How many kids do you know definitely leaving private for state?

[Quodraceratops]

I'd be very interested to know how many children people know of who are definitely leaving their private school for a state school - not people with plans to do so in future years, solely those definitely going now / in 2025.
For myself - large Scottish all years school, I only have knowledge of my early primary kids's classes - no-one leaving so far (but I'm guessing early primary may be less affected as Labour have been signalling this policy for a while so you wouldn't start if you couldn't afford VAT).

@noblegiraffe I agree with you. They could cut costs. But to cut costs significantly, they would have to compromise on provision (whether by cutting teaching or by increasing class sizes or by cutting the nice-to-haves like good food). And for a start that would be a short term fix, because people will stop paying for private education if they don't feel it's providing anything different, so those schools would ultimately close anyway. But the main point is that they don't want to - because they want to keep the standard of education as high as possible (and by education I mean education holistically, to include good food and lots of lunchtime clubs etc etc). I know that state schools have had to do this. I hate that state schools have had to do this (and my children spent years in state education, so that's not just crocodile tears). But what I don't understand is why making private schools do this too is a good thing, if it's ultimately not going to make any significant improvement to the education of the 93%.

Or there's the alternative where families who are currently blithely going 'oh I'll send my kids to state school and then spend the money saved on fancy holidays' will actually take a look at their kid who can't write in the classroom in the winter because their hands are too cold and decide that actually they should cut costs as a family (or increase income) to afford the private school that actually has the heating on.

People on here will insist that the calculations only run one way, but it's not that straightforward, is it?

I desperately want to know where you work Noblegiraffe - your experiences just bear no resemblance to the reality of state schools around where I live (a shabby part of east London).

It always sounds like the apocalypse where you are!

No, that's true. It wouldn't surprise me at all if some of those who leave PS due to VAT subsequently find a way to return. But there'll be a fair few schools which will have folded by then. And although I know many Labour voters won't shed too many tears about that, you as a teacher must know the not insignificant trauma and workload that that process will cause to current students, parents, teachers, senior leaders and governors in every school that has to close. I doubt that you, as a teacher, would rejoice in that.

Are you familiar with the grammar schools in Kent where I live? You seem to be describing something entirely different.

And yes I can afford the VAT - but I don't agree with it and so I will opt out of private for secondary. It's as simple as that.

Not London.

And I know teachers in other parts of the country who also teach in ridiculously cold (or hot in the summer) classrooms. It's a real issue that affects teaching and learning for a substantial part of the year.

I do know that most kids in Kent don't go to a grammar. I also know a little bit about the state of those other schools.

I grew up in kent myself and went to grammar myself - so that's fortunately a good option for us.

Thank you.

Parents don't choose grammars, grammars choose their pupils though.

Some who may be banking on grammars (not saying this is you) may find themselves reconsidering private when their child doesn't pass the test.

I wonder if fewer parents being able to access private schools will create demand for the expansion of grammar schools?

I understand your point- you've got to be pretty confident that they'll pass to plan for that option.

Why would anyone want to increase the number of grammar schools?

They do nothing for social mobility and are detrimental to the education of the children that are effectively sent to a secondary modern.

Fuck no. We went through all that with Theresa May and it's part of the reason she lost her majority. Parents don't want the expansion of secondary moderns.

Bear in mind that the person who personally signed off for more comprehensivizations of grammar schools and secondary moderns, more than any other person, was….Margaret Thatcher, as Education secretary.

Neither she nor her government wanted to comprehensivize 11 Plus areas, but she and her government were essentially forced to, because of the relentless pressure of parents in these areas who were fed up with the system.

Everyone likes the idea of grammar schools, until it is pointed out that the unavoidable Yang of that Ying is the creation of secondary moderns, and that their kid might end up in one if they have a bad day on the test.

Trauma?

Please!

Changing schools may be unpleasant. But it is not in the same category as chronic neglect/abuse.

I said this upthread, but: If anything, I think we will see changes to the selection rules (in the direction of favoring kids from low income backgrounds), in the next few years, if we do see a trend of loads of “parents who would have chosen private schools” crowding their kids into the grammars, as is being threatened here.

Because the (not very convincing) case for the 11 plus has always been that it supposedly creates all this amazing social mobility for “rough but bright” children. Grammar schools that are even more full of “prep school kids” are going to be really fucking bad optics for those who try to make those arguments.

Again, repeating myself, but part of the reason why there has been an increase in the tendency for universities to “contextualize” offers from state school kids vs private school a little bit, is almost certainly because so many private schools were visibly greedy during covid, and plumped up their kids’ grades far more than the state schools did. Honestly, it was bloody ugly behavior. And I say that as someone who has used private and state schooling for both her kids!

The popularity of grammar schools merely underlines the fact that a lot of private schools could be cutting costs - it is clear that there are plenty of parents who would be happy to pay for private schools with bigger classes and less extravagant facilities.

3 children left DD’s class end of summer term, no new members have joined her class so far. 1 child’s family emigrated, 1 child going to a larger prep school and 1 child going to a state school.

Two in dc's year. We have a very small group just started though, so I think more people will simply not send younger children and try to keep older dc in. We are doing that and I know another 2 families doing the same.

Hardly. Every child forced to move is suffering unnecessarily. Plus, .most schools have not even declared how fees will be affected yet and many parents are pinning hopes on the legal challenge.

People "whinged" because it is extremely stressful for both parents and children and the damage is only just beginning.

Honestly, my heart bleeds. State school children never have to change schools because of a change in circumstances.

It’s a manifesto commitment, and the legal challenge will likely fail.

Have you considered cutting back on takeaway coffee, holidays and avocado toast?

It is not means tested and we will absolutely be claiming it. If we are forced into the position of sending dc to a school we would never have chosen, I don't see why we should pay for the privilege.

You need to get over yourself @Snugglemonkey . Your children are potentially going to a local school and you are making it very clear that you totally disapprove of it. That’s not going to be doing them any favours.
What is it you’re frightened of? If you could explore your fears you might be able to address them. Do you think poverty’s catching? Are you worried that if you don’t pay for it your children won’t be able to fulfil their potential? There’s nothing to worry about - children from a supportive, stable home who work in harmony with the school will be fine. Academically. Socially if you continue to scorn their classmates life could well be quite difficult for them.

Lots in Year 11 wont continue to privately educate for 6th form.