How many kids do you know definitely leaving private for state?

[Quodraceratops]

I'd be very interested to know how many children people know of who are definitely leaving their private school for a state school - not people with plans to do so in future years, solely those definitely going now / in 2025.
For myself - large Scottish all years school, I only have knowledge of my early primary kids's classes - no-one leaving so far (but I'm guessing early primary may be less affected as Labour have been signalling this policy for a while so you wouldn't start if you couldn't afford VAT).

There are actually.
https://blog.pearsoninternationalschools.com/the-big-debate-should-sets-be-banned/

This is an example
"The overall conclusion seems to be that while attainment grouping can give top set students an edge, it disadvantages middle and bottom set students, and does not raise achievement overall. What’s more, it can result in behavioural and emotional problems for children in low sets. Learning in mixed ability groups, on the other hand, led to higher performance for the vast majority of students, and a healthier emotional environment, with less stress and fewer self esteem issues for all students.

Academic Jo Boaler, an expert on mathematics education, points out, “88% of children placed into sets or streams at age 4 remain in the same groupings until they leave school. This is one of the most chilling statistics I have ever read. The fact that our children’s future is decided for them by the time they are 4 years old derides the work of schools and contravenes basic knowledge about child development and learning.”

Finland is an often referred to example of education excellence, with consistently high levels of attainment in numeracy and literacy. In Finnish schools, streaming is banned. Educational equality is the primary driver behind education policy, and all classes are mixed level. Interestingly, that has led to one of the most highly educated populations in the world.
"

Let's agree to disagree and see how VAT will improve state provision very soon 😁

This was in response to a post about super selectives where everyone is very bright and an odd mark matters, and I would be extremely surprised if anyone turns up having done no preparation at all as the poster had claimed her DC had managed to do (a few years ago).

"Normal" grammars, there is a bit more chance.

@LaerealSilverhand Are you in a non-grammar county? If so, I can probably guess which one.

The problem with the grammar system is that whilst the the lower performing children at grammar do marginally better than in a comprehensive system, those children that are essentially sent to secondary moderns have worse outcomes than they would have had in a comprehensive system. For grammar school supporters, marginal gains for the lower performers in the grammar cohort far outweighs the detrimental effect to the non grammar children.

Results are not the only consideration though. I went to a highly regarded comp but it wasn’t suitable for my needs. This is what a lot of people (including teachers) can’t get their heads around.

I know 1 coming out of prep, and 2 out of senior into state.

The much bigger impact I've already seen though is reduction in wider spending by private families. Meeting at the park? They're bringing their own coffee not buying it at the cafe. Not going out for dinner, meeting at each others' houses. Will be interesting to talk to friends who are eg hairdressers to see if they're cutting back on things like that. People can only spend each £1 once. Yes, they're lucky to have things they can cut back on, of course they are, but this is money coming out of the local community and going to government. I guess it's a philosophical point on whether you see that as a good or bad thing on a macro level...

For what it's worth, there's no grammar schools in my area and the state schools are fuller than full. So people are doing what I'd expect which is to cut everything last bit of expenditure to the bone to protect the ability to pay fees.

I am that poster 😂
It is possible to do with no prep for high functioning ASD - there are lots of them in STEM heavy super selective grammars and they thrive there. The exam starts with VR/NVR/maths which many HFA people can do with no prep whatsoever and in half the time. It's simply how their brain works and has nothing to do with being "clever" or "not clever" or being tutored.

I'm surprised people are extremely surprised at this very basic and well known fact.

NB I'm not saying all children in super selective grammars have ASD and I know grammars differ too.

Absolutely this.

But that will be offset by all the people leaving private completely and then having £15k a year to spend at the hairdressers and the cafe.

I imagine it will all even out.

No they will be putting it into their pensions or paying extra of their mortgages (or cutting their hours).

Maybe, only time will tell. My experience is very few coming out, but lots and lots of people staying in private and cutting right back.

Personally, if I was forced out of private by this government, I'd be looking for ways to spend it overseas, not here.

And yes, good point, I'd be cutting my work hours right back.

The only research paper cited there is looking at attainment aged 7 years so whilst concerning it doesn't show final attainment- and Finland scored lower than England on maths & reading on PISA 2022.

No one has said my posts are rude and offensive to children and aside from trolling being against the T&C, it has rather just come across as you making stupid points.

I have found the VR/NVR thing quite interesting.

DD (severely dyslexic and ADHD) absolutely aces NVR and isn't far behind on VR with zero coaching of any kind.

Yet she was on track to fail SATs at primary, cannot spell at all, finds reading hard and is definitely not top set maths (although was put there based on CAT4 tests... and rapidly moved).

Or even more likely spending it on tutors and extra curricular.

Surely calling people's posts stupid is neither rude nor offensive. Please feel free to report my posts as being in breach of T&C 😁

Yes, this is not uncommon although "patterns" may vary a lot.
Grammars know their intake and I found my DC's grammar very supportive of their needs even though very intense academically. Two things are not mutually exclusive as well as being disabled and gifted are not mutually exclusive either.

None

A few more anecdotes…

• I’m in a group for marketing professionals from a range of sectors. Several work for independent schools and there have been recent posts along the lines of “any suggestions of what we can do as numbers at our open days are way down.”
• I have a year 6 in independent and are currently attending open days for local state schools. So are approx 10 of my daughter’s classmates. These are good/outstanding catchment schools that they will get places at to the detriment of kids that wouldn’t have ever had private as an option.
• We don’t have grammar schools here at all. But the top schools offer selective places via music/sport/science ability to kids that should be lower down on the admission criteria. Kids moving from independent are being coached to score well in these assessments where the private school knows they will have to move to state. Again reducing access to these mostly Outstanding State schools for kids that have had less opportunities in life.
• If parents pay the school VAT, all but the very wealthy are likely to reduce spending on other luxury VAT-able items negating the VAT income from school fees.

By the time this shakes out in 3-4 years the private sector will have vastly shrunk, but this doesn’t necessarily mean the state sector will have improved!
Aside from the policy possibly creating a surplus, I don’t understand what this will do to improve the State Sector. The parents are no different to the majority of state parents who are invested in their children. Many of whom have tried to get change while their kids were in the state sector and given it up as an impossible task.

It was a topic of conversation at swimming this week, a number are reconsidering senior school now which is interesting (where fees are now £36k for day).

It felt like they were “testing the water” excuse the pun. If one family jumps to state others will follow. But none are quite saying it yet. These are all families with multiple kids in prep/pre-prep where they have one near the transition point to senior.

We do have very good state options here though to be fair and there’s a grammar about 30 mins away in next county.

Shrinking the private sector will bring down the standard of education as a whole. It will be more “fair” but at a lower standard overall.

It will be hard to demonstrate this because there will be fewer private schools as counter examples and the ones that endure will be more rarified.

State school teachers will be delighted. No competition, no benchmark.

I don't think a private school that selects only the brightest and richest is really any sort of benchmark. That's playing education on 'easy' mode...

noblegiraffe · Today 18:12
I don't think a private school that selects only the brightest and richest is really any sort of benchmark. That's playing education on 'easy' mode

I don’t understand this comment. Are you saying clever rich children are easier to educate than not clever, not rich children?
According to quite a few posters on mumsnet, private school children are spoilt and entitled - surely they’d be quite hard to teach?