How many kids do you know definitely leaving private for state?

[Quodraceratops]

I'd be very interested to know how many children people know of who are definitely leaving their private school for a state school - not people with plans to do so in future years, solely those definitely going now / in 2025.
For myself - large Scottish all years school, I only have knowledge of my early primary kids's classes - no-one leaving so far (but I'm guessing early primary may be less affected as Labour have been signalling this policy for a while so you wouldn't start if you couldn't afford VAT).

I think the numbers being pulled out will be minimal due to if your already substantially invested in a few years education why pull out at the last leg of the race

the impact will be felt by the 1st intake going forward there’ll be a decline in kids initially being sent to private schools

Do you sit on admissions panels? The advice generally given by the admissions experts on MN is not to use a lawyer.

I'm not sure that is true around natural break points. My son has just gone into sixth form at a large London independent that is massively over subscribed normally (his sibling got 80% plus in entrance exams and never made it anywhere near top of wait list 2 years ago). His L6 form class is one kid down who just didn't show up, as are 4 other forms, 2, 2 down. So 6 kids out of 110. All but one have gone to local 'top in the country etc' grammar school whose waitlist moved in August. One has gone to a sixth form college. About 30 went to sixth form college after GCSEs, normally a handful do.

I think lots will switch at natural break points - Y6/Y7, Y8/Y9, GCSE/A Level - as well as those earlier on that won't start.

I applied for a sixth form place for mine, but there is no space this year. Sibling got in 2 years ago back in May, same address etc.

Araminta's world seems to be full of people who can't afford VAT but have the money to spend on stamp duty for purchasing a house in a more expensive catchment area and shelling out on lawyers. While reducing their hours at work or retiring from work altogether. (Either that or they are all going to go to Dubai)

In reality, we all know that the "modestly comfortably off" people who are the ones who will be forced out by VAT will mostly just put their child in the best state school that is available to them and spend money on tutoring. I doubt that either their presence at state schools or the money raised from other parents via VAT is going to do much to somehow rescue troubled sink schools (LOL), but I doubt that VAT is going to cause supervolcanoes to erupt either.

@GreenTeaLikesMe - it is not “my world’, I live in London with a lot of tiger parents who make choices quickly. Plenty of people who could afford VAT simply do not want to pay it so are changing course. They find the policy spiteful so they act accordingly. It is really not that difficult to understand, especially if they are not just British. Which most of these people are, European, Asian etc. They don’t get the British class war shite.

I live in a grammar area and dd passed 11+. If she had not already been bullied for her poor spelling in her state primary by all of the (very wealthy) children tutored from yr 1 to pass the 11+, she might have taken the place. Her confidence was shot and honestly I didn't want her to have to endure more of the same with the same group of stuck up bullies. One of them got her 3rd horse for her 13th...but my kid is the spoilt privately educated one, right?

I'm hoping beyond hope that dd will have picked up enough study skills to keep her scores up for A Level in the grammar system, which has on average 2 SEN kids in a year of 180 and no dyslexics we know of (getting extra time is an urban legend in this area, out of 9 dyslexic kids I know who took the test in the last 5 years not one has managed to get any extra time). It makes me so angry that just because parents in this area don't have dyslexic kids they perpetuate a system that silo's the kids away from each other. Me sending her private was the only option unless she went to a rough state - which is what you get in grammar areas, because of the GRAMMAR system, not the private system.

No one really knows what will happen. But the govt should have done a full risk/impact assessment and released their own analysis on the cost-benefit of this policy, given they had so much time to think about this and work on it. They haven't done this. They are instead relying only on one IFS report for estimated £ raised - and many in this group appear to quote this as gospel.

Here's another detailed analysis and critique of the policy which helped me understand this better. Please read it for yourselves, if only to ensure you aren't just reading one source about a policy.

www.adamsmith.org/research/vat-on-private-school-fees-adam-smith-institute-submission-to-hm-treasury-consultation?fbclid=IwY2xjawFY9k9leHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHeVvSUWIbCuxq5vcZlR_lvuigP4EUECeMdW3H9oQ3fxHK479LUzF7RcNHw_aem_IxpfZl3r-3wPFKYnBZVI8Q

I haven't read the whole thread, but from looking as the last few messages: I'm in London too. Possibly in a similar situation to Araminta, in that it's a very international social group, high income/high achieving. Many of our work colleagues and friends have children in schools like the Japanese school, the German Schule in Richmond, the French lycees etc as they want their children educated in home school systems as they will eventually go "back home" for universities etc. This tax will hit them too, and there is real surprise and anger that a government would actually tax education. It's not realistic for their children to join the UK state system at all, so they have no dog in this fight but are collateral damage anyway.

2/3 left in my child's year to go back to state primaries. The class has spaces now, it was previously running a waiting list.
A few friends also moving children from indy to state for 6th form

So they would put their DC in state school (awful thought!), and possibly move house, even though they could afford the VAT?

Sounds like cutting off your nose to spite your face.

Or, very unlikely.

Take your pick.

@Baital - it is at 11 plus and 16 plus that they are moving, and there are a lot of them! At 16 plus, they will have strings of great grades and will get the best places in our local Sixth Forms. All our local schools are GCSE grades-based entry and at that age, there is still a massive scramble for places. I expect bulge years.

Really? All the state sixth forms near us prioritise their existing pupils moving into sixth form. Pupils from other schools can apply for the remaining places.

Probably depends on the area, but yes, our local schools in my hometown also prioritize their own kids when it comes to 6th form. It's why my sister chose a secondary school with a 6th form, even though it was further away from her than the other local secondary which ends at 16.

I do think sixth form is the one area where there might be some strain re numbers, simply because the private % is so much higher, but then at least 16yos are in more of a position to travel further afield if necessary.

Near me the state sixth forms have minimum grades for most A-level subjects e.g. 6 for sciences and maths. Some more selective ones ask for a 7 for sciences and maths so there is always room in these subjects at a state school as not enough of their own students will get these grades. Each student comes with money for the sixth form, so most state schools will want the extra students even if it means larger classes. The key question is whether the vat increase brings in more money versus the cost of educating more students in state schools.

@greentealikesme I do agree there will be the most strain on numbers at sixth form as this is where normally some students move from state to private. It is also where there is a bulge in the student population. However, state schools will probably just choose those with better grades if they can as this affects league tables.

Not sure how many are leaving but my daughters' private school have seen a sharp decrease in Y7 intake this year. When my eldest started two years ago there were 70 in her year group, this year my younger daughter is starting with 44 in hers.

Of course it is realistic for their children to join the U.K. state system! If you are living in the U.K. and your kids are living in the U.K., sending your children to the U.K. state system is utterly normal. Insane to think otherwise.

If someone is planning to do a 2-5 year stint in the UK and then return to their own country they would obviously want to keep their school age children within their country's curriculum.

Can't you see that if you brought your DC back to the UK in year 11, they would be hugely disadvantaged if they had followed the US or French curriculum for the last 3 years. Maybe you're not aware quite how different the curriculum is in different countries.

This is my experience too.
Year 7 at my daughter’s school has 3 classes of 17 this year, previously it has been 4 classes of 20.

Even if they stay longer, if the child intends to go to University in their country of origin (very likely for expats from the US in particular) then they'll be disadvantaged if they don't have qualifications the University is familiar with.

Of course the universities accept qualifications from different countries, but it's harder.

It's not that easy, certainly not if the family is basically short-term expats rather than permanent immigrants. A French speaking teenager who has been brought to the UK a couple of years ago and whose English may not be very fluent because they are operating mostly in French, both at home and at school, would be at a real disadvantage if they were to try to switch to the English system. And it's debatable if it's worth it, if the plan is to take them back to France in a year or two anyway.

I agree but I imagine the government is not that worried about them.

People in that situation are often in very senior positions, with their companies managing their relocation costs and often school fees.

My friends in this position have always negotiated school fees as part of the agreement

You're right, people in very senior positions on a company-sponsored secondment will be unaffected since the company will pay the fees. The companies will be a bit pissed off, but will pay it.

But London especially has a lot of experienced professionals with a shortage skill who just fancy some time living in the UK. They contribute significantly to UK productivity.

People seem to think that the UK is just entitled in perpetuity to this marvelous standard of living - better than 90% of the world - without stopping to think why we're a rich country. Or whether our actions retain or degrade that privilege. Over a 20 years timescale. Or 50 years.

I kind of understand why citizens don't think about it much. But this is literally the government's job. It's unforgivable for them not to analyse consequences of their policies.

Exactly, and the likely extra bulge in applications due to this policy, on top of the existing bulge in these year groups, is my main concern for DC going into sixth form.

@strawberrybubblegum I totally agree, but I'd start with rejoining the single market. Not sure this will matter one way or the other.

The problem with our country is not that we have not been attractive to rich people, it's that everyone and everything else has been so neglected noone wants to come.

Add in the years of public hostility and hate to foreigners and it's no surprise.