Whitehall “braced for private schools collapse” 3

[ICouldBeVioletSky]

Starting a third thread to discuss impact of VAT on private school fees, as the topic looks likely to run (and run). Though probably best to finish off the second thread before posting here, thx.

Strikes by doctors happened and resulted in pay deals. No further strikes by doctors are predicted.

Personally I think state school teachers should strike over violence by pupils and the failure of 'inclusion' - pupils with significant learning disabilities being forced into mainstream is failing them and their classmates.

It's such a poor reflection on the lack of sense.

Perhaps it is purely an ideological policy.
Perhaps it is a step aiming to break down an archaic education system which benefits only the few and exacerbates inequality.

So you agree that in part the motivation is to damage the private education sector?

But can you not see that it will just create a different inequality?

Parents tutoring for the top state selectives, parents tutoring to ensure their kids get the grades for 6th form or university, parents buying into catchments…

The aim should be to improve the state offer for all children not to try and put obstacles in the way or pull down successful sectors. Nobody benefits from that - least of all those children who only have state provision available.

And screw the kids impacted?

Parents tutoring for the top state selectives, parents tutoring to ensure their kids get the grades for 6th form or university, parents buying into catchments…

This already happens though? Not that I think the VAT will improve things, I think it's just a cash grab and there will be more of that in the future as we are broke.

I don't even think it will raise much money but it's an easy win in terms of tax hikes as impacts very few.

This is right!

I went to poor state schools throughout my childhood and always believed that private schools were at the heart of inequality. Now as an adult with children of my own, I realise that the state system was actually my biggest issue and hugely rigged against me. I didn't live in the right catchments so I was subjected to state funded inequality that completely undermined my ability to meet my potential and gave other children a massive leg up all at the tax payers (i.e. My parents) expense. The exact same thing is still happening now and it is terrible.

Private schools are a red herring. Let parents pay to take these kids off the State's books and let the private sector worry about the huge amount of SEN kids going there. The focus needs to be on improving standards in poorly performing schools and looking at why some schools out perform others so dramatically. Potentially we need to look at radical reform to even out catchments and tackle cultural issues in places where these have become a barrier to education. We need to look at SEN and how it is managed. All of these issues are much more important to achieving educational equality than dismantling a sector that is actually producing highly educated and productive members of society.

It’s not a win if it results in sixth forms being unfunded for their students, schools closing with knock on effects for local employment, parents transferring to state and going part time (or spending their newly liberated cash on holidays outside the UK or their pension plan).

It’s utterly backwards thinking economically. It’s lose lose all round - just look at Greece for the prototype.

We have to disagree as I don't think this policy will turn us into Greece...

https://www.theguardian.com/education/article/2024/sep/10/uk-primary-class-sizes-among-biggest-in-industrialised-world-report-finds

They need to urgently look at primary school class sizes. If they were 25 across the board, outcomes would be much better for children.

How much NET gain do Labour gain with private schools folding? That's what is going to be interesting.

We definitely need to increased funding in the education sector.

It’s not turning us into Greece, it’s the lessons that should be learned from the Greek decision to put VAT on their private education.

Didn’t end well

And the current model (based on headcount) probably contributes to the larger class sizes.

@OhCrumbsWhereNow As I said we are not Greece so I wouldn't use it as an example of what will happen. I think the majority of parents well swallow the cost. You can disagree though as I already said.

"I think the majority of parents well swallow the cost" ah yes that's why there were 10,000 fewer starts in Sept 24 Vs Sept 23 + why more than predicted for the whole year had left after the first term. That's why 18 schools have announced closures etc = because majority of parents will swallow the cost!

Please don't presume to know how these parents will behave, or how much they can afford this tax. The evidence points to it being a tipping point for many. Sept 25 will be the litmus test and we expect a lot more closures to be announced

I’d also add that the majority of parents can swallow the cost AND this can be a net negative fiscal policy. Depending on how it is modelled, only 10-15% drop in private school use would erase any revenue gains. So if 80% of current AND future private school parents stick with the system it will cost more than it earns.

@twistyizzy can you link to this please? Does the below account for the drop in birth rates?

""I think the majority of parents well swallow the cost" ah yes that's why there were 10,000 fewer starts in Sept 24 Vs Sept 23 + why more than predicted for the whole year had left after the first term. That's why 18 schools have announced closures etc = because majority of parents will swallow the cost! "

Please don't presume to know how these parents will behave, or how much they can afford this tax.

But how do you know how all these parents will behave?
I used to work in a private school (finance) & have many friends with dc's in private's.

www.spectator.co.uk/article/is-there-really-a-private-school-exodus/

This is a balanced article.

A lot of the arguments about this ignore the fact that fees have increased considerably over the last few decades & already priced many out, increased teachers pension costs or opting out, that private schools were closing before this particularly the less glossy smaller ones, lower birth rates, etc.

You may have missed my posts up thread. Private schools aren't the only sector seriously affected by escalating costs of doing business over the past decade. Private nurseries have done the same - they are also now becoming unaffordable and are often THE SAME PRICE as private schools. You may not have young children so you won't know or realise. The govt raising minimum wage and NI costs will similarly put many private nurseries out of business, which will have a huge impact on working families. Private schools aren't the bogeyman - they are trying to balance books alongside everyone else and it's really really expensive to run any educational or child based provision.

Edited to add: but people pay for these things as their children are precious to them and they want control over quality of care or education provision. Nursery or school.

The last thing the govt needs to be doing now is trying to drive private provision out of business as they don't have the money for the state to take on the burden just yet - for nursery childcare or for schooling. It will instead just lead to badly funded poor quality outcomes for all. Surely you can see that?

It's mistimed ideology.

I don’t think we are ignoring those factors - many of us (myself for sure) have specifically highlighted how a very difficult broader environment as background makes the impact of vat more disastrous for families and schools.

it’s a bit like in personal finance where you might have been able to adapt to a sudden steep mortgage rate increase on its own, but when your wiggle room has been eroded by higher costs of energy, food, council tax, etc. the rate increase might push you over the edge despite all previous financial planning.