Whitehall “braced for private schools collapse” 3

[ICouldBeVioletSky]

Starting a third thread to discuss impact of VAT on private school fees, as the topic looks likely to run (and run). Though probably best to finish off the second thread before posting here, thx.

@twistyizzyThe problem is that you don’t seem to be reading what I’m actually saying. You appear to think I’m posting in bad faith when I am actually just not agreeing with you. Which is frustrating-to say the least. I have never denied that VAT will have an impact on private schools. I just don’t agree that it will
be the catastrophic impact you say it will be.

Bad faith can be self-deception too, and you have been persistently ignoring facts on these threads.

It is of course normal for human beings so you're not alone in this :)

Yet it's having a massive impact on the kids involved.
You don't think potentially 30 x schools closing in 3 months is bad? If by 6 months that is 60 schools closed I feel that is bordering on a catastrophe because the trend will only continue to be upwards!
Like I said, if state schools were closing at this rate then there would be a national outcry!

I do read what you write and that's why I think you are being disingenuous. At what point, in your opinion, does it become a disaster? You have consistently ignores, down played the reality of children + parents, just because they choose independent school. Would you have the same attitude if we were talking about state schools closing at the same rate?

Law has the concept in tort of a “significant contributing factor”. Look up negligence cases. It need not be causation 100 per cent.
So if VAT on private schools is a significant contributing factor to schools closing and the state interfering with children’s education, then the courts will likely consider it as evidence.

Politically, let’s assume the judicial review sends the SEND question back to Parliament. Are we really going to be seeing Labour MPs voting to stop children with SENDs getting an education (albeit in a private school)? This has to be considered against the backdrop of all the other disability policy decisions going on. Will Starmer let them vote freely? Then we will see the true colours of some Labour MPs.

Or in other words @CurlewKate - surely we cannot have some outraged Labour MPs over disability cuts yet at the same time they are going to vote for VAT on SEND children, because the parents think “wrongly” and sent them to private school. What a look!

I find it utterly bewildering that anyone is still defending Labour.

YESSS! So useful - thank you :-)

The latest school to close was opened in 1730s. Survived 295 years until Labour came along. This wasn't some no name school.

I think the disingenuous posters are the ones who seem to ignore all factors in a private school closure except the levying of VAT. Or suggest that, for example, that Fulneck was doing brilliantly until Labour was elected….

"All the factors" yes = falling rolls due to VAT, increased NI + increased business rates. Really not hard to understand yet you keep on denying it!
The reason rolls are falling is due to VAT FFS! Or are you denying that parents are pulling their kids out/not starting on independent journey to begin with?!
Parents started acting + giving notice straight after the election, 10K fewer started in Sept 24 than Sept 25 and we know that approx 30K have left since Sept. That's around 8% already left before end of academic year.
So yes, obviously that = falling rolls = less income at a time when government imposed costs are rising steeply and the meagre reserves which most schools have, are simply not enough.

This is all due to Labour!

Fulneck school was in difficulty for several years by their own admission
Fulneck has been impacted by a constant decline in the number of students for several years, which was compounded by the pandemic resulting in an unsustainable decline in students.
"The decline in student numbers has been combined with a rise in costs beyond our control, which has made the school financially unviable.

@twistyizzywait- so falling rolls are because of Labour policies? All these schools were flourishing and full before Labour was elected? You don’t seriously believe that, do you? What’s causing the falling rolls in state schools, then?

They have exacerbated the situation with VAT. They have speeded up the process

I agree.

Of course VAT will take out schools that are in the lower band of viability. You can use gov policy to make it final or not.

Labour have chosen to damage the sector and put in policy that closes those schools.

State won’t even prosper. There are more cuts on the way. Which is galling

The gap between what state and private will widen. So depressing.

Yes, some schools may not have been coping for a while and some may have gone under regardless of VAT and now have a handy external factor to blame.

But as has been pointed out as nauseam on these threads, many of the closing schools may have been able to bumble along for another 3/5/10+ years but for the VAT/NI/business rates triple whammy. And it cannot credibly be argued that it is of no consequence that VAT has hastened their demise. (Try googling “but for causation” as another legal concept that illustrates this).

An analogy drawn earlier is that you cannot argue that the care home deaths caused by the disastrous early COVID policies of the last government didn’t matter because hey, these were all elderly people who probably didn’t have long left anyway.

Had these “inevitably but gradually declining” schools not been hit so hard, at such short notice, mid-academic year they may also have had an opportunity to secure their futures a different way. Eg by merging with another school (struggling or otherwise), marketing more overseas, changing from single sex to co-ed. So may not have ultimately closed at all.

"And I am also assuming that many parents will be sending their kids to other private schools. "

Yes, it's likely that some parents will send their children to another private school. For some that may mean only limited disruption.

For others - particularly those in years 10 and 12, it is likely to be a disaster, given that it's highly unlikely that a new school will offer the same combination of subjects with the same exam boards and the same modules taught in the same order.

Then there are SEND kids with emotional/anxiety issues who - even if they can find another school that can meet their needs and which has places- will find it enormously disruptive and traumatic to face such a move at all.

SEND kids with any type of need may be unable to find any suitable school state or private, that meets their needs. Ditto children at other specialist schools (eg religious schools) or in rural areas where there is no logistically viable alternative. Naturally all this was fully considered and planned for in they very thorough impact assessment which the government undertook before implementing this policy. 🙄

And of course many parents won't be able to move their kids to a new private school- the whole point of the VAT impact is that it makes fees unaffordable for them. If a school is closing because parents are dropping like flies due to the fees hike then by definition most of those parents can't afford an alternative private school.

Children on bursaries are also unlikely to find a place at an alternative private school because schools are focusing their bursary funds on keeping existing students in place.

Do you start to see the problem?

“Human rights laws may yet reverse Labour’s private school VAT raid

@ICouldBeVioletSky If Labour lose this case, I wonder what alternative they will come up with. No doubt Alastair Campbell et al are plotting a plan B.

@CurlewKatedid you see the cuts proposed to state?

Why are you so pro a policy that will widen the gap between state and private?

https://schoolsweek.co.uk/funding-storm-prepares-to-crash-into-schools/

But these cost increases are “only” due to expected salary increases and increased national insurance contributions?

and costs of SEN?

Private schools has these too - in addition to VAT. <Waiting for the usual posters to talk about which cuts can be made and how the models for state schools not may be sustainable… >

sorry, not had my Morning coffee so I am grumpy

“If Labour lose this case, I wonder what alternative they will come up with. No doubt Alastair Campbell et al are plotting a plan B.”

Plan B should be “lead by example”. Auction of the Westminster wine cellar, tighten all rules on freebies, stop any sleaze…
That would be a start! And then funnel it into Education for the better good of society, in the long run.

@HooverIsAlwaysBrokenI feel the same as I’m not sure what you’re asking me

Or the part about private schools?

@Barbadossunset If Labour loses it will be a massive PR disaster, but it’s unclear how they would tackle it in parliament.

However I asked a tax litigation partner at work about the case today - he said he’d not really read into it (he has a different sub-specialty) but that he felt it was highly unlikely to succeed. He thought the value in bringing it was to draw attention to the issues and try to apply political pressure, rather than there being much prospect of it leading to a change in policy.

Just one view but as ever it’s best not to pin hopes on an unpredictable legal claim.

I agree. It would seem that all the emotion around the topic clouds rational thought. If the schools had been stable and viable they would not have been going bust after three months of VAT.

It has been explained repeatedly how this happens due to small surplus most indy schools run on + the triple whammy of Labour policy. You are just refusing to acknowledge.