How many kids do you know definitely leaving private for state?

[Quodraceratops]

I'd be very interested to know how many children people know of who are definitely leaving their private school for a state school - not people with plans to do so in future years, solely those definitely going now / in 2025.
For myself - large Scottish all years school, I only have knowledge of my early primary kids's classes - no-one leaving so far (but I'm guessing early primary may be less affected as Labour have been signalling this policy for a while so you wouldn't start if you couldn't afford VAT).

As Sweetpea says (thank you) I was responding to Popcorntv regarding secondary school places (should have tagged them).

If she applies for a secondary school place for her child, they will have to offer her something. Even if that's a place in a school that is nominally full.

I don't understand how Popcorntv is getting rejected - how does it work in your LA? For an in year admission in our LA, you apply using the LA form, give your first 3 choices and you either get a space at one or the LA give you one at the closest school with places. You can't go around racking up rejections.

Do other LAs do things differently?

Do other LAs do things differently?

In my LA you have to apply to the schools directly and if full they can reject you though I think you can appeal or use the Fair Access Protocol (which I know absolutely nothing about!)

Regarding leg-ups; for a couple of years, my NHS dept decided they wouldn't be taking any more 'work experience' kids because the HR for 16-17 year olds was too onerous.

But interestingly the flow of private-schooled consultants' kids looking at medicine didn't dry up. It was just the state school kids who had to go through the proper channels.

They were there because they were consultants' kids, so it's a different kind of leg-up.

At DD's prep school, in the past only zero to one child per year went to state secondary at 11+ (out of about 30 - 40 children). This year, there were five.
At a neighbouring prep school, in the past quite a few got into Tiffin Girls' School / Nonsuch but again usually only 0 - 1 went to grammar school. This year, 10 (!) girls went to grammar school (out of 45 girls).
That's a huge increase of parents choosing state secondaries at 11+ (and crowding less fortunate families out of outstanding / high performing state schools - well done, Keir Starmer!!).

I do wonder how many more children sat for our local grammar this year (Latymer) - or, if it’s the same, how many more students will take their offered place over, say, Highgate.

Not an avenue I’m going down personally (selective grammar), but I’m curious to see.

Different area, same story. Historically 1-2 children moved onto state sector from our prep school. The class that finished in July 2024 had 12 and more than half of the current Y6 are planning to go to state (with 5 having moved house in the past 12 months to be able to get into a better school).

I can absolutely guarantee not one is going to be entering poorly performing secondaries and all the good ones in both ours and neighbouring boroughs have noted surges in applicants from private sector for y7. This policy is making the divide wider and wider.

Yes I agree with you here. You won’t jump from private prep to whatever secondary. You’ll either spend the money on moving next to a high performing state secondary, or you’ll go for grammar.

I personally think grammars are a little less morally okay than private schools because the only children that get into the one near us are heavily tutored ones with pushy parents and money. Not exactly an option for all, and it’s all funded via public money. So basically a free private school for already wealthy parents.

We had some more leave us school this week as they got state school places - makes me wonder how many are on waiting lists now

Absolutely zero but then I teach in the state sector and I am not in the same circles as those who send their children to a private school.

None but two prep schools in our area went under over the summer.

Anecdotally, I know of three families who never considered grammars, mainly because there is virtually no sport there, but now sat the tests for a few, including Latymer. They say they met half if not two thirds of their PS classes at the gates.

It's going to be a very "interesting" admission year, to put it mildly.

Retracting my message up thread which stated that only one out of 200 had left our year 10 class. Turns out it's at least 5, with several having left in the past few days (after term had started) - presumably as spots in state schools became apparent (apparently quite a few kids just don't turn up on the first day of term and, after a few days of waiting to see if they appear, their spots are released to the waiting list).

@Retrecir

Year 10 is significant...
This is a sign of what's to come

There have already been moves to change the entrance criteria for grammar schools to prioritize kids from lower income families, and I would be surprised if we did not make more concerted moves in the years ahead in this direction. because if we do see a big increase in the number of “prep school kids” going to grammar, it is going to make all the vague burbling about the “marvelous social mobility” offered by grammars look pretty hollow, and will prompt some demands for more far reaching changes to the intake rule.

(In much the same way as, many universities further shifted in the direction of “contextualizing” state vs private school applicants after it became clear that many private schools blatantly inflated their exam results during Covid, much more than the state schools did. I am not trying to bash private schooling, my elder DD goes to a non-UK private school, but frankly it was awful behavior, and I am not surprised that there has been a bit of a backlash. I can remember some of the anger among the state school parents in the UK who I talked to, when the exam inflation stuff was in the news. It is possibly one reason why the VAT thing has been so popular among state school parents, to be honest)

It does occur to me, though, that the private sector may be missing a trick here. grammar schools actually get less funding per head than other state secondaries due low levels of PP, their facilities are similar to other state schools, their classes are usually big as they let in all the applicants they can. My DD goes to a private school outside the UK which is like that (we chose private because we wanted a bilingual school for my English speaking DD, not for little classes and marvelous music and sport) which is why it is affordable. Looking at the fact that many private school parents are happily turning to grammars as an alternative, it looks to me like there may well be a market for no-frills private secondary schools in many cities, i.e. with normal class sizes and facilities, and entrance exams to ensure intakes which are able to keep up with a more “stretching” curriculum. I am surprised that there has not been more conversation in the UK sector about providing for this.

@GreenTeaLikesMe the problem in our area with adjusted entrance is it only accounts for PP pupils and uptake is very very low. There are a huge number of lower income families that don’t meet PP criteria and they are the ones who stand to lose most from this. Many of them on outskirts of good school catchments and due to be pushed out.

The problem with lower cost privates is that the actual cost is still significantly higher than the state equivalent to run. My DC go to something bit like you describe - class sizes smaller than state but big for private sector. Facilities on a par with many state schools (visit a neighbouring school for sports facilities) but lots of specialist teaching and comprehensive wraparound care. Fees lower than most of the private sector but still much higher than state funding figures because of staffing.

Grammar schools have quite a bit of flexibility on catchment too.

So the qualifying score is set, with a lower qualifying score for PP.

Then if there are still places available they will go to the highest scores out of catchment (usually it's a about 10% of every year group)

Grammar schools can easily lower the qualifying score to let in more local kids. The out of catchment kids tend to be wealthier as they have to factor in travel costs etc.

But the notion that all PS kids will 'just take up all the grammar places' is optimistic on their part.

Also, Mumsnet is massively over inflated on this. There are about 5% children in grammar in very few areas in the country. It's really not an option for most.

“But the notion that all PS kids will 'just take up all the grammar places' is optimistic on their part.”

Kent publishes the amount of local children vs independent/Out of County for all the scores. It is obvious that the latter dominate the highest scores substantially. Go take a look.
What is more Kent still allows kids to move after the grammar dates.

Whatever social mobility/VAT/state vs private for uni the powers to be want to introduce, there will always be ways to get around it. The whole of the UK is set up to game the system one way or another. More and more efforts to thwart that actually end up having the opposite effect.

I may be wrong but the PS kids can't just take state places. They have to qualify for the place same as everyone else. Yes they may have more options in terms of social mobility but if they can't afford the extra vat then I doubt they can afford the house move (and probably would not want to live in most state school safe catchment areas anyway.

If all state schools were equal then it really wouldn’t be half as problematic. Those with money will tutor for grammar or move into the catchment areas of the “best” schools in the current environment. It’s just paying for education but in a different way and offers no way of introducing equality.

In many big towns there’s always one school that everyone wants to go to and one that everyone wants to avoid. If you can make all schools desirable with good outcomes then the state system becomes much fairer.

Schools and teachers have been burdened with crippling budget cuts, ridiculous amounts of admin work, huge class sizes, behaviour issues and the fallout on mental health from covid. Not one of these has been caused by the existence of private schools, but falls firmly at the door of successive decisions by various governments.

My DC are at private school (one has SEN) and I would be happy paying VAT if I knew for sure it would help level things up. Unfortunately the additional one teacher in each school it’s going to fund is going to make absolutely no difference at all.

I predict huge increases in applications for state school places for Y7 and Y12. People will stay where they are for now if they can scrape through, but for those who can’t it’s going to be an interesting journey. My nearest state secondary school with Y7 spaces is 16 miles away. There’s 21 closer secondary schools, some “desirable” and some not so. But there’s no spaces. Years of bad planning by our local council.

@Chillilounger no they can’t take them but doing this to Private schools isn’t an equaliser, parents will buy privilege in other ways. And yes they’ll move to better areas for better schools or spend more on tutors for Grammar 11+’s. It’s always the way.

What this policy does is drive private schools towards more elite families that can afford the fees, increasing inequality further. It’s an ill thought out policy with zero financial gain.

One but my kid's year was already hugely down on expected numbers joining at Reception. We know people who wanted to join but in the end didn't. They ran 3 smaller classes instead of the usual 4. We're still deciding what to do but will see this school year out. Pretty sure we'll make the application for state in case we can't earn the extra money needed to pay VAT by Sept 2025. We know what state school we like and fortunately it's our closest. Seems to have had a huge turn around under a new head since we looked at it previously.