How many kids do you know definitely leaving private for state?

[Quodraceratops]

I'd be very interested to know how many children people know of who are definitely leaving their private school for a state school - not people with plans to do so in future years, solely those definitely going now / in 2025.
For myself - large Scottish all years school, I only have knowledge of my early primary kids's classes - no-one leaving so far (but I'm guessing early primary may be less affected as Labour have been signalling this policy for a while so you wouldn't start if you couldn't afford VAT).

Actually I think this is discrimination- a crude metric of previous school isn't means testing, and I wonder if this type of policy will see a legal challenge.

Feeder schools are allowed as long as transparent and reasonable .
It is in the Code.
Our local Sixth Forms attached to schools are also mostly grade selective so everyone here expects both the 11 plus for grammar and Sixth Form entry to be really competitive in the next couple of years. It’s not just a question of getting in either, it is also a question of studying your preferred A levels as priority goes to the top grades at GCSE in many schools,

Our wider area has 4-5 private secondaries of various sizes, DC are Year 11 in one of the medium-sized ones. So potentially there could be a lot of movement after GCSE, at least that's what we hear among DC friend group.

Most of the state 6th forms are within secondary schools, so in the event of oversubscription would prioritise existing pupils over external applicants (no mention of YUCK PRIVATE thank goodness, I agree that if a policy really worded it this way, that sounds discriminatory).

There are only a few actual 6th form colleges within reach of us and not all offer the subjects that DC are interested in. So we are planning to focus our efforts on the two nearest that have relevant subjects, the thinking being that at least DC won't be back of the queue for being external applicants and then we only have to worry about distance as an oversubscription criterion.

I wonder how this is worded? Is it something like "we give priority to DC currently attending x,y or z schools?". Which is not unusual for sixth forms (or indeed secondary schools).

or does it refer to schools without sixth forms as getting priority? We have a large sixth form college nearby which gives priority to pupils at schools without sixth forms (since schools with sixth forms prioritise their own pupils). Effect would be to prioritise state over private but that is not the reason. Seems incredible that somewhere would expressly disadvantage private school pupils since they do, as said above, have the right to state education as anyone else.

It's this. The vast majority of secondary schools in our county don't have sixth forms and the post-16 education has traditionally been delivered via the state 6th form colleges.

It’s interesting how much things vary between different areas. I was amazed how early the application cut offs are in some areas too.

Are the admission policies for the state Sixth forms all the same @TinyCarpetRake? Will it leave your dc at a significant disadvantage if they do move from their private school?

@Muchtoomuchtodo There's no "if" about DC moving from private, we will be giving notice in spring term so they will finish GCSEs and then leave at the end of summer term 🤷🏻‍♀️

Both 6th form colleges have similar oversubscription criteria, they don't mention any feeder schools or anything about prioritising schools without 6th forms - so basically comes down to distance from home. There are a couple of school-linked 6th forms we were looking at but they have existing pupils prioritised above externals, distance is the final tie-breaker. So I would assume that DC will be at significant disadvantage if they apply to the school-linked 6th forms, but have a fair crack at the 6th form colleges... as long as there are not a flood of fellow private-school leavers who happen to live closer than we do!!

Just back from DC1 Y6 induction. Seven new starters across the school today. Some won’t be due to leaving private schools I am sure but I was surprised at the number in a relatively small primary on week two of term.

Are these the schools that DC would have gone to if you'd not chosen private for secondary education?

Obviously this varies by area, but the school linked sixth forms near us have a fairly broad intake at 16 (e.g. my DC's school sixth form has about a third external applicants) so entrants coming from the private sector who live in the school catchment are pretty much guaranteed a place even if they are nominally below existing students in priority order.

I see. It sounds as if there is a lot of Sixth form provision in your area which is great for your dc and you definitely know that you are in a position to get applications submitted.

We are limited by dc wanting to carry on with their learning through the medium of Welsh so they only had one option. There aren’t any private schools, even in Wales, who offer Welsh medium education. The plus side of this is that as long as they achieve the required grades at GCSE there is a place for them at their school’s Sixth form and no new joiners (unless moving from another Welsh medium school) to compete against.

The issue is that widely recognised number of 7% of PS kids in reality means about 20% in 6th form. Whilst there are places available in primaries (depends on area though), there is most likely no capacity to accommodate ex PS kids in 6th form

It is very important that DC are able to chose the right A levels for whatever course they want to do at uni. Anyone stressed about 6th form places, please remember this. Look at the uni courses you may be aiming for and figure out what subjects are required.

The issue is that widely recognised number of 7% of PS kids in reality means about 20% in 6th form. Whilst there are places available in primaries (depends on area though), there is most likely no capacity to accommodate ex PS kids in 6th form

I think it probably varies massively around the country. In our area a lot of the schools have 6th forms although most aren't huge and I think they probably give priority to their own students understandably. Then there are the 6th form colleges that mostly focus on BTECs and vocational courses plus a limited number of A levels.

As I said above, my DD is at a huge 6th form and unusually it offers both a huge range of A levels (allowed in any combination) and lots of vocational courses. I suspect that's why it's been overwhelmed with applications this year. It doesn't ask for high entry grades (min 5 GCSEs at 4 to do A-levels but higher for specific subjects e.g. a 7 for Maths) and I don't think it has any oversubscription criteria, I'm not sure it's ever been oversubscribed! Maybe that will change after this year.

What I would say is that if you think your child will move to a state school/college next year, start looking now. DD's college has open evenings in Oct and actually now looking on the website, the official closing date is in Feb if you want to stand a good chance of getting your first choices.

My sixth form would be very happy with an influx of private school kids. More kids = more funding.

But @noblegiraffe if more students mean more funding then doesn't that mean that the education budget will need to be increased.

If it doesn't increase then that would mean that funding per pupil across the country would reduce (more students/ same amount of money).

That's up for debate because of a predicted decline in pupil numbers over the next few years due to lower birth rates, so it could end up being absorbed by that.

I think sixth form is the one place where there might be a bit of a squeeze, because the no of kids currently private is high at about 20%, and the lower birthrate cohorts are much younger - there are still loads of 16-18yos.

It will remain to be seen how likely parents are to switch from private to state sixth form. Of course, they may be less likely to switch because "It's an important period, it's only a couple of years, we'll find the money somehow." Not like having a 4yo at private prep and cringing at the thought of another 14 years of fees.

I agree about the likelihood of a 6th form squeeze becoming an issue - supposedly my DC were in the midst of the early-2000s "baby boom" which caused such a squeeze in their primary admissions back in the day, it naturally follows that they're still going to experience the school places squeeze in 6th form. Which could be further artificially exacerbated by pupils leaving private school due to the VAT thing (including us, hah). Plus, I'm not so sure about how many people would stick it out for private 6th form, as the upper years would be the most expensive in fees.

Also, despite the lower birthrate in younger years, the need for school places is not going to be evenly distributed. Sad stories about infant schools closing in London doesn't help my neighbours here in the North of England, who were unable to get their DC into the 3 nearest primaries to us and were pretty damn pissed off.

The lack of organisation around school places in this country drives me mad. In other countries, the councils check annually how many children are in each family and what their ages are and there is some actual organisation around schooling. It is only those moving in last minute, a small minority, that would then catch them by surprise.
There is literally no excuse for not inventing a better system to plan for school places across the board and have funding automatically applied from Central Government for it.

Just received rejection number 11 for DC1. But good news we have a waiting list number for this school. It’s 64.

Your local authority are obliged to find you a school place if you want one, even if it means a school taking an extra student. (They are not obliged to find you a place at your school of choice).

The councils have always relied on a certain number of pupils going private and not budgeted for school places for those children. A councillor at Surrey county council is on record as acknowledging this fact a few years back.

I read the other day that one council asked the parent to prove they can no longer afford the fees.

Now some of those children need state school spaces, guess what there is no money and no space even if there is a statutory right to one.

I don't think there is a strict class size for secondary places so arguably they can squeeze extras into existing classes.
I think what has caused the biggest issue is the speed at which the policy is being bought in.

No opportunity for schools or parents to plan. It was a vote winner and it worked.

Had the plan been phased in properly then I don't there would be this panic around lack of spaces in SOME areas

I don't think there's a statutory right to a sixth form place?

I don't think there's a statutory right to a sixth form place?

Noble, I think (not sure mind) that Redsky was responding to Popcorn regarding secondary school places.

But the 6th form issue is an interesting one. Like you said earlier, colleges will welcome bums on seats but it could be that in future more 6th form colleges will have feeder schools. Maybe late applicants will have to choose subjects that weren't their first choice or maybe everyone would be more limited in the subjects that they could do to make it fairer. My DD's language class only has 14 students in it despite being one of only two places to offer it in about a twenty mile radius, maybe students would be offered a place if they offered to do a subject that has low uptake.