How many kids do you know definitely leaving private for state?

[Quodraceratops]

I'd be very interested to know how many children people know of who are definitely leaving their private school for a state school - not people with plans to do so in future years, solely those definitely going now / in 2025.
For myself - large Scottish all years school, I only have knowledge of my early primary kids's classes - no-one leaving so far (but I'm guessing early primary may be less affected as Labour have been signalling this policy for a while so you wouldn't start if you couldn't afford VAT).

We will be £50-60k better off once (if) both our children move from PS - that goes a long way to being able to move. It’s not just the VAT element those moving are saving but the total fees meaning moving very much an option for lots of people. We are too late (DC2 in Y6) otherwise would consider it.

I’ve just dropped DC2 at an exam to get a guaranteed place at a state academy (London), she’s Y6. 100s of children there including lots from PS and families inherent considering state. I’m not saying for a moment that these kids have any more chance of getting the places than those who have been to state primaries but the odds have changed due to the numbers.

This. Around our area many people have made the trade off of living in a cheaper area and having to travel to a private school, rather than pay for a house in a good school catchment (which are often very small). Given you’d be looking at an extra £100K if not more for the same number of bedrooms in Cambridge vs in one of the villages, plus the cost and expense of moving, it would be cheaper to keep children in their current phase of education. I suspect many people will have to join waiting lists and cross their fingers

Parents who are paying upwards of £18k per child per year in fees can’t afford a house move if they drop the fee commitment?! They are the ones who are most likely to be able to afford it. And they will happily move to a safe state school catchment for a fee saving of upwards of £100k per child over secondary years.

There are a number in our school who’ve already done it and many more to follow

Agree for those who are already established in a certain stage of education. But for those approaching transition (particularly for secondary), parents are pulling out all the stops to get them into the state sector. The effect of this policy is going to be felt years down the line when these parents opt for state over private. I fully agree the minority will be pulling out suddenly

Our in year applications go directly to the school. The LA will get involved if the parents can’t get any places themselves.

There is also the appeal route. I got 2 of my DDs enrolled using appeals after being rejected due to being over subscribed.

But the differential is over the lifetime of education - on fees of £100k (5x £20K per year), you’ll pay an extra £20k over the lifetime of the five years if you’re already committed to paying fees. You’ll pay a damn sight more to move house, and it’s only worth it if you’re going from full fees plus VAT to no fees at a good state.

I agree entirely that at transition points you will see many more children moving. But all of our secondaries have catchment primaries and distance criteria so you’ll need to move school by y6 and also house to guarentee a place. If you’re currently y5 you will really need to get your skates on, and if you haven’t moved already by y6 you will have no chance.

That said, this is only a problem for the next couple of years in my area, as the birth rate fell off a cliff after 2013. This year’s y4 class will have a very different experience applying for secondary than this year’s y7, where there wasn’t a single left in county on offers day, and several schools took bulge years.

Yes, our cohort is approaching a natural transition point and I can see a considerable (some may say massive) shift. The year below is also reconsidering their options so it's going to be even more difficult next year as they will be thoroughly tutored unlike our year.

But that’s £20k per child more so families with multiple will have a saving of more than double that. Plus you’ve not accounted for fee increases. Also factor in house price appreciation when in catchment of a good state school and the savings are massive. We’ve done the calculations many times over and moved at the beginning of the year (even though my DC aren’t in Y6 yet). Once DC1 is in secondary, I will drop my hours to PT as we have no fees to fund. We are the family that were never committed to secondary private because the fees are so much higher than prep - plus only went private for primary for wraparound care. So our move was likely to happen irrespective of VAT, the threat just made us commit and jump sooner.

Your second point comes down to local variation. Good state secondaries here don’t have feeder schools - their entrance criteria are dominated by distance with some also having places for music/sports etc. The super selective are 100% academic selection.

None. Ours left several years ago but younger siblings of old friends have stayed.

I also assume PS parents in prep in Year 6 are chatting to each other about this and moving in cohorts? Just like we do in state primaries? So the cohort effect gives them comfort- all moving together? I doubt there isn’t a private school in the country without a VAT on school fees WhatsApp group?

A couple from my children's (reasonably large) school, one left over the summer one whose parents are actively trying to find a place. The year 7 intake was same size as usual.

The two we know of, mentioned above, both the families were constantly stressed by the stretch to find the fees anyway so I expect in time it will come at quite a relief to them.

There's a few mutterings about belt tightening from others but no really obvious displays of financial change (everyone still has their expensive cars etc)

The argument that this will make private schools the preserve of the elite has been running for decades.

Even if you accept the fact that it is literally the point of them.

Private schools have been becoming more out of reach for middle class families as fees have risen well above inflation (along with facilities)

In 1980 average school fees were 20% of median income.

By 2014 they were 50%

There will always be people at the margins who cannot afford a price increase and plenty of people over the last 20 years pushed out of private into state.

@DibbleDooDah Unfortunately the additional one teacher in each school it’s going to fund is going to make absolutely no difference at all.

It's not even that - it's 6,500 teachers in total which works out at about 1/3 of a teacher per school. And no detail on where they are suddenly going to find these teachers.

There's also a plan for a mental health professional in every school - so I do hope there are 23,000 of those sitting around twiddling their thumbs. DD's school has 435 pupils in each year group, so even 1 full time...

And no detail on where they are suddenly going to find these teachers.

I spoke to one of the MPs. They plan to get brand new inexperienced (cheap) ones. Not old ones who know what they are doing but left due to crappy pay and poor conditions. So it’ll be years and years before any are seen over and above the normal annual targets (that are missed annually anyway).

Art test?

2, they're siblings

Or rather - eldest sibling is not staying for private school 6th form, as was original plan; youngest sibling-at state primary - won't be starting private at Y7, as was plan. Middle sibling will stay where they are (private).

My son is currently in Y11 at a private school, which does not have a sixth form. Most of the parents in his year, are planning on sending their child to a state sixth form. We also plan on moving our son to a state sixth form that is selective. We already live in the the catchment area of a non-selective sixth form but this is not our first choice. We will have this as a backup plan but we will try and move our son to a selective state sixth form at a grammar school and another reasonably selective sixth form nearby.

Interestingly a kid has joined our private day school (I'm a teacher) from a boarding school and I wonder if we'll see that trend

@arlequin - as it is an unfair and anomalous tax, internationally speaking, I think parents will aim to somehow “make up” the tax. A move from boarding to day might achieve that, as well as, for example, keeping a younger child in state for longer etc. or moving an older child to a State Sixth Form.
It is a daft tax because there are umpteenth ways to avoid it! I fully expect anyone and everyone to do just that, to make up somehow for an unfair tax in their behaviour.

It is a daft tax because there are umpteenth ways to avoid it!

When one of the 'easy' ways to avoid it seems to be 'use state schools', one wonders why people bother putting their kid in a private school in the first place when they could avoid the fees as well as the 'unfair tax'.

People place different value on a private education- for some it is an outright luxury in the same way a designer handbag is a luxury - it connotes social value while doing effectively no better than the much cheaper alternative. Those people have better state school options than I do and/or have NT children. Most people, however, recognise that there is some benefit to private education- how much that is worth will vary depending on the school choices available, family income as well as the needs of the child.

if the objective of a tax is to raise revenue it has to consider impact on consumer behaviour, which is @Araminta1003 ’s point. Those using private ed selectively based on perceived value/ benefit (the majority of PE parents) will just become more selective about how they spend their education budget, and that means more state education into the mix. Not a bad thing for those individuals necessarily, but it does mean very little money will be raised for the state.

Those of us who place an exceedingly high value on private education because we have children who weren’t thriving in state feel a bit stuffed, though.

I do wonder what these private school parents are going to think when they find out the state the education system that they've been buying their way out of for years is actually in.

We know the state it's in. That's exactly why we have been buying our way out of it.

And yet the pp said "It is a daft tax because there are umpteenth ways to avoid it! I fully expect anyone and everyone to do just that, to make up somehow for an unfair tax in their behaviour."

Either the state system is in a dreadful state worth paying lots of money to get out of, or actually it's an 'easy' way to dodge an 'unfair tax' which amounts to far less than the original fees.