push through appeals so a council will pay for private provision. The latter would not be sustainable if every child who needed it was funded.

100% agree with "fact it would be much better and fairer to have appropriate SEN support in state school" but Labour arent doing this. They are going to make it harder to obtain an EHCP plus limit parent ability to appeal. They are then going to force more SEN into mainstream without the money to support them (oh they will give a tiny % uplift but not the proper amount needed).

Darhon · 23/03/2025 19:20

It’s a major reason many councils are facing bankruptcy so it’s a finely balanced thing. And it means kids whose parents don’t have the skills and means to fight for them miss out. So it’s a wider issue. But I get why parents don’t want state provision. If only the vat increase had been ring fenced to improve sen provision. It would take pressure off schools and probably improve teacher recruitment

Onehusbandfourkids · 23/03/2025 19:24

We are very sad about S Anselm's, Derbyshire. Although financial changes have certainly not helped, there are other factors at play here too. In our experience the school never fully recovered from the deeply problematic tenure of one relatively recent headmaster (who was eventually sacked) and the then-governors' handling of this divisive period. Most recently the school had teamed up with Birkdale, Sheffield who took over the governance role.

It is awful to think that the buildings and sports fields above Bakewell might become yet more expensive apartments/houses, tourist accommodation or second homes, rather than the happy, thriving little school community it once was.

twistyizzy · 23/03/2025 19:27

Darhon · 23/03/2025 19:20

It’s a major reason many councils are facing bankruptcy so it’s a finely balanced thing. And it means kids whose parents don’t have the skills and means to fight for them miss out. So it’s a wider issue. But I get why parents don’t want state provision. If only the vat increase had been ring fenced to improve sen provision. It would take pressure off schools and probably improve teacher recruitment

What VAT? Seriously, once you take off the exemptions, claim back, the % of parents who paid up front so will never pay VAT, the much higher than government figures predicted, increased costs of paying for SEN kids who leave indy schools into state, number of indy schools closing (3 x average since 1st Jan) + the cost of the legal challenge, they will be lucky to see 0.5 billion ie one third of what was predicted.

OhCrumbsWhereNow · 23/03/2025 19:56

Darhon · 23/03/2025 19:20

It’s a major reason many councils are facing bankruptcy so it’s a finely balanced thing. And it means kids whose parents don’t have the skills and means to fight for them miss out. So it’s a wider issue. But I get why parents don’t want state provision. If only the vat increase had been ring fenced to improve sen provision. It would take pressure off schools and probably improve teacher recruitment

Except that it is highly debatable whether there will be ANY money raised.

The most likely children to be moved back to state will be SEN thus increasing costs within state.

IVTT · 23/03/2025 23:44

strawberrybubblegum · 23/03/2025 13:58

Interesting. From that article:
In a statement the Department for Education said that the policy "will raise £1.8 billion a year by 2029/30 and that just 0.1% of pupils will be switching from private to state schools"

Where to start? That the date is in the next term of government?!

Or that they can't do maths and/or are clueless about impacts (OK, we know that already!) when they say that only 0.1% of pupils will switch. That would be only 1.5% of the 7% of chuldren who are at private school switching. They had previously predicted 3-5%. And it's blindingly obvious that it will be more.

Or are they lying through pedantry? In 2029/2030 - 5 years after the introduced the new tax - only 2/7 of the children who were in private schools when it was introduced won't have moved anyway to the next stage of education. So if the children in the younger years just didn't start private school (when they would have otherwise) then they aren't strictly switching. Although the financial impact is the same for the state. Ie if 10% of those who would have gone private, instead choose state then the policy loses money every year.

Actually it's probably that last point, since 2/7 of 5% they said would migrate actually comes to the number they gave (1.5% of the 7%, which is 0.1% of all students)

So it looks like Labour are deliberately obfuscating the truth that the policy will lose money, through trickery and hoping that people can't do maths... as well as being incompetent by also underestimating the numbers who will migrate (it will be higher than 5%)... and also evading responsibility by pushing the date outside their term in office.

Pretty much what we would expect from Labour.

My daughter is in yr6. She is one of 9 kids in her year transferring to State secondary. This is 21% of her year group.
This a well regarded successful school where parents normally transfer in for yr6 to avoid the Senior school entrance exam. 0 transfers in this year so far.

So very anecdotally, the number switching is far higher at this key transition point than predicted by the Gvt.

Ubertomusic · 24/03/2025 08:10

IVTT · 23/03/2025 23:44

My daughter is in yr6. She is one of 9 kids in her year transferring to State secondary. This is 21% of her year group.
This a well regarded successful school where parents normally transfer in for yr6 to avoid the Senior school entrance exam. 0 transfers in this year so far.

So very anecdotally, the number switching is far higher at this key transition point than predicted by the Gvt.

It's roughly 25% of our class so far (some people are still undecided whether to take up grammar places so may be more than 25% come September) - also an excellent through school that historically had 0-5% switching to state grammars.

Another school is laying off staff so add to this teachers' children switching to state though the exact figure is unclear yet.

Xenia · 24/03/2025 08:13

Yes, I don't think Labour will raise anything like as much money as it expects from this but I am not sure they are really doing it to raise money. it will certainly mean that the few areas with state grammars will probably find some state school children find it harder to get into state grammars at 11+ because of some additional children from private schools moving sectors.

Araminta1003 · 24/03/2025 09:03

Bridget Phillipson is clueless!
Does she really think scrapping free school meals at KS1 is not divisive?
Middle class parents won’t pay up for school meals (which then get worse and worse as hard to cater properly without proper numbers). Middle class parents send healthy packed lunches which are then served in different parts of the dining hall, segregating the kids from an early age.

twistyizzy · 24/03/2025 09:04

Araminta1003 · 24/03/2025 09:03

Bridget Phillipson is clueless!
Does she really think scrapping free school meals at KS1 is not divisive?
Middle class parents won’t pay up for school meals (which then get worse and worse as hard to cater properly without proper numbers). Middle class parents send healthy packed lunches which are then served in different parts of the dining hall, segregating the kids from an early age.

But it's fine because all kids will be getting a 60p breakfast!!!

Araminta1003 · 24/03/2025 09:05

The VAT on private schools is exactly like when Labour scrapped grammar schools. It has been that all along. Lying about the money they raised and burying it as a “tax” is just to try and get it through the courts. That was pretty obvious to most people.

CurlewKate · 24/03/2025 09:25

Araminta1003 · 24/03/2025 09:05

The VAT on private schools is exactly like when Labour scrapped grammar schools. It has been that all along. Lying about the money they raised and burying it as a “tax” is just to try and get it through the courts. That was pretty obvious to most people.

Labour didn’t scrap grammar schools. This is a quotation from the Conservative Secretary of State for Education who did. “‘The essential point is that all children should have an equal opportunity of acquiring intelligence, and of developing their talents and abilities to the full’”

Barbadossunset · 24/03/2025 09:36

Labour didn’t scrap grammar schools

Surely they had a hand in it? Didn’t Anthony Crosland, Secretary if State for Education and Science in Harold Wilson’s Labour government say
“If it's the last thing I do, I'm going to destroy every fucking grammar school in England. And Wales and Northern Ireland."

CurlewKate · 24/03/2025 09:48

Barbadossunset · 24/03/2025 09:36

Labour didn’t scrap grammar schools

Surely they had a hand in it? Didn’t Anthony Crosland, Secretary if State for Education and Science in Harold Wilson’s Labour government say
“If it's the last thing I do, I'm going to destroy every fucking grammar school in England. And Wales and Northern Ireland."

Of course they “had a hand in it.” I have no idea whether that is an accurate quotation from Crossland or not, but Labour certainly agreed with the abolition of selective education.

But it’s a myth that it was a Labour initiated policy. It wasn’t. It was a Conservative policy.

Shambles123 · 24/03/2025 10:00

Labour got rid of the assisted places scheme in 1997 when Blair came to power.

Araminta1003 · 24/03/2025 10:06

I want central Government politicians to stay away from my children as much as possible! I want my local authority funded with my taxes to a much greater extent and I want them to work with academies to provide an education that suits our demographic locally. I do not want any parties trying to make my children the next Marxist/Tory what have you. I hate ideology of these people being used to manipulate the next generation. It is unacceptable. I also want educational academics to stay the heck away from my children too. I want the head teachers and teachers to make decisions on what suits their demographic.

twistyizzy · 24/03/2025 10:07

CurlewKate · 24/03/2025 09:48

Of course they “had a hand in it.” I have no idea whether that is an accurate quotation from Crossland or not, but Labour certainly agreed with the abolition of selective education.

But it’s a myth that it was a Labour initiated policy. It wasn’t. It was a Conservative policy.

Not completely true:
<a class="break-all" href="https://www.google.com/url?q=www.bbc.com/news/education-34538222" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/education-34538222.amp

Under the leadership of Harold Wilson and with the push from education secretary Anthony Crosland, began the process of phasing out grammar schools in the mid-1960s, replacing them with a comprehensive system.

IVTT · 24/03/2025 10:19

@Xenia Grammar School scores are up a lot this year compared to last year.
Warwickshire had to score far beyond the pass mark to get a place.
Lots of discussion on 11+ forums about more competition for places this year and the expected lack of movement on wait lists due to VAT policy.

Examples from parents on this forum:
Lawrence Sheriff school score jumped for outer catchment from 217 in 2024 to 232 this year to get an initial offer.
Rugby HS child scored 220 only got #28 on wait list. Sister scored 216 2 years ago and got a place automatically on offer day.

Very bad news for bright kids whose parents can’t afford tutors to boost their scores!

Araminta1003 · 24/03/2025 10:21

The tripartite system was meant to have really good technical colleges sitting alongside the grammar and the secondary modern. Being Britain they failed to invest in enough technical colleges so the whole thing got scrapped. Where I live, the most successful comprehensive is still one of the former technical colleges.
The whole concept of the free school and academy was to move the thinking away from constant political interference. Current Labour ideology seem to have an issue with that. Blair did not.

IVTT · 24/03/2025 11:46

twistyizzy · 24/03/2025 07:39

So they are giving ‘free’ breakfast clubs as missing meals is a barrier to attainment and then take away a lunch instead.
Makes sense! 😵‍💫

Lebr1 · 24/03/2025 11:48

The whole concept of the free school and academy was mainly to undermine local government and open up education to the private sector - taxpayer money going straight into the well-stuffed pockets of CEO's of multi-academy trusts and their cronies.

OhCrumbsWhereNow · 24/03/2025 11:49

Lebr1 · 24/03/2025 11:48

The whole concept of the free school and academy was mainly to undermine local government and open up education to the private sector - taxpayer money going straight into the well-stuffed pockets of CEO's of multi-academy trusts and their cronies.

And the results showed it was a good move for education and for children.

And a good move for parents who wanted more choice.

Araminta1003 · 24/03/2025 11:53

Free schools where I live are excellent. If you give parents a choice, typically they are then involved themselves and invested.
Education is a partnership between schools (management/teachers) and parents. Politicians’ role is to provide the funding and stay away from what they do not understand. Where the parenting is challenged for social reasons or there are disabilities, this is where the LA can step in to “help” and support with additional funds. However, most good parents need zero involvement from politicians, nor do good teachers or head teachers.

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