How many kids do you know definitely leaving private for state?

[Quodraceratops]

I'd be very interested to know how many children people know of who are definitely leaving their private school for a state school - not people with plans to do so in future years, solely those definitely going now / in 2025.
For myself - large Scottish all years school, I only have knowledge of my early primary kids's classes - no-one leaving so far (but I'm guessing early primary may be less affected as Labour have been signalling this policy for a while so you wouldn't start if you couldn't afford VAT).

Gosh you are so wrong - our prep has a tiny reception class this year as so many children ended up not taking places. I just said on another post I know of 12 leavers but actually when counting I missed 2 out so in a little prep school I know of 14 leavers plus a reception class that is clearly not viable.

Should have also added that is the number that have left now! There will be more as state school places are secured

3 that are definite. My ds who I will take out after his GCSEs next summer. And my friend's two kids, year 11 and year 8 who will also be taken out of the private school at the end of this academic year.

This is fairly normal. The busiest entry years for preps are preschool, year 1 and year 3. Most schools struggle to fill reception classes.

DC is in infants, two left from their class for state. Reception has half the number of children it usually has. The school does not have the reserves to keep going with such small numbers, so I foresee it closing shortly - DC will move to state then and as we're in a rural area the council will probably have to provide transport. Will costs such as that be taken into account when Labour does their calculations on how much this policy has raised?

My daughter is in Y6 so I wouldn't expect people to pull out their kids at this point. The school has said that they will keep the increase to 5% for this school year and that will only apply to the two terms from the imposition of vat in January. Most parents will be able to cobble together that to get them to the end of the school year. The impact on this cohort will be next year when they will be changing schools anyway. We will see how many go on to the linked senior school/other private schools or move to state.

Well it’s been 2 form at reception for years until now

I know one DC with SN who used to go to a state school before his parents sent him to a small private school because he couldn't cope in state school. They are now in debt and have no choice to take him out of private school after 4 years and put him back into a state school. He started today and his Mum told me he threatened to kill LL himself if he's bullied again. She's worried sick but her DH has had to give up work after a big heart attack and they have got in debt.

5 but school has said exactly what the increase will be and been very open in communication - so parents know where they stand

It's worth mentioning too that it's one of the cheaper schools not in London up north! I imagine it will not impact super rich in the slightest. So glad this is working to erm...make private school less elitist 🤷‍♀️

Two in just my daughter's fairly small friend group. School hasn't yet said what the impact will be, so I am expecting more if they announce more than about 5%. These pupils are year 10 so not a great time to move.

👏

Our close friends' kids (same age as ours) attended a good private school in a very affluent town. No problems with that at all, until universities started taking into account the achievements of pupils from state schools in poorer areas. Our friends' furious reaction to that made us see them in a very different light. Their children had had every educational and financial privilege, yet our friends clearly thought that they'd bought admission to the best universities too.

Their two actually ended up with lower A level and degree results than ours, but walked straight from uni into graduate jobs in the city, and were earning big salaries very quickly (one now a wealth manager living in Geneva). The connections that they made at their private school more than made up for any (unlikely) disadvantage on uni application. The School used to regularly hold events introducing their pupils to influential captains of industry, law, medicine etc. Turns out you don't have to be that academically successful of you have those connections in life.

Zero in DC year group - but that is because this is Year 11.

We had already previously decided DC will be going to state 6th form so the VAT thing hasn't changed our plans, merely put the final nail in the coffin. Straw poll among DC friend group suggests the majority will be doing the same. (Obviously plenty of children have moved to state 6th form historically but I wonder whether the numbers will be larger than before).

Straight through school. About a 1/3 have gone into state schools from Yr 6 to Yr 7 so a pretty dramatic shift on the usual 10%. Two were offered hefty bursaries and the places were still turned down in order to keep the younger siblings in the prep.

None.

I'm curious why year 1 over reception?

In my experience this is not the case - you need to fill at reception as beyond this it is just leavers and joiners due to changes in circumstance.

Most selective schools with a preschool entry point will retain the kids until year 1 at which point kids not as suited will begin to leave. (You need to be working to year 2 at year 1 to be able to pass any 10+ entrance exams)

This only applies to very academically pushy prep schools - most take their big intake at reception same as state schools

You know, I'm really far from being a sort of limp-wristed "Just Let the Kids Play All Day" educational hippy, but I have to say that if some prep schools are actually weeding out kids at age 6 on the grounds that they are not working a year ahead and that it's basically too late for them...what utterly bloody obnoxious institutions they must be.

I doubt schools like these are the ones that will see falling intakes. The big reductions will be at the small, non-famous private schools that are "nice" but whose offer is mostly about smarter facilities and small classes.

I don't know what the rules are in the UK, but surely if parents would normally be financially in a position to pay for private school, that means they are going to be a position to manage school transport by themselves and would not be eligible for demanding that the local government pays for it?

None, and new children joining in all years.

It's not means tested, and I wouldn't be surprised if parents did things like this out of protest, as their lives have been a bit upended by govt policy.

“Our close friends' kids (same age as ours) attended a good private school in a very affluent town. No problems with that at all, until universities started taking into account the achievements of pupils from state schools in poorer areas. Our friends' furious reaction to that made us see them in a very different light. Their children had had every educational and financial privilege, yet our friends clearly thought that they'd bought admission to the best universities too.

Their two actually ended up with lower A level and degree results than ours, but walked straight from uni into graduate jobs in the city, and were earning big salaries very quickly (one now a wealth manager living in Geneva). The connections that they made at their private school more than made up for any (unlikely) disadvantage on uni application. The School used to regularly hold events introducing their pupils to influential captains of industry, law, medicine etc. Turns out you don't have to be that academically successful of you have those connections in life.”

@saraclara - if life is all about “connections” why did your DC not make those connections at their top uni?

And if you believe that to be the case, why did you not send them to one of the many Russell Group unis full of private school kids to make those connections themselves?

Or, more likely, is that success further down the line has little to do with pure academic achievements and a lot to do with softer skills that the current state education system is failing to deliver for our children. The high focus on results at all costs at every stage (including uni) may be costing them the better jobs further down the line.

Have you seen what counts as a deprived area? DH does Russel group admissions. It’s a joke.

so yes, plenty of private kids who switch will be able to meet the criteria. A fair few will also meet the ‘has spent time in care’ criterion.