How many kids do you know definitely leaving private for state?

[Quodraceratops]

I'd be very interested to know how many children people know of who are definitely leaving their private school for a state school - not people with plans to do so in future years, solely those definitely going now / in 2025.
For myself - large Scottish all years school, I only have knowledge of my early primary kids's classes - no-one leaving so far (but I'm guessing early primary may be less affected as Labour have been signalling this policy for a while so you wouldn't start if you couldn't afford VAT).

I don’t understand what this will do to improve the State Sector

It will improve the numbers. Let's take A-levels:

We have two groups

• Group S, 80 kids, 74% receive grades A*-C or above (I averaged state sector)
• Group P, 20 kids, 90% achieve grade A*-C

Gap in A-level results between state and private schools widens | The Independent
20% of kids in Six form are in private.

Now 5 kids from Group P move to Group S. Given that those marginal parents who stretched themselves too thin to give their kids presumably the best education in private but are now forced to move will pull everything to support kids with tutoring, coaching etc etc. These kids will get the same grades just reclassified as Group S.

So we now have 85 kids in Group S, their new average is 75%. Yay! State education improved, policy working!!!

Apart from for each individual child results haven't changed, it's just numbers now look different.

Yes, that's what I'm saying. There's a reason why top sets are often twice the size of bottom sets.

So the numbers look better but the policy is still not improving outcomes for most children then.

Also to add. The number leaving may be irrelevant depending on the school.
it could be only 1 kid leaving. But if that 1 child tips the balance making a school financially unsustainable, the whole school goes under. Leaving many more children needing a place.

Example in Nottingham. Numbers down (link below) 25% returning this Sept and they are now £10k a month in the red against operating costs. 55 children at risk of losing their school.
Nottingham CC don’t have 55 primary places available, easily viewable with their online place finder.
There aren’t loads of other independent schools in Nottm for kids to move to, and they are a third more in cost than this one.

So you’d think maybe Nottm CC should buy the school from the private owners and run it as a state school?
However they are a Section 114 ‘bankrupt’ Council creating huge restrictions on capital spending. If they could swing it, it’s going to be a time-consuming, difficult and costly process.

Who’s paying and how does this kind of potential huge cost impact on the potential extra VAT? It’s all negating any positive benefit.

1 City. 1 School.
By all means if you want to think “it’s only 1 child” that’s fine, but it’s not that simple.

Source: www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp68g3wgr2ro.amp

The fees are £8k a year!! With a 20% off for a second child and 30% off for a third.

They were going to be in a financially precarious position with the COL crisis in general.

Most private schools are closer to £8k a term.

I agree that £8k a year is cheaper but most private schools are not £8k a term, especially not at primary level. I was paying £13k for private primary in the SE earlier this year.

Well yes precisely. Those 55 kids are highly likely to need a State place. They are unlikely to be families that can stump up £8k a term but wanted a different education for their child and could afford to pay something towards that.

Some private schools operate on very slim margins and make little/no profit.

This is exactly the type of families and schools this policy is going to hurt not anyone at Eton etc. So maybe if some could stop it with the “poor little rich kids” nonsense that some people are spouting as it really isn’t representative of all private school customers!

Edit for context: My children don’t go to this school, but we are in the same city. Theirs is approx £4K a term so much less than the numbers you quote!

Are there any local authorities buying schools now? It would be a MAT surely who would buy empty schools.

My child is in y4 and I’m about to do the open day circuit. Pre-vat we were keen to push for private. I may still try and do that but am seeing a number of schools including the state to start getting a clear view of ROi. People who I thought would go private have said vat has made them more likely to go for state now but none of us like the state option for secondary. I am however much more likely to look at state for 6th form. For two children that could be a saving of £120k so would be a significant chunk off the overall bill.

Money we save on fees would be going into paying off the mortgage or savings or on reducing down working hours/level of job stress. We really are at a bit of a cross roads and wavering re whether to go private or not.

There do seem to be some posters who think catchment areas will not apply to children moving from private to state. At least one poster has said that overtly. I am not sure where this idea came from......

There do seem to be some posters who think catchment areas will not apply to children moving from private to state.

I don't know where all the houses just waiting to be bought in the catchment areas are going to come from either. And presumably if you're buying a house you also need to sell your house as well, unless you can afford to run two houses in which case you could probably afford the VAT.

OFSTED one word ratings are going so all this talk of taking Outstanding or Good places will soon be irrelevant (they were always a shaky way of choosing a school IMO anyway, there are a couple of Good schools locally that I wouldn't have touched with a bargepole). In the real world as opposed to the MN world, most people that I know chose their child's school based on where friends were going, transport logistics and sibling's experience.

Also not relying on a single word OFSTED report! What is 'good' or 'outstanding ' for one child won't be good for another.

It's a bit sad that some parents take that single word as definitive.

Noone thinks that catchment areas / distance criteria don't apply to children moving from private to state.

But we're pointing out the consequences over a longer period of time: where families choose where to buy a house based on school choices for children not yet at that education stage. Not just the next 6 months.

I would hope that the government would likewise be analysing the long-term viability of the policy, not just a brief windfall. But maybe I'm overly optimistic.

Contrary to what many may believe, those with children in private schools do actually do their research when making decisions on big things like house moves.

Ofsted reports had absolutely no impact when we chose to move house to be nearer a specific school. The only requirement was that there was no major failure highlighted. Like most other parents, we spoke to parents with children at the school to find out more, attended open days to meet current students and looked at subject options to see if the school would be a good fit for our children. We looked at staff retention, school results plus the general ethos of the school as well as considering how this has been over the past 5-10 years.

Funnily enough, when viewing private schools parents are also making choices without single word Ofsted reports.

Yes there are a minority of posters who are private school parents spouting all sorts of assumptions which are wildly inaccurate...there are just as many (if not more) state school parents posting just as much shit. The reality is the children who move from private to state have parents who are heavily invested in their education and the financial means to ensure their child gets the best state education they can facilitate. They won't be starting at the failing schools where most children leave without GCSEs or knife and drug crime is rife. They will be making careful calculated decisions which will result in this policy making a net loss in the longer term.

@strawberrybubblegum "
Noone thinks that catchment areas / distance criteria don't apply to children moving from private to state"

There is a poster on here who says in terms that state schools will bend the rules because ex private school pupils are so desirable. Obviously this is not a universally held view. But if there is one there will be more.

Schools can't 'bend the rules' against their published admissions criteria.

I remember reading one poster who seemed to believe that.

I agree with @morechocolateneededtoday :
"Yes there are a minority of posters who are private school parents spouting all sorts of assumptions which are wildly inaccurate...there are just as many (if not more) state school parents posting just as much shit"

There are always going to be a few people with extreme/outlying opinions. That doesn't affect the validity of the main arguments.

Exactly this.

It is not about bending the rules but there is a legal right of appeal and if someone can show that the detriment to the child is greater than the school, in admitting that extra pupil, then they can get in on appeal. What type of schools do you all think offer some of the subjects that only private schools do or offer an extensive co-curricular music programme etc. It tends to be the best state schools and some PS parents may be able to appeal.

Also, why would a whole lot of angry ex PS parents not appeal and pay the best lawyer to do exactly that? One cannot have it both ways.

If the Government were to chuck my kid out of their state school with an unfair sudden tax policy, then I would most definitely pull out all stops to do whatever I can to stop that from happening or get them into another school on appeal.

But that’s not bending the rules, that’s following a process.

@noblegiraffe - it is a process that favours those in the know and with money to spend on legal fees.

Lawyers are not needed to conduct school appeals. There is often a suggestion that engaging a lawyer can be a negative thing to do.

If you are able to justify that your child needs a certain school, then you will get in on appeal. That does not affect any other child who is already at the school or any other child who might appeal.

The private school parents who are planning to move their children into the state sector will be following the necessary process and ensuring they legitimately get the place, not bending rules or expecting special treatment.

Of course there are a few who believe their child is 'extra special' and schools will bend over for them. They are the ones who (ime) went private without considering the state system and will be sucking up the vat and paying it anyway. We have a couple in our school (thankfully the minority by a long way) - encouraged all to apply for state places in protest of vat. They didn't have an answer on what to do when their child is offered a place at the nearest school as they have no intention to move them or how this would be any sort of protest when inevitably turn it down. I just smile and ignore....

@redskydarknight - plenty of people get a lawyer to prepare all the arguments for them and then they go themselves, in person.