How many kids do you know definitely leaving private for state?

[Quodraceratops]

I'd be very interested to know how many children people know of who are definitely leaving their private school for a state school - not people with plans to do so in future years, solely those definitely going now / in 2025.
For myself - large Scottish all years school, I only have knowledge of my early primary kids's classes - no-one leaving so far (but I'm guessing early primary may be less affected as Labour have been signalling this policy for a while so you wouldn't start if you couldn't afford VAT).

Ihave two children in primary with class
sizes at the end of last year of 13 and 14 children. One child left from my child’s year 2 class but they said it was nothing to do with fees. So 1/27 children.

got a child in y6, small school, and several others are planning to try and go state for secondary. got another in y11, big school, and it's harder to say, as don't talk to the parents as much. there's always a cohort that move to the state sixth form colleges anyway (including one excellent one), and its inevitable that there will be more and greater competition for places.

We’re in pre prep so far none. Not surprising since the fees are the cheapest in the school and people who enter their children at pre prep tend to commit to private throughout their children’s education.

I fully expect numbers to fall at natural break points eg. Moving to prep and seniors where the fees easily double. I know families who can afford pre-prep but prep fees with VAT will be out of their budget.

I also expect a smaller intake further up the school with people choosing to state educate until the the exam years when there could be an increase from families who would have entered the private system earlier but the VAT has deterred them.

Its not a policy which will see immediate behaviour change except from those already struggling but over the course of 10 years the private sector will naturally become much smaller as the full impact of the policy becomes evident.

This isn’t my policy, I’m not particularly convinced about it either way. What is pissing me off, however, is the amount of frothing about how this policy is going to ruin the state sector. Posters talking about large class sizes, lack of teachers etc and how this will be the thing to push them over the edge. Fuck off. This is coming from people who didn’t give the shiniest shit about state education being ground into dust over the last 14 years until it could possibly be used as an argument to support them saving some money.

I agree Noble, it's like state school parents are supposed to be worried that somehow our kids will never be able to compete with ex private school kids so we should be supportive of PSs remaining VAT free to avoid the competition that our kids cannot hope to win. Well guess what, my DD is perfectly capable of competing academically with private school kids. And that's true of many of the kids in my area.

I think what a lot of private school parents don't take into account is that a lot of people could afford to go private but choose not to because they have different priorities in life. We could have afforded it and judging by the houses/cars/jobs of the parents of many other kids that we know, so could a lot of them, but instead we sent them to the local primary and secondary and they've all done fine. Without school fees we can afford to help DD with Uni and house deposits and if need be we could have afforded to move house just like those private school parents.

It would be great for you both to point us to the many posts that supposedly speak about this issue pushing state schools over the edge or the so called 'collapse' of state schools.

I have read many of the threads and posted on a few. The majority of poster (myself included) have repeatedly pointed out that this policy is not going to improve the dire situation that is state school funding and that, in the long term, it will cost more than it raises. We have pointed out there are no winners in pitting people against each other and the bigger issue is that the new government is yet to come up with a proper income source to address the huge deficits in the state sector. The IFS themselves have already admitted their report is outdated and yet the government are hellbent on pushing it through without an impact assessment.

The parents who 'could have afforded private but chose not to' are unaffected and will remain in the same position.

The other parents who are (rightly) vocal about this are those who's children have SEN, have been failed by the inadequate state system and are spending every penny they have to give them an education where they feel supported. They simply cannot stretch to afford 20% no matter what they do and private schools were not on their radar from the outset. And my heart goes out to them the most. The others will do what they have to do and their children will be fine

@morechocolateneededtoday are you against the VAT in general,or just for SEN students? Because I think this is a wedge issue.

It will not cost more than it raises. State school capacity can easily absorb the excess - demographics ensure that's the case.

Parents have absorbed large increases in fees over the years without it affecting numbers at all.

If you have a more recent IFS analysis, by all means share it.

It would be great for you both to point us to the many posts that supposedly speak about this issue pushing state schools over the edge or the so called 'collapse' of state schools.

Plenty of posters over all these tedious threads have posted stuff basically saying to state school parents 'see look what you're making me do, here's how it will affect your kids', see this from above

Maybe the state school parents should give a Damn if the private parents cease to be able to pay. I’m sure that the area where all the privates are concentrated would kill for a massive influx of ADHD and ASD kids into the classrooms.

Maybe the state school parents will also care if the local private shut its doors and therefore removes the access to its pool/facilities for the neighbouring state schools.

Maybe the state parents who can’t afford the house near to the school should care that the private parents can easily outbid them for those houses and all the surrounding ones. And will.

Maybe the state school parents should wonder whether the total tax take will drop when the mothers (let’s be honest it won’t be the dads) go part time because they don’t have to pay fees now but do need to be able to cart the kids around to their extracurriculars (which used to be available for the state school kids but private parents clearly have sharp elbows).

It is a big deal to move from private to state. The two are very different beasts. But people will do what they have to, and will make sure it’s not their kid who suffers.

I don't believe state schools will collapse, they'll just carry on as before. As a few people have said, in a lot of areas there are places in schools. I don't know who the post that I've quoted above is actually aimed at, but the people who it will scare are those with ASD/ADHD kids currently at private school. Some state schools are actually brilliant at educating those kids, but there are no guarantees that the ex private school kids will get into those schools. Their parents might not even know to apply for them because guess what, they may not be rated Outstanding. And the schools that aren't brilliant at it, well the parents of the ASD/ADHD kids are already used to getting fuck all help.

My post does not say state schools will collapse. Please actually read it. It says private schools could. Which is true.

it does point out, repeatedly, that chucking more kids into an overburdened state system as well as removing access to certain facilities that the privates provide isn’t going to result is a good education for those kids. It won’t make the state schools any better. Adding more kids into a system that is performing poorly, without a massive increase in resources (which this won’t provide) is a dumb idea.

O please, what facilities? In London we have plenty of public pools, tennis courts and whatever and private schools often use publuc facilities for sports.

How nice for you in London. That well resourced place where even the secondary schools get far more than the rest of the country per pupil…

Life is a bit different in other places.

My post does not say state schools will collapse. Please actually read it. It says private schools could. Which is true.

I didn't say you did. The 'collapse' was aimed at the poster who questioned me and as I said, I don't think they will collapse either. Who was your post aimed at exactly? Because to me that was aimed at state school parents in an attempt to make them worry.

I think some private schools will definitely close, some preps closed over summer. But they're a business and businesses fail all the time.

it does point out, repeatedly, that chucking more kids into an overburdened state system as well as removing access to certain facilities that the privates provide isn’t going to result is a good education for those kids. It won’t make the state schools any better. Adding more kids into a system that is performing poorly, without a massive increase in resources (which this won’t provide) is a dumb idea.

We don't know that. Many people are saying that having highly engaged parents is a good thing for state schools. Money wise who knows whether it will be a good thing. Currently more bums on seats means more funding for a school. And I guess all those parents moving into the desirable catchment areas will be paying stamp duty.

It would be great for you both to point us to the many posts that supposedly speak about this issue pushing state schools over the edge or the so called 'collapse' of state schools.

You haven't seen the posts about the 'influx' of private school kids to state schools and how will state schools cope when class sizes have to double? Or the ones like the one quoted above where there'll be a massive influx of kids with SEN?

I suppose you also haven't seen the stupid threads where they try to whip up all private school parents to apply for state school places to overwhelm the admissions system either.

There have been plenty of posts trying to whip up hysteria about the doom that this will spell for state schools. There was one post that said something like 'all the state school teachers I know are losing sleep over this' so I asked around and all the state school teachers I know said 'wtf, not even on my radar'.

Yes in our area there are very few sports facilities for local young people.

We have a prep school in our village which has swimming pool, tennis courts and a golf course. It even has its own Beavers and Cubs packs in a special 'forest school' so they don't have to go near the local sweaty scout hut with the rest of the locals. Horse riding is also an option.

None of these are made available to the local community at any point.

No scholarships or discounts for 'sporting excellence' and bursaries are available in 'very exceptional circumstances' from year 5 but not guaranteed year on year.

Good luck to them, and I have many friends there who have had a lovely time. But it is not contributing much to society and they stump up the tax just like they do on everything else.

Also, in terms of SEN provision etc, I don't doubt it. However, in my circle of friends the private schools have been pretty abysmal dealing with mental health issues and in numerous cases have 'suggested' the children leave the school.

Quite. There is no state provision whatsoever for vocational classical ballet training. Plenty for art and music, but ballet - nope. Nothing.

We could have afforded it and judging by the houses/cars/jobs of the parents of many other kids that we know, so could a lot of them, but instead we sent them to the local primary and secondary

Well perhaps you are the very people who ought to be paying even more then for the state benefit you could have otherwise afforded not to use.

What? They are paying more, through their income tax and all the VAT/road tax/duty they are paying on the things that aren't school fees.

Or they put more money in pensions, spend it on things that aren't VATable. If I move my DC to state school, and use 14k of state benefit AND don't pay VAT but increase my pension contributions, how am I doing anyone a favour?

@Hattieho
or even better - my DC going to grammar despite having a place at a very selective PS and I now retire many years earlier than planned. My job is going abroad. HMRC is losing tens of k of my tax and will pay for my DC education.

We should all be encouraged to pay into pensions because then you'll be able to afford your own care home fees when you're old.

And it's a self-defeating argument.

You're either barely scraping together the school fees and the VAT will tip you over the edge and force you into state, or it's just spare cash sloshing about which you could piss up the wall in the Maldives, in which case your children will probably stay put.

Yep we will stay put till grammar school and then we'll definitely be hitting the Maldives!

I'm not sure those on the left would be disappointed to hear that fewer children will be going to private school.

But this is the levelling down thing all over again. If every child can't have proper lunch breaks and decent food and warm classrooms, then no child should be able to - is that your argument? If I actually thought that putting VAT on private school fees would make a significant difference to state school funding, then I'd be less cross about it (though to be honest I would still have a fundamental problem with any form of tax on education, as a matter of principle). But I don't believe that it will - and I don't think Labour really do either. I think that all that will happen, is that education will become worse for more children - whether through state schools having to absorb more students in areas where they're already under pressure, or through children having to move away from schools where they're happy, or through private schools having to cut those things that really enhance the education they provide (like long lunch hours and modern language choice and lots of sport, or whatever). Who wins here?

I'm not whether you're agreeing with my point or not ...

I don't care whether you spend the money on school fees or a holiday. Enjoy?

If every child can't have proper lunch breaks and decent food and warm classrooms, then no child should be able to - is that your argument?

No. the pp was claiming that the government, by telling private schools to cut costs, was demanding redundancies, suggesting that the only way to save money is to get rid of staff. So I suggested a few ways that my school and others have had to cut costs over the last few years.

I'm glad you're not happy at the thought of kids not having a proper lunch break, decent food or a warm classroom. Those things are probably even more important to kids coming from disadvantaged homes, right? So yeah, I will roll my eyes if private schools suggest that they simply cannot cut costs and are running on bare bones budgets when their funding is so much higher than state schools.

Where I live the two 'Good' schools (also the only schools) have been run into the ground by the MAT that took them over a few years ago.