How many kids do you know definitely leaving private for state?

[Quodraceratops]

I'd be very interested to know how many children people know of who are definitely leaving their private school for a state school - not people with plans to do so in future years, solely those definitely going now / in 2025.
For myself - large Scottish all years school, I only have knowledge of my early primary kids's classes - no-one leaving so far (but I'm guessing early primary may be less affected as Labour have been signalling this policy for a while so you wouldn't start if you couldn't afford VAT).

So people will simply purchase the rest.

I mean, they were already purchasing it. 🤷‍♀️ Now you're suggesting that they stick it to the man by purchasing it in a way that is more time-consuming and fiddly.

“Really ** ? I don't buy all these threats to send children to state school and some how overwhelm the state sector. Only a couple of people have gone from my children's school and both their families will probably breathe a financial sigh of relief as they constantly were stretched.

Everyone else I chat too seems reigned to taking the hit because their reasons for sending their child private haven't changed.”

@WindsurfingDreams - I think it must depend on area and the state schools in question. Where I live we have many excellent state schools and we have state grammars too. The real demand is for state grammar.
Our state primary offered outstanding wrap around and extra curricular across the board. So the choice our type of school vs a private prep was always difficult to make. The differences are not that big. The same applies to the grammars. The results are better than the private schools, you can purchase extra curricular easily locally etc. The equation is different depending on where you live.

@noblegiraffe I mean, they were already purchasing it. 🤷‍♀️ Now you're suggesting that they stick it to the man by purchasing it in a way that is more time-consuming and fiddly.“

I am not suggesting anything!
I am annoyed that for my DC in Year 6 the competition for grammar has ramped up significantly, compared to my other children, because of this ill-thought out policy. That is all. It is happening all around us and is very obvious!
So like every parent I have a desire to offer all my children similar opportunities. Which I probably now cannot do realistically and I have to explain to a 10 year old that they are just as clever as their siblings etc but things have changed.

I am not suggesting anything!

You said "other than the small class sizes everything can be purchased extracurricularly VAT free on the open market. And 1:1 tutoring or small class tutoring trumps smaller class sizes any day."

And you also said

"suddenly being told your choices are a “privilege” and you bought a luxury advantage so now your choices will be penalised with a privilege penalty, that buy the way won’t even help state schools anyway due to the pitiful amount likely to be raised (but the impact on you personally will be huge!)

So I think it is more than likely that many of those parents will reassess their choices, full stop."

Of course the choice of private school is a privilege and a luxury for the parents who are buying it. Why would being told that make them reassess their choice?

I mean, I get them rethinking their choice because it's now more expensive, but not because it has been referred to as a luxury. Oh, the scales have fallen from their eyes?

If that's the case then why do people send their children private? I always assumed the children who went to private schools in a grammar area were the ones who either lived too far from a grammar for the commute to be sensible or who didn't pass the entrance exam. Neither of those factors will change just because fees have gone up.

And on the other hand, if there are great state options easily available then that's a lovely relief for those parents who are overstretched in the private system, but you make it sound like you think its a bad thing?

@noblegiraffe - it is only the subjects they may struggle in at GCSE and there is Dr Frost/Seneca as well as a massive international online thriving tutoring business. I can get my kids an excellent Indian maths tutor tomorrow from India if I wanted to. They don’t need it, they are in grammars and have good teachers and I want them to work things out themselves with online resources so they are ready for uni! But the option is most definitely there.

@WindsurfingDreams - there aren’t enough places in grammar so it’s a bunfight currently.
I have had this conversation with so many parents locally. A lot of those who sent their kids to private school for primary are Asian and culturally believe private was better and that investing in your child’s education is the best possible thing you can do, even if it means foregoing other things. I think they are changing their mind.
Like I said this is specific to my locality.

Well if their children are bright enough to get in then fair play and hopefully that will bring some financial relief to those families.

And equally there will be plenty of children at the grammar whose parents could easily afford private and will have that choice if they don't get in

The grammar are trying to take more pupils…

@noblegiraffe - what is your view of fellow teachers in the private sector losing their jobs because of this policy?

Great, that's good news for all who want to go there then surely

Presumably they can go and fill one of the many spaces in the state sector we keep hearing about?

Or I know my children's private school is actively recruiting at the moment

@WindsurfingDreams - it depends on the subject specialism surely?

A lot of private school sports teachers or Latin or Russian teachers? Not sure what the demand is like in the state sector. Add in the complication that some have their own kids in private schools, it’s a mess.

Honestly sad as it is they are only facing the same as anyone with a niche expertise would if they are at risk of redundancy. I've been through it several times in my career with a niche specialism, it's just part of life.

And they can always look into things like tutoring.

It's sad for children affected and crap for those of us who have to belt tighten but it doesn't necessitate this level of handwringing.

2 In DS's year group so far. Small local independent. Other parents I've spoken to are waiting to hear about the increase first. Others are trying to see what can be saved by dropping some clubs as these do add a chunk to the fees. I think overall it will be more than anticipated.

“Honestly sad as it is they are only facing the same as anyone with a niche expertise would if they are at risk of redundancy. I've been through it several times in my career with a niche specialism, it's just part of life.”

Given we are told that every nurse/doctor/teacher etc leaving is a problem, I think there should at least be a plan in place to retrain if they wanted to? That would actually make sense if teacher retention is a key issue? If private schools are accused of poaching teachers trained at the state’s costs etc?

But it's only a tiny percentage who would have specialisms that aren't transferable directly to the state system. This seems like a tiny irrelevance in the grand scheme of things (rotten as it may be for the individuals)

I am not sure it is a tiny percentage. What is more we are being told there will be less demand for primary school teachers. So retraining opportunities for key areas where there are shortages seems like a really relevant question to me.

Only some schools will close/cut staff, only some of those staff won't find other jobs and of those only a few will have specialisms like russian and Latin which aren't generally taught in the private sector.

Of all the things to handwring about it seems an odd thing to pick

DD1 is in Year 2 in a London girls prep. Nobody has left the year group (24 pupils), this term here are 3 new starters from other preps. None of the parents seem to be fretting about the rise in fees and I can't see any of them considering moving to state (despite some very good state primaries in the area). The only worry is about the school being sustainable if enrolment numbers drop as it's a small school. But all current parents seem to be financially comfortable enough to absorb any rise in fees, and aren't cutting back in lifestyle spending.

I live in East London which is very diverse. The African, South Asian, East Asian and Eastern European parents I mix with just aren’t interested in these social justice arguments at all. In general they like selective schooling whether grammar or private. If you want to give them a leg up into elite universities due to their race, then it’s “cheers, thanks mate!” And an undercurrent of insult that you think they need it.

The angst about private schooling which seems deeply entwined with an angst over selective schooling appears to be people working out traumas and psychic damage over folks not getting into grammar school or assisted place schemes 30 or more years ago. We need strategies for today’s world. According to the ONS, 34.2% of children born in England and Wales had at least one foreign born parent in 2021. This doesn’t include all the children born to second generation parents who maintain their parents attitudes to education.

The demographics and attitudes are changing. And I feel this may be a last gasp of the old guard, equality of outcome left, in a broader sweep which is heading towards something much more practical.

@EmpressoftheMundane thank you for a very interesting post.
One of the reasons the Labour Party hates private schools is because they think they are stuffed with poshos.
I’m not sure what their reaction would be - if it were ever the case in the future - if it was pointed out to them that the majority of students at private schools were of non-British heritage or from overseas.

I agree a proper impact assessment should have been done.

One of the things I dislike about this policy is that I think it will disproportionately affect professional working women/mums.
I know 2 families where they are now switching their eldest kids into the state primary at age 7 (which is the switch point for us locally) but since there simply isn't the same quality of after school clubs/wraparound care available in both cases the mums are switching to working only 3 days a week, but over 5 days (so school hours).
One is a GP and the other is a Educational Psychologist for the local council.
So not only will HMRC have lost the tax on 40% of their previous earnings, but the local community will lose their expertise for the equivalent of 2 days a week!

My son goes to a small independent school without a sixth form. He is in Year 11 so no-one will pull their child out just before GCSEs. However, most of the parents are planning to send their child to a state school for sixth form.
Usually, people are more likely to send their children to private school sixth forms. Roughly 15% of sixth formers are privately educated but I think less people will move from state to private than before.

russian and Latin which aren't generally taught in the private sector.

but Latin is a standard in PS? 🤔